MH-19: The Cold War

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MH-19 The Cold War The Nuclear Era
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The Cold War The Nuclear EraStrategic
Overview

• Post world war II divisions a world divided
• US Western Europe verses Soviets Eastern
  Euro Satellites
• Key differences major conflicting interestsgt
• Competing Geo-strategic Ideological interests
• Ideological, Political, economic, social
  conflict
• Played out through indirect military
  confrontations
• i.e. Crises regional conflicts
• Berlin blockade Taiwan Straits gt Quemoy
  Matsu
• Korean War Bay of Pigs Cuban Missile Crisis
• Vietnam War Middle East Wars
• Afghanistan invasion CIA/SOF covert support
• KAL shoot down - too name a few

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Underlying Threat

• All above crises conflicts eclipsed by what
  potential threat?
• Atomic then later nuclear weapon escalation!
• And...possibly the destruction of western
  civilization
• Nukes shaped and limited nature of all CW
  conflict
• Affected almost all major international security
  issues
• After Aug 49 gt Soviets also had the Atomic bomb
  
• Significance?
• The US lost its ?______________ monopoly

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Post-Cuban Missile Crisis

• After Cuban Missile Crisis
• USSR sped up Nuke Development missile programs
• (never again back down from weakness to US)
• By 1969 gt Soviets had reached parity
• Significance?
• (US strategic ?____________ required in view of
  parity)
• US forced to adjust its National Security
  strategy
• Policy strategy shaped by these major
  considerations
• Reality gt both superpowers could destroy each
  other
• Both sides then avoided potential escalation of
  crisis/conflict
• Try to stay below Nuclear threshold at all costs!

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Focus of Cold War Competition

• Result gt both avoided direct confrontation if
  possible
• Conflict was consistently indirect
• Almost always conducted thru proxies (Koreans,
  NVA, etc.)
• But with direct or indirect or military
  support to the proxy
• (Because direct engagement risked what?)
• Potential escalation between two sides to
  ?_________ __________
• Key focus of Cold Wars competition was where?
• Central ?______________
• Overshadowed all other potential global conflict
• Highest priority Germany and Berlins status
  especially
• Next as close 2nd the Division of Europe

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Military Dimension of Competition

• Primary superpower military instruments for
  pursuit of their political military security
  interests?
• ?_______ ______ __________ ___________

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Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD)

• Fortunately MAD security policy strategy
  worked?
• How many times has Nuclear weapons been used?
• End of ?______________ (directly), and
• ?_______ _______ Crisis (indirectly)
• So far as it has turned out gt
• What is the real value of so many Nuke weapons?
• ?______________ of USSR
• How has that recently changed?
• Post 9/11 How can you deter ?_______ _______?

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Atomic Arms Race

• Birth of the A-Bomb
• Role of Hitler World War II
• Einsteins role gt convincing FDR to act
• Manhattan Project
• MG Graves Dr Oppenheimer
• First detonation at Alamogordo NM- 16 Jul 1945
• Potential weapon to end WWII
• Trumans role
• Tough decision?
• Rationale justification for dropping A-bomb?
• 700K potential causalities expected if US invades
  ?______________
• Probably many more ?______________ civilians as
  well

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Adapting to the A-Bomb

• As Cold War intensifies gt impact
• Forces reassessment of National Security Strategy
• Key question how to use A-Bomb against rising
  threat?
• DODs 1st attempt to integrate bomb Broiler
  (cities)
• Other strategies followed based on Airpower
  massive retaliation
• Soviets take hard line in East Europe
  elsewhere
• Force adoption of communist governments
  throughout
• Attempt to spread influence globally even in
  West
• Soviet refuse to leave oil rich Iran following
  end of WWII
• Support Greek communists take-over attempt
• US response Containment Doctrine, Policy
  Strategy

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Policies, Strategies, Doctrines shaping US Cold
War response

• Cold War became main arena for competition
  conflict
• Demonstrated through Trumans adoption of
• Containment policy - thesis rationale
• Kennans Long Telegram firm persistence
  
  to contain Soviet expansion
• Truman Doctrine
• states official US position to contain communism
• Marshall Plan
• Economic means to achieve Containments end
• NATO
• Military instrument for Containment in Europe
• NSC-68
• Revised Military Strategy to achieve Containment
• Korean War (US surprised unprepared)
• Provided major reason push to rebuild
  conventional forces

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Soviets Response

• Molotov Plan (reaction to Marshall Plan)
• Tied Eastern Europe to Moscows economy
• Berlin Blockade
• Failed Soviet response to growing western
  influence of Western Germany (Bizonia)
• US responded with the Berlin Airlift- sometimes
  at great costs
• Warsaw Pact
• Military alliance of East Europe (NATO
  counterpart)

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Increasing Reliance on the Bomb

• Policies Strategies of Ike Administration
• Declared rejection of Trumans immoral
  containment policy
• Now pursued a Roll Back of Soviet gains in
  Eastern Europe
• Required a new more effective National Security
  Strategy
• Massive Retaliation
• Ikes new National Security Strategy
• Dulles asserts nuclear retaliation is viable
  option for response to Communist aggression
• At any level strategic or tactical
• New term enters strategic lexicon
• Brinkmanship (implication?)
• Tensions rises as both sides assert
  willingness go to the brink of nuclear war
• Nukes now employable weapon at lower tactical
  level

SADM
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New Look

• First Ike says we need a New Look at US
  National Security Strategy (translation?)
• Bring current military force structure into
  compliance with new strategy
• New military strategy drives force structure
• Nuclear weapons now key to Ikes new strategy
• Conventional forces relegated to trip wire
  status
• Therefore conventional forces no longer
  required
• Reality Strategy justifies major cuts in defense
  budget
• Which service benefits most from new strategy?
• ?______ ________ reaction of other armed services

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Advances in Technology

• Numerous advances in weapons technology was led
  by USAF
• Strategic manned bomber (USAF B-52)
• Atomic gt fusion bombs gt thermo-nuclear weapons
  were refined
• Weapons with smaller to much greater nuclear
  yields also developed
• Missiles were improved with advanced guidance
  greater accuracy range
• Other Services also made advances
• CVNs, A-5Widow Maker, SSN /SLBM
• Army develops Tactical Nukesgt Honest John
  Davy Crockett rockets, 280 mm gun smaller 155
  mm rounds
• NSA Satellite recon/strategic Intel (photo
  ELINT)
• CIA sponsored U-2 SR-71 spy aircraft

A-5
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US-Soviet Arms Race

• Soviets also made significant advances in Nuke
  weapons technology
• Gained their own A-Bomb in 1949
• Thermo-Nuclear weapon in 1953
• Soviet arsenal raised to 300-400 nuclear devices
  by 1955
• Soviets built strategic aircraft delivery
• Badger, Bear, in 1960s Blinder
• Soviets were able to mislead US Intelligence
  community USAF on Soviet Bomber s at Moscow
  air show how?
• US over reacted and reinforced false impression
  of Bomber gap myth
• SLBM Subs were also eventually built
• (Golf, Hotel surface launch missiles)
• Yankee submerