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March 2006

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Hong Kong Baptist University 1998 Superannuation Fund Investment review HSBC Investments (Hong Kong) Limited Level 22, HSBC Main Building, 1 Queen s Road Central ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: March 2006


1
Hong Kong Baptist University1998 Superannuation
Fund
Investment review
HSBC Investments (Hong Kong) Limited Level 22,
HSBC Main Building, 1 Queens Road Central, Hong
Kong Telephone 852 2284 1111 Facsimile
852 2845 0226 Web site www.hsbcinvestments.com.
hk
March 2006
2
Agenda
  • Market performance
  • Investment choice
  • Fund performance
  • Peers review
  • Asset allocation
  • Investment strategy
  • Factors for consideration before switching

3
Market performance
4
Market statistics 3 months to December 2005 (in
HKD terms)
Bonds Citigroup World Government Bond
Indices, HSBC HKD Bond Index (Overall) Equities
USA (SP 500), UK (FTSE-100), Germany (DAX),
Japan (Nikkei 225), Hong Kong (HSI), Australia
(All Ordinaries), Taiwan (WPI), Korea
(KOSPI) Source Thomson Financial Datastream,
Bloomberg
5
Market statistics 1 year to December 2005 (in
HKD terms)
Bonds Citigroup World Government Bond
Indices, HSBC HKD Bond Index (Overall) Equities
USA (SP 500), UK (FTSE-100), Germany (DAX),
Japan (Nikkei 225), Hong Kong (HSI), Australia
(All Ordinaries), Taiwan (WPI), Korea
(KOSPI) Source Thomson Financial Datastream,
Bloomberg
6
Market statistics 3 months to January 2006 (in
HKD terms)
Bonds Citigroup World Government Bond
Indices, HSBC HKD Bond Index (Overall) Equities
USA (SP 500), UK (FTSE-100), Germany (DAX),
Japan (Nikkei 225), Hong Kong (HSI), Australia
(All Ordinaries), Taiwan (WPI), Korea
(KOSPI) Source Thomson Financial Datastream,
Bloomberg
7
Market statistics 1 year to January 2006 (in HKD
terms)
Bonds Citigroup World Government Bond
Indices, HSBC HKD Bond Index (Overall) Equities
USA (SP 500), UK (FTSE-100), Germany (DAX),
Japan (Nikkei 225), Hong Kong (HSI), Australia
(All Ordinaries), Taiwan (WPI), Korea
(KOSPI) Source Thomson Financial Datastream,
Bloomberg
8
Investment choice
9
Risk profile of various investment options
10
Fund performance
11
Investment performance HKBU 1998 High Growth
FundCumulative return to 31 Jan 2006
Source HSBC Investments Performance is net of
fees return in HKD. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance
12
Investment performance HKBU 1998 Growth
FundCumulative return to 31 Jan 2006
Source HSBC Investments Performance is net of
fees return in HKD. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance
13
Investment performance HKBU 1998 Balanced
FundCumulative return to 31 Jan 2006
Source HSBC Investments Performance is net of
fees return in HKD. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance
14
Investment performance HKBU 1998 Stable
FundCumulative return to 31 Jan 2006
Source HSBC Investments Performance is net of
fees return in HKD. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance
15
Investment performance HKBU 1998 Money Market
FundCumulative return to 31 Jan 2006
Source HSBC Investments Performance is net of
fees return in HKD. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance
16
Investment performance HKBU 1998 USD Money
Market FundCumulative return to 31 Jan 2006
Source HSBC Investments Performance is net of
fees return in HKD. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance
17
Peers review
18
Investment performance Year 2005
Source HSBC Investments, Watson Wyatt Managed
Fund Report, December 2005. Portfolio net of fees
performance in HKD term. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance
19
Asset allocation
20
Asset allocation as at 31 January 2006
  • Hong Kong Baptist University 1998 Superannuation
    Fund

High Growth Growth Balanced Stable Ben
chmark Fund Benchmark Fund Benchmark Fund Bench
mark Fund
Equities Hong Kong 30.0 27.9 24.0 22.6 17.0 15.9
10.0 10.2 Japan 12.0 13.9 9.0 12.7 6.5 9.6 4.0
6.5 Other Asia Pacific 12.0 16.7 9.0 12.4 6.5 12
.1 4.0 6.3 N. America 18.0 16.8 14.0 13.7 10.0
7.7 6.0 5.4 Europe inc. UK 18.0 18.9 14.0 14.8 1
0.0 10.3 6.0 6.3 Others 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0
.0 0.0 Sub-total 90.0 96.2 70.0 76.5 50.0 55.6 3
0.0 34.7 Bonds US 0.5 4.4 8.7 10.7 Non-USD
3.1 16.4 30.4 39.7 Sub-total
7.0 3.6 25.0 20.8 45.0 39.4 60.0 50.4 Cash
3.0 0.2 5.0 2.7 5.0 5.0 10.0 14.9
21
Investment strategy
22
Equity market outlook
  • Low returns during Fed tightening cycle
  • Strong returns expected if economy soft lands
  • Equity market valuation remains attractive
    against other asset classes
  • Favour Asia Emerging markets on growth
    valuation basis

