Analyzing a Release of the Secret Herbs and Spices

1
Analyzing a Release of the Secret Herbs and Spices

• Protecting the flock without giving up the recipe
• Charles Rives
• BW Pantex
• Pantex Plant Emergency Hazards Analyst
  Consequence Assessment Team Leader

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Summary

• An approach to developing a reasonable and
  conservative source term that allows an Emergency
  Planning Hazards Assessment (EPHA) to provide
  emergency decision-makers with information that
  they need to know during an emergency involving a
  release of materials with classified material
  quantities or identities.
• All discussion will be unclassified.
• This presentation uses a fictitious example of a
  scenario, material types and material quantities.

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Accuracy

• Accurate with regard to the most important
  decisions . . .
• When and where protective actions need to be
  implemented
• Emergency categorization and classification
• Deliberately inaccurate otherwise
• Honest about the inaccuracy

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Accuracy

• Each of these models is inaccurate in some way
  but can provide different users what they need to
  know.

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If

• Material-A has an PAC-2 value of
• 1 mg/m3 and
• We have 1 kg of it, then that one kg can fill a
  volume of 1x106 m3 with a concentration equal to
  PAC-2.
• (1kg)(1000g/1kg)(1000mg/g)(1m3/1mg)1x106 m3
• Then, if material-B has a PAC-2 value of 2 mg/m3,
  
• We can multiply the volume at PAC-2 for
  material-A by the PAC-2 number for material-B and
  come up with source term-B or STB.

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The Conversion - Graphically
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Source Term B

• STB(1x106 m3)(2mg/m3)2x106mg or 2kg
• I could represent a release of 1 kg of material-A
  with a 2 kg release of material-B.
• Or, if I have a mix of material-A and material-B,
  I could use this ratio and treat it all as either
  material-A or all as material-B and never even
  acknowledge that material-A was there
• (at least until the day that it actually happens
  when the rules can sort of change).

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Arithmetic

• Now, if I have a fictitious source term with 1 kg
  of material-A AND 1 kg of material-B, I could
  treat it like this
• 1 kg of A 1 kg of A
• 1 kg of B 2 kg of A
• 1 kg of A 1 kg of B 3 kg of A

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Fictional Scenario Background

• We make the best fried chicken in the world
• The Sultan of Absurdistan wants our chicken
  recipe for part of his global war on poultry
• We have to keep the recipe from him
• If we have an accident in the kitchen and spill
  the herbs and spices, we could endanger the flock

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Fictional Scenario CG

• /// ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS FICTIONAL AND
  UNCLASSIFIED ///
• The fact that we have the secret recipe for fried
  chicken (U)
• The fact that theres more than one herb or spice
  in the recipe (U)
• The fact that we use cayenne in our recipe (OUO)
• The amount of cayenne in the recipe (S)
• The fact that we use Red Chili in our recipe (S)
• The quantities and ratios of spices in the recipe
  (S)
• CLASSIFICATION IS FOR EXAMPLE PURPOSES ONLY

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Recipe (S)

• /// ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS FICTIONAL AND
  UNCLASSIFIED (and probably not very tasty) ///
• 1 Chicken (U)
• 1 kg Cayenne (S)
• 2 kg Red Chili (S)
• CLASSIFICATION IS FOR EXAMPLE PURPOSES ONLY

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Fictional Protective Action Criteria
No. PACs Based on 60-min. AEGLs, ERPGs, or TEELs PACs Based on 60-min. AEGLs, ERPGs, or TEELs PACs Based on 60-min. AEGLs, ERPGs, or TEELs Units Comments and Changes from PAC Rev XX
No. Chemical Name PAC 2 PAC 3 Units Comments and Changes from PAC Rev XX
F1 Chicken 200,000 400,000 mg/m3 Fictional
F2 Cayenne 10 30 mg/m3 Fictional
F3 Red Chilli 20 60 mg/m3 Fictional
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Converting all of the STs to their PAC Volume
Source Term A (kg) Material Fictional PAC-2 (mg/m3) PAC-2 Volume (m)
2 Chicken 20000 100
1 Cayenne 10 100000
2 Red Chili 20 100000
Total PAC-2 Volume 200100
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Converting a PAC volume back to Cayenne

• (PAC Volume)(PAC Concentration) ST Mass
• (200100 m3)(10mg/m3)(1kg/1E6 mg)2.001kg of
  Cayenne
• If the Sultan of Absurdistan tries to fry a
  chicken using just 2kg of Cayenne and nothing
  else, he wont like the result.

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Using the idea

• Combined several real materials into one
  pseudo-material
• Called it a representative pseudo-material
• Did the math and conversion in a classified
  document
• Used the pseudo material values in a sensitive
  unclassified document that we can share with
  people who have need-to-know

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An Important Distinction

• Didnt lie
• Told the audience that these are representative
  values
• Told them why the actual source term is concealed

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On the Day that it Actually Happens

• Need-to-know changes
• Emergency health and safety provisions can drive
  the Classified Matter Protection and Control
  (Very important to keep contractor and federal
  roles in mind during this process.)
• Pantex sponsors DOE clearances for certain
  off-site agency government officials. This
  allows a range of information releases for this
  event.

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Questions

• May need to be reviewed before answering
• Some unclassified answers may be ambiguous