Title: March 2006
1Hong Kong Baptist University1998 Superannuation
Fund
Investment review
HSBC Investments (Hong Kong) Limited Level 22,
HSBC Main Building, 1 Queens Road Central, Hong
Kong Telephone 852 2284 1111 Facsimile
852 2845 0226 Web site www.hsbcinvestments.com.
hk
March 2006
2Agenda
- Market performance
- Investment choice
- Fund performance
- Peers review
- Asset allocation
- Investment strategy
- Factors for consideration before switching
3Market performance
4Market statistics 3 months to December 2005 (in
HKD terms)
Bonds Citigroup World Government Bond
Indices, HSBC HKD Bond Index (Overall) Equities
USA (SP 500), UK (FTSE-100), Germany (DAX),
Japan (Nikkei 225), Hong Kong (HSI), Australia
(All Ordinaries), Taiwan (WPI), Korea
(KOSPI) Source Thomson Financial Datastream,
Bloomberg
5Market statistics 1 year to December 2005 (in
HKD terms)
Bonds Citigroup World Government Bond
Indices, HSBC HKD Bond Index (Overall) Equities
USA (SP 500), UK (FTSE-100), Germany (DAX),
Japan (Nikkei 225), Hong Kong (HSI), Australia
(All Ordinaries), Taiwan (WPI), Korea
(KOSPI) Source Thomson Financial Datastream,
Bloomberg
6Market statistics 3 months to January 2006 (in
HKD terms)
Bonds Citigroup World Government Bond
Indices, HSBC HKD Bond Index (Overall) Equities
USA (SP 500), UK (FTSE-100), Germany (DAX),
Japan (Nikkei 225), Hong Kong (HSI), Australia
(All Ordinaries), Taiwan (WPI), Korea
(KOSPI) Source Thomson Financial Datastream,
Bloomberg
7Market statistics 1 year to January 2006 (in HKD
terms)
Bonds Citigroup World Government Bond
Indices, HSBC HKD Bond Index (Overall) Equities
USA (SP 500), UK (FTSE-100), Germany (DAX),
Japan (Nikkei 225), Hong Kong (HSI), Australia
(All Ordinaries), Taiwan (WPI), Korea
(KOSPI) Source Thomson Financial Datastream,
Bloomberg
8Investment choice
9Risk profile of various investment options
10Fund performance
11Investment performance HKBU 1998 High Growth
FundCumulative return to 31 Jan 2006
Source HSBC Investments Performance is net of
fees return in HKD. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance
12Investment performance HKBU 1998 Growth
FundCumulative return to 31 Jan 2006
Source HSBC Investments Performance is net of
fees return in HKD. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance
13Investment performance HKBU 1998 Balanced
FundCumulative return to 31 Jan 2006
Source HSBC Investments Performance is net of
fees return in HKD. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance
14Investment performance HKBU 1998 Stable
FundCumulative return to 31 Jan 2006
Source HSBC Investments Performance is net of
fees return in HKD. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance
15Investment performance HKBU 1998 Money Market
FundCumulative return to 31 Jan 2006
Source HSBC Investments Performance is net of
fees return in HKD. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance
16Investment performance HKBU 1998 USD Money
Market FundCumulative return to 31 Jan 2006
Source HSBC Investments Performance is net of
fees return in HKD. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance
17Peers review
18Investment performance Year 2005
Source HSBC Investments, Watson Wyatt Managed
Fund Report, December 2005. Portfolio net of fees
performance in HKD term. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance
19Asset allocation
20Asset allocation as at 31 January 2006
- Hong Kong Baptist University 1998 Superannuation
Fund
High Growth Growth Balanced Stable Ben
chmark Fund Benchmark Fund Benchmark Fund Bench
mark Fund
Equities Hong Kong 30.0 27.9 24.0 22.6 17.0 15.9
10.0 10.2 Japan 12.0 13.9 9.0 12.7 6.5 9.6 4.0
6.5 Other Asia Pacific 12.0 16.7 9.0 12.4 6.5 12
.1 4.0 6.3 N. America 18.0 16.8 14.0 13.7 10.0
7.7 6.0 5.4 Europe inc. UK 18.0 18.9 14.0 14.8 1
0.0 10.3 6.0 6.3 Others 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0
.0 0.0 Sub-total 90.0 96.2 70.0 76.5 50.0 55.6 3
0.0 34.7 Bonds US 0.5 4.4 8.7 10.7 Non-USD
3.1 16.4 30.4 39.7 Sub-total
7.0 3.6 25.0 20.8 45.0 39.4 60.0 50.4 Cash
3.0 0.2 5.0 2.7 5.0 5.0 10.0 14.9
21Investment strategy
22Equity market outlook
- Low returns during Fed tightening cycle
- Strong returns expected if economy soft lands
- Equity market valuation remains attractive
against other asset classes - Favour Asia Emerging markets on growth
valuation basis
Monetary pause favours equities
US Equity Market Return During FED Tightening
Cycle First half 3 Second Half -1 12
Months After FED Stops Tightening Soft Landing
15 Hard Landing -14
Emerging markets remain cheap
Europe
Hong Kong
23Bond and currency outlook