Monetary pause favours equities
US Equity Market Return During FED Tightening
Cycle First half 3 Second Half -1 12
Months After FED Stops Tightening Soft Landing
15 Hard Landing -14
Emerging markets remain cheap
Europe
Hong Kong
23
Bond and currency outlook
Record US deficit fully financed by portfolio
flows
Bonds are becoming less expensive
Dollar supported by higher rates
()
()
()
Source Thomson Financial Datastream
Source Thomson Financial Datastream
Source Morgan Stanley Research. Trailing
four- quarter average as of 2Q05
  • Bond market
  • Valuations improved but real yields still low
  • Bonds offer cash-like returns
  • Range trading expected
  • Currency market
  • US dollar rally in 2005 driven by higher US rates
  • Interest rates differential narrowing coupled
    with record twin deficits, US dollar expected to
    resume longer term weakening

24
Summary
  • Global growth to moderate with gradual increase
    in inflation in 2006. US Fed to raise rates 50
    basis points in 1Q and pause thereafter. China
    remains the key driver.
  • Equity markets remain favourable as profit growth
    is sound, valuations supportive and rate cycle
    likely to pause.
  • Asian and emerging market equities remain
    attractively priced and domestic fundamentals in
    Asia strong.
  • Bond yields are expected to range trade.
  • US dollar expected to weaken in 2006.

25
Asset Class Outlook
  • Equities Fundamental conditions are positive for
    financial markets, particularly equities
  • Cash We moderately underweight cash
  • Bonds Bond returns to be around cash levels
  • Asia Expect domestic consumption and asset
    reflation as prominent themes
  • Japan Positive earnings revision compensate for
    market appreciation
  • Eurozone Low macro risk with low inflation and
    modest increases in short term interest rates
  • UK Mining sector strength and takeover activity
    continue to drive market performance
  • Hong Kong Could be due for short-term
    consolidation
  • US Investor sentiment is becoming stretched,
    consolidation could happen in the near term

Regional Outlook
Overweight
Underweight
Neutral
Data as of February 2006
26
Factors for consideration before switching
27
Dangers of market timing
  • Average annualized return (1980 - 2005)

HSI full period return
HSI full period less 10 best performing days
HSI full period less 20 best performing days
HSI full period less 30 best performing days
Data as at 31 December 2005 SourceThomson
Financial Datastream Investment involves risk.
Investment value can rise as well as fall. For
internal use only? The opinions expressed herein
should not be considered to be a recommendation
to any reader of this material to buy or sell
securities, commodities, currencies or other
investments referred to herein.
28
Reference table for suggested investment choices
Investment horizon (e.g. years to
retirement) Fund type 30 gt20-30 gt10-20 5-10
Very short years years years years (lt 5
years)
HKBU - High Growth Fund üüü üü ü û û HKBU -
Growth Fund üü üüü üü û û HKBU - Balanced Fund
ü üü üüü üü ü HKBU - Stable Fund
ü ü üü üüü üü HKBU - Money Market Funds û û
ü üü üüü


üüü Most appropriate üü Appropriate ü
Acceptable û Not appropriate
Note Please note that the above table is
designed for an average member. The final choice
for any member may be based on a variety of
factors.
29
Contact details
30
How to contact us ?
Members Choice Investment Hotline 2284 1281
Investment Service e-mail mbrs_choice_at_hsbc.com.h
k Web site http//www.hsbcinvestments.com.hk
31
Explanatory notes and disclaimers
  • The document is confidential and is supplied to
    you solely for your information. This document
    should not be reproduced or further distributed
    to any person or entities, whether in whole or in
    part, for any purpose.
  • Please also note that investment involves risk
    and past performance is not indicative of future
    performance.
  • The opinions expressed herein should not be
    considered to be a recommendation by HSBC
    Investments (Hong Kong) Limited to any reader of
    this material to buy or sell securities,
    commodities, currencies or other investments
    referred to herein. HSBC Investments (Hong Kong)
    Limited, its ultimate and intermediate holding
    companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, clients,
    directors and/or staff may, at any time, have a
    position in the markets referred to herein, and
    may buy or sell securities, currencies, or any
    other financial instruments in such markets.
  • HSBC Investments (Hong Kong) Limited has based
    this document on information obtained from
    sources it believes to be reliable but which it
    has not independently verified. HSBC Investments
    (Hong Kong) Limited and the HSBC Group make no
    guarantees, representations or warranties and
    accept no responsibility or liability as to its
    accuracy or completeness. Information in this
    report is subject to change without notice.

32
HSBC Investments (Hong Kong) Limited
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