The SEAPLANE Project

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The SEAPLANE Project

• 3. November 2005, Bergamo

Activity 3 Airport passenger market
analysis Realisation of suggested Routes Further
opportunities for airports
Dr Benedikt Mandel MKmetric Gesellschaft für
Systemplanung mbH, Karlsruhe
info_at_mkm.de
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Tasks

• Establishing the simulation framework
• Ex post Simulation of air passenger market
  potential - Computation- Analysis- Reference
  year 2000
• Ex ante Simulation of air passenger market
  potential - Computation- Analysis- Forecast
  horizon 2006
• Development of an Action Plan for inauguration of
  flights

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Input

• Socio-economy data (e.g. population, economic
  structure)
• Consideration of urbanisation and land use,
  infrastructure and motorization
• Consideration of political constraints and
  transport policy in all countries
• Consideration of competing transport modes in
  all countries
• Data on the NUTS 3 level for EU and according
  to the distance from EU with growing country
  agglomerations

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Methodology
Socio- economy
Ground-basedTransport
Travel Surveys
TransportPolicy

Reference Status System Approach - Generation
- Distribution - Modal Split - Route choice
- Assignment
Statistics, link counts
Matrix Bounding
Ex ante
Ex post
Workshop input, report action Plan
Commercial viable routes
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Methodology

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Specific assumptions

• Set up of scenario definitions for ex ante
  analysis (forecast) ? socio-economy, according
  to workshop and regional partners
  ? infrastructure update to 2004 including
  indications of regional partners ? network
  assumptions according to schedule summer 2004 ex
  VXO-CPH ? regionalisation incl. update for UK
  and split up of Møre og Romsdal area
• Forecast is for 2006 (perspective for
  inauguration of new routes)
• Economic limitations for inaugurating a new
  route ? annual demand gt 50 tsd. weighted
  passengers (5000 for charter) ? business
  pax are counted twice, ? transfer pax count
  50 when travelling for private reasons ?
  for charter and low cost flights no transfer
  passengers are counted ? for charter
  flights no business travellers are counted ?
  no double count for business travellers on low
  cost flights

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Output I

• Airports ? Oostende - OST, BE ? Hannover
  - HAJ, DE ? Bremen - BRE, DE ? Groningen
  - GRQ, NL ? Aalesund - AES, NO
  ? Kristiansand - KRS, NO ? Stavanger - SVG,
  NO ? Inverness - INV, UK ? Kristianstad
  - KID, SE ? Växjö - VXO, SE

• Time horizon - Scenario ? Ex post - 2000
  ? Ex ante - 2006

• Promotion ? European Commission
  ? Workshop
• ? Via partner regions and partner airports

• Action plan ? Content - airport, region,
  routes ? Lay out - two pages per route

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Output II
Analysis by airport total number of passengers
p.a., conditional aircraft movements,
catchment and traffic information, technica
l and commercial key figures.

Analysis by route new routes, total number
of passengers p.a., structure of the
demand, type and structure of
service, catchment and sheaf of the
route, market penetration figures.
Analysis by region socio-economic data in total
and relative to the catchment, changes in
accessibility by air transport, transport key
figures.
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Improvement of Accessibility by new Routes
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Action Plans

• description of the airport and the region incl.
  status quo catchment with socio-economic data
• for each feasible new route ?? total demand by
  business / leisure, OD / transfer
  passengers ? route sheaf for transfer
  passengers ? route specific catchment ?
  suggestions for aircraft / airline / schedule ?
  summary of relevant technical aspects
• demand forecast for the airport incl. the new
  routes
• key figures concerning additional passenger
  a/c mileage, fuel consumption, passenger hours
  saved
• improvement of accessibility

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Action Plan Improvement

• The Action Plans were presented at the Hannover
  workshop in 2004.
• The Action Plan issued for Hannover airport has
  been used as material for the latest ROUTES
  conference. A review meeting at Hannover will
  take place in 11/2005
• Numerous routes suggested within the project
  have been set into service.
• Various responses to the Action Plans lead to an
  improvement of this form of presenting
  results, enriched with additional
  information, to be used within the forthcoming
  EUROPLANE project, now called Implementation
  Folder

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New Routes inaugurated
? 1 year ago, more than 90 routes were identified
for 2006, 22 of them are or will be in
service already 2005

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8 New Routes Inverness

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5 New Routes Hannover

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5 New Routes Scandinavia

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4 New Routes other

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Results for Bremen
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Consultation in Bremen
? From 13 suggested routes just 1 is for
scheduled service, while all other focus on
holiday destinations. ? Only 1 of the suggested
holiday routes was implemented. In addition
the tour operator owing Hapagfly, home base
charter carrier at BRE, reorganised its network,
meaning a serious reduction of holiday
destinations ex BRE in 2006 (and from other
airports in .de although high loads) ? network
carrier reduced their presence at Bremen
(outsourcing of hub connections, or give up
routes) ? new answers have to be found to such
challenges development of options for
new or modified services

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Further Options for Routes
? Implementation of suggested routes by LCC
instead of charter or network carrier, with
or without a variation of suggested
airport The suggested flights HAJ - RJK
for charter, are actually run by Hapag-Lloyd
Express (with medium sized a/c, up to 3
times a week) ? New LC services to additional
airports in cities already connected to a
SEAPLANE airport ,like the new flights from
Bremen to London Luton by easyJet ?
Implementation or take over of existing routes by
low cost or regional carrier instead of
network or charter carrier, with or without
code-share / interlining tariffs, ... ? New
routes beyond given limit (50000 pax) with small
a/c ? ...

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Thank you for your attention.
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