Issues in Drought Monitoring:

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Issues in Drought Monitoring Canadian
Experiences
NASA Global Drought Monitoring Workshop Rick
Lawford Silver Spring April 11, 2011
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Canadian Drought Monitor Produced by AAF and EC
Draft map is produced from a subjective analysis
of many variables and indices which is then
circulated to a community of experts that provide
feedback how Well the analysis represents the
conditions on the ground.
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OBJECTIVES AND STRATEGY

• The objectives of Drought Research Initiative
  (DRI) are
• To better understand the physical characteristics
  of and processes influencing Canadian Prairie
  droughts, and
• To contribute to their better prediction and to
  improved societal preparation
• Strategy
• Focus on the recent severe drought that began in
  1999 and largely ended in 2005

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DRI THEMES

• Quantify the physical features,
• flows of water and energy into and out of the
  region, and
• storage and redistribution within the region
• Improve the understanding of processes and
  feedbacks governing the
• formation,
• evolution,
• cessation and
• structure of the drought
• Assess and contribute to reducing uncertainties
  in the prediction of drought
• Compare the similarities and differences of
  current drought to previous droughts and those in
  other regions
• Apply our progress to address critical issues of
  importance to society

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Atmospheric Components
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Phases
500 mb height anomalies
beginning phase
mature phase
mature phase - structure shift
cessation phase
(from Bonsal)
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The summers of the multiyear drought were
characterized by
Higher cloud bases
Lower CAPE
(from Henson et al., 2011)
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Annual PDSI
Bonsal/Wheaton
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Saskatoon Ranked 12-month SPI
The return period for a drought at a particular
location is dependent on the data source used.
(1 1100y, 2 150y, 3 133y, . 39 12.5y)
STATION CRU CANGRID ANUSPLIN
2001 1 39 2 1
1919 2 3 5 4
1924 3 4 3 3
1933 4 10 6 12
1929 5 2 1 5
2002 6 14 29 8
1998 7 8 25 18
1930 8 24 8 19
1952 9 11 19 17
1984 10 38 32 16

• 12-month SPI based on 2001 Agricultural year
  (September 2000- August 2001)

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Agricultural Components
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Both in-situ and satellite data were used to
characterize the spatial distribution of the
drought and its time evolution.
From Bonsal, Wheaton)
NDVI anomalies (based on 2000-08 mean) for
2000-2003 250m spatial resolution for 10-day
period of July 11-20 (Yang, Wang, Trishchenko)
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Statistically Significant Drought Index
Correlations by Category
(from Paul Bulock)

• 
  AC Barrie Superb
• Water Supply Indices 0
  3
• Water Demand Indices 19
  24
• Water Balance Indices 14
  18
• Water Use Indices
  7 7

Evapotranspiration provides a more accurate
estimate of wheat yield and quality than
precipitation and should be utilized for
assessment of agricultural drought.
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Maps by D.T. Price, M. Siltanen D. McKenney
from Canadian gridded monthly climate
(interpolations based on ANUSPLIN)
Hogg
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Annual Evapotranspiration 1999 to 2006 (adjusted
by 15 for energy-balance closure)
Aspen (393 80) Black Spruce (374 33) Jack
Pine (303 21)
Drought
Amiro Barr
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Hydrologic Components
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Duck Lake SK Observation wells water levels,
1964-2006 Source SK Watershed Authority,
www.swa.ca
(Van der Kamp)
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Passive Microwave Derived SWE
1998
2004
2001
1999
2002
2005
2000
2003
Derksen Brown
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Surface Hydrology
monthly low flow that occurred only 10 percent of
the time (Q10) was selected as the threshold
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Heavy human impact from irrigation, dams, cities,
tar sands, especially in Southern Alberta,
overlaying tend to obscure natural
hydrology. (Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques and David
Sauchyn)
South Saskatchewan at Medicine Hat
Difference between naturalized and actual flows
Difference between the two
Naturalized record courtesy of
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Socio-economic Components
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Socioeconomic Impacts of this drought in Canada
were largest in 2001-2002

• Total Canadian agricultural production loss was
  3.6B
• Gross Domestic Product fell 5.8B
• Employment losses gt 41,000
• Worst year was 2002
• Alberta and Saskatchewan were hit hardest

Wheaton et al. 2008
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Specific Impact Types by Province (2009-2010)
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Responses to drought in some years can increase
vulnerability to drought in later years.
According to Agriculture Canada, the Oldman river
region receives 400-450mm per year of
precipitation and has a net moisture deficit of
about 350 mm of water per annum.
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NADM Continental Drought Indicators

• The NADM drought conditions in US, MX, CN are
  determined independently based on different data,
  indices, analyses within each country. This
  process ensure regional inputs but introduces
  some non-uniformity in the product for analysis
  purposes.
• Drought indices covering entire region are needed
• Same indices, same analysis period, same
  methodologies to allow intercomparisons
• This consistency is needed for depiction across
  international boundaries and
• for capability between locations.

A global framework is needed to incorporate a
diversity of information and impacts.
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Summary
Indices for dealing with meteorological drought
are well developed for the warm seasons.
However, more work is needed to define the
best Indices for agricultural and hydrological
drought and their relationship to meteorological
drought. While many satellite products can
provide guidance on a global basis their use is
limited by the regional uniqueness of drought and
the socio-economic and governance frameworks for
dealing with it. A global framework is needed
that facilitates the production and
application of global products and allows for
regional expertise and circumstances to
be incorporated into the assessment of drought
and the management of its impacts.