Record US deficit fully financed by portfolio
flows
Bonds are becoming less expensive
Dollar supported by higher rates
()
()
()
Source Thomson Financial Datastream
Source Thomson Financial Datastream
Source Morgan Stanley Research. Trailing
four- quarter average as of 2Q05
- Bond market
- Valuations improved but real yields still low
- Bonds offer cash-like returns
- Range trading expected
- Currency market
- US dollar rally in 2005 driven by higher US rates
- Interest rates differential narrowing coupled
with record twin deficits, US dollar expected to
resume longer term weakening
24Summary
- Global growth to moderate with gradual increase
in inflation in 2006. US Fed to raise rates 50
basis points in 1Q and pause thereafter. China
remains the key driver. - Equity markets remain favourable as profit growth
is sound, valuations supportive and rate cycle
likely to pause. - Asian and emerging market equities remain
attractively priced and domestic fundamentals in
Asia strong. - Bond yields are expected to range trade.
- US dollar expected to weaken in 2006.
25Asset Class Outlook
- Equities Fundamental conditions are positive for
financial markets, particularly equities - Cash We moderately underweight cash
- Bonds Bond returns to be around cash levels
- Asia Expect domestic consumption and asset
reflation as prominent themes - Japan Positive earnings revision compensate for
market appreciation - Eurozone Low macro risk with low inflation and
modest increases in short term interest rates - UK Mining sector strength and takeover activity
continue to drive market performance - Hong Kong Could be due for short-term
consolidation - US Investor sentiment is becoming stretched,
consolidation could happen in the near term
Regional Outlook
Overweight
Underweight
Neutral
Data as of February 2006
26Factors for consideration before switching
27Dangers of market timing
- Average annualized return (1980 - 2005)
HSI full period return
HSI full period less 10 best performing days
HSI full period less 20 best performing days
HSI full period less 30 best performing days
Data as at 31 December 2005 SourceThomson
Financial Datastream Investment involves risk.
Investment value can rise as well as fall. For
internal use only? The opinions expressed herein
should not be considered to be a recommendation
to any reader of this material to buy or sell
securities, commodities, currencies or other
investments referred to herein.
28Reference table for suggested investment choices
Investment horizon (e.g. years to
retirement) Fund type 30 gt20-30 gt10-20 5-10
Very short years years years years (lt 5
years)
HKBU - High Growth Fund üüü üü ü û û HKBU -
Growth Fund üü üüü üü û û HKBU - Balanced Fund
ü üü üüü üü ü HKBU - Stable Fund
ü ü üü üüü üü HKBU - Money Market Funds û û
ü üü üüü
üüü Most appropriate üü Appropriate ü
Acceptable û Not appropriate
Note Please note that the above table is
designed for an average member. The final choice
for any member may be based on a variety of
factors.
29Contact details
30How to contact us ?
Members Choice Investment Hotline 2284 1281
Investment Service e-mail mbrs_choice_at_hsbc.com.h
k Web site http//www.hsbcinvestments.com.hk
31Explanatory notes and disclaimers
- The document is confidential and is supplied to
you solely for your information. This document
should not be reproduced or further distributed
to any person or entities, whether in whole or in
part, for any purpose. - Please also note that investment involves risk
and past performance is not indicative of future
performance. - The opinions expressed herein should not be
considered to be a recommendation by HSBC
Investments (Hong Kong) Limited to any reader of
this material to buy or sell securities,
commodities, currencies or other investments
referred to herein. HSBC Investments (Hong Kong)
Limited, its ultimate and intermediate holding
companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, clients,
directors and/or staff may, at any time, have a
position in the markets referred to herein, and
may buy or sell securities, currencies, or any
other financial instruments in such markets. - HSBC Investments (Hong Kong) Limited has based
this document on information obtained from
sources it believes to be reliable but which it
has not independently verified. HSBC Investments
(Hong Kong) Limited and the HSBC Group make no
guarantees, representations or warranties and
accept no responsibility or liability as to its
accuracy or completeness. Information in this
report is subject to change without notice.
32HSBC Investments (Hong Kong) Limited