Climate Change Impacts

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PRESENTATION OF C-CIARN BRITISH COLUMBIA
Stewart J. Cohen, Ph.D. 1) Adaptation
Impacts Research Group (AIRG), Meteorological
Service of Canada, Environment Canada 2)
Institute for Resources, Environment
Sustainability University of British Columbia,
Vancouver
Presented to the Senate Standing Committee on
Forestry and Agriculture, Ottawa, Feb. 4, 2003.
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Summary of Briefing

• Temperature and precipitation have increased in
  British Columbia
• Observed warming has affected growing season
  length and the mountain pine beetle
• Projected impacts include continued lengthening
  of the growing season, increased crop water
  demand, and increased risk of fire and pest
  infestations
• Important regional concerns include N.E. BC
  forests, agriculture in the Okanagan, flood risks
  in the Georgia Basin, and fisheries coastal
  erosion in coastal areas
• More research is needed to better understand
  adaptation to climate change, and how this could
  affect resource management regional
  developmenta role for C-CIARN B.C.

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Outline of Presentation

• Climate trends in British Columbia
• Climate Impacts Adaptation Assessment cases
  from B.C.
• Okanagan/Columbia water, agriculture and other
  users
• Forestry pests, fire
• Expanding the Dialogue on Climate Impacts
  AdaptationC-CIARN B.C.

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Average temperatures are increasing in BC
Change in temperature over 20th Century ( C/100
years)Source BC Ministry of Water, Land and Air
Protection Environmental Trends, 2000
www.gov.bc.ca/wlap
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Nighttime minimum temperatures are rising faster
than daytime maximums.
Source BC Ministry of Water, Land and Air
Protection Environmental Trends, 2000
www.gov.bc.ca/wlap
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Glaciers in retreat
Source IPCC, Third Assessment Report, 2001
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Precipitation has increased in southern BC
Change in precipitation over 20th Century (
/decade)Source BC Ministry of Water, Land and
Air Protection Environmental Trends, 2000
www.gov.bc.ca/wlap
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Lake river ice is melting earlier in northern
and interior BC
Change in date of first melt, 1945-1993 (
days/decade)Source BC Ministry of Water, Land
and Air Protection Environmental Trends, 2000
www.gov.bc.ca/wlap
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Water Management Climate Change in the
Okanagan/Columbia
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Water Resources in the Columbia River Basin
System objectives affected by winter flows Winter
hydropower production (PNW demand) System
objectives affected by summer flows Flood
control Summer hydropower production (California
demand) Irrigation Instream flow for
fish Recreation
Source Alan Hamlet University of Washington
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Columbia Basin Impacts of Climate Change on
Streamflow

• Less snow, earlier melt means less water in
  summer
• irrigation
• urban uses
• fisheries protection
• energy production
• More water in winter
• energy production
• flooding

Natural Columbia River flow at the Dalles, Oregon
Source P. Mote, University of Washington
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Will the Columbia Basin System meet its Water
Management Objectives in the 2040s?
Source Alan Hamlet University of Washington
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Okanagan Climate Change ScenarioImplications
for Water Management
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Projected changes in Growing Degree Days (gt 5 C)
Kelowna Airport (Brewer Taylor, 2001)
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Projected Crop Water Demand
Irrigation district Allocation Reported Use Crop water demand Crop water demand Source
1996-99 1961-1990 2069-2090
Oliver 75.4 26.1 21.6 29.4 Main channel
Penticton 8.0 7.4 6.6 9.1 Tributary Main
Summerland 20.9 9.7 13.7 19.1 Tributary
Naramata 13.6 1.9 3.7 4.9 Tributary
Source Denise Neilsen, Agriculture Agrifood
Canada
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Overview of Okanagan study catchments
Daves Cr. (31 km2)
Whiteman Cr. (114 km2)
Pearson Cr. (73 km2)
Camp Cr. (34 km2)
Bellevue Cr. (78 km2)
Vaseux Cr. (117 km2)
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Intra-annual flow variability (Daves Cr.)
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Intra-annual flow variability (Whiteman Cr)
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Stakeholder views on adaptation
Engaging dialogue to identify adaptation
strategies to scenarios of streamflow reductions
during the growing season in the Okanagan Basin

• adaptation dialogue is just beginning...

Preferred adaptation options among the
stakeholders?Structural (e.g. building upland
dams) and social measures (e.g., buy out water
licenses) preferred over institutional measures
Some implications of their choices?Stakeholders
identified the high cost of dams, associated
impacts on fisheries, and difficulties in
restricting development as possible implications
of their adaptation choices.
Web site http//www.sdri.ubc.ca/publications
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Water Management Climate Change in the
OkanaganStudy Framework
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Forest Management Climate Change in Interior
and Northern British Columbia
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(No Transcript)
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Mountain Pine Beetle limits

• Cool summers
• Winter minimums (below -40C)

Source Allan Carroll Canadian Forest Service
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Areas of susceptible pine and Mountain Pine
Beetle (MPB) infestation since 1910
10
1500
1250
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• Frequent large-scale MPB outbreaks during
  last century
• Size of outbreaks correlated with increase
  in susceptible pine

1000
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Area of susceptible pine (ha 106)
750
MPB outbreak area (ha 103)
4
500
2
250
0
0
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
Source Allan Carroll Canadian Forest Service
Year
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Climatically suitable habitat for the mountain
pine beetle
Source Allan Carroll Canadian Forest Service
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Scenario changes to fire weather, BC and
Alberta(Mackenzie Basin Impact Study, 1997)
1980s
2050s
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In SE B.C., Lodgepole Pine seedlings can achieve
greater yield if planted at elevations higher
than their origin!
Source Greg ONeill, BCMOF
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Research has identified some important potential
impacts for forestry and agriculture in British
Columbia

• BC is already experiencing climate change
• Glaciers are receding, affecting summertime water
  supply
• Future water supply will be affected by changes
  in timing of snowmelt watersheds will likely
  have more water in winter and less in summer
• Growing seasons will lengthen and become warmer
• Forest pest and fire risks will likely increase
  in interior BC, and expand to higher elevations
  and latitudes

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Impacts Adaptation Research in British
Columbia Important New Questions

• How will water supply and demand change?
• Increasing population and changes in land use may
  limit our ability to adapt to water supply
  changes.
• Climate change may constrain possible adaptation
  strategies, such as expanded irrigation, and
  controlled reservoir releases to support
  fisheries and electric power production.
• How will climate change alter forest management?
• Reforestation plans have to consider climate
  changes over the lifetime of newly planted trees.
• What will future harvest levels be, and can they
  sustain communities?
• How will climate risks change for communities?
• Are businesses and governments making planning
  and management decisions based on the assumption
  that climate will not change?
• How can uncertain climate scenarios be
  incorporated into assessments of risks and
  opportunities?

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C-CIARN B.C. is Expanding the Dialogue on
Climate Impacts Adaptation

• C-CIARN BC and partners are holding workshops
  with academic researchers
• UBC, Okanagan College, University of Victoria,
  Malaspina College, Simon Fraser University
• C-CIARN BC and partners are initiating dialogue
  with stakeholders throughout BC
• Columbia Basin (Cranbrook), northern BC (UNBC and
  region)
• Through this process, stakeholders and
  researchers are raising concerns about
• Need for expanded monitoring programs
• Vulnerability of regional economies and questions
  about adaptation options
• Concerns about impacts on health and lifestyle
• Unknown potential for surprise impacts

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C-CIARN BC is Promoting New Research
Opportunities in Climate Impacts Adaptation

• Encourage stakeholder participation in earliest
  phases of impacts/adaptation research.
• Promotes interdisciplinary collaboration and the
  application of local knowledge and experience
• Identify potential new vulnerabilities or
  adaptation opportunities that should be studied.
• Adapting to climate change is about becoming more
  resilient to current and future climate
  variability and risks

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C-CIARN B.C. Advisory Committee
Affiliates Agriculture and Agrifood Canada
(AAFCa) BC Hydro Canadian Association of
Physicians for the Environment Canadian Columbia
River Inter-Tribal Fisheries Commission Community
Representative (East Kootenays) Environment
Canada (EC) Greater Vancouver Regional
District (GVRD) Ministry of Water Land and Air
Protection (MWLAP) Okanagan University College
(OUC) Royal Roads University (RRU) Simon Fraser
University (SFU) University of British Columbia
(UBC) University of Northern British Columbia
(UNBC) University of Victoria (UVic)
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More information http//britishcolumbia.c-ciarn.
ca Contact c-ciarn-bc_at_ires.ubc.ca