Water Power Peer Review

1
Water Power Peer Review
Risk Analysis of the Potential Ecological Impacts
of MHK Arrays

• M. Grippo and I. Hlohowskyj

• MHK MA\Categorizing and Evaluating the Effects of
  Stressors

• Argonne National Lab
• mgrippo_at_anl.gov
• November 2011

2
Purpose, Objectives, Integration

• Ecological impacts are a major concern in the
  regulatory review of MHK projects and uncertainty
  about biological impacts will slow the pace of
  field deployments.
• Ecological risk analysis of MHK deployments
• Single deployment
• Array of devices
• Cumulative Impacts
• - The incremental increases in impacts from a
  single
• MHK device to large-scale commercial
  developments
• - Interaction of the MHK device with existing
• impacts from other anthropogenic stressors

3
Purpose, Objectives, Integration

• Objectives
• Aid developers in meeting NEPA requirements by
  addressing concerns of regulatory and management
  agencies
• Identify the highest risk impacts that will
  likely require mitigation
• Identify data gaps that need to be investigated
  to reduce uncertainty
• Integration
• Incorporate the results of field and laboratory
  studies conducted by partner labs into our risk
  analysis
• Suggest new endpoints for other labs to evaluate
  experimentally

4
Technical Approach

• Widely accepted EPA Risk Assessment Framework
  problem
• formulation, analysis, and risk characterization
• Problem formulation-Conceptual models (CM)
• Identifies MHK stressor-receptor relationships
• -Stakeholder communication, data gaps, prediction
• -Readily modified as new data become available
• Address Risk
• -MHK Operations Collision, noise, EMF habitat
  alteration
• -MHK Structure Habitat alteration reef effect
• -Population and Ecosystem level risks

5
Plan, Schedule, Budget

• Schedule
• Initiation date 9/1/2009
• Planned completion date 9/30/2012
• FY10 Milestones Report documenting the
  preliminary CMs and their application to benthic
  habitat alteration at proposed development sites
• FY11 Milestones Report documenting revised CMs
  and the summary of recent environmental research
  on MHK deployments
• FY12 Milestones Risk analysis and CMs
  incorporating the most recent studies of the
  ecological effects of MHK deployments
  (9/20/2012).
• Budget
• Approximately 61 of the total project funding
  has been spent to date

Budget History Budget History Budget History Budget History Budget History Budget History
FY2009 FY2009 FY2010 FY2010 FY2011 FY2011
DOE Cost-share DOE Cost-share DOE Cost-share
307K - 61K - 244K -
6
Accomplishments and Results

• FY10
• 1. Developed CMs of risks associated with a
  single device and MHK arrays based on existing
  literature
• 2. Developed framework for cumulative impact
  analysis
• 3. Applied CMs to benthic ecosystems at four
  locations considered for MHK deployment

7
Accomplishments and Results

• FY11
• 1. Submitted CMs for review to multiple resource
  agencies
• 2. Revised CM report incorporating agency
  comments
• 3. Currently in the Analysis Phase
• -Evaluating MHK monitoring studies currently
  available
• -Working with USACE on using individual based
  models quantify exposure probabilities

8
Accomplishments and Results
Habitat mediated impact routes from MHK
arrays Higher order interactions more difficult
to address CM shows POTENTIAL EFFECTS
9
Challenges to Date

• Lack of data to inform the risk analysis held up
  2011 work
• Few MHK deployments
• Inconclusive results from available monitoring
  studies
• Resources and potential impacts vary by
  technology and project location
• Challenging to evaluate cumulative impacts
• Cumulative impacts analysis requires
  understanding of MHK device impacts
• Working with developers to design monitoring
  plans that will effectively address high priority
  ecological risks

10
Next Steps

• FY12
• 1. Continue analysis phase of risk assessment
• -Incorporate new studies and data generated by
  partner labs
• 2. Characterization of Exposure
• -Contact with ecological receptors based on
  species life history
• -Empirical or mechanistic models of animal
  movement to quantitatively
• evaluate exposure risk
• 3. Revise CMs based on new data
• Milestones and Deliverables
• Risk analysis report and conceptual models (CM)
  integrating most current risk information on MHK
  devices
• Future Work
• Ongoing incorporation of new data into CM
• Development of targeted individual based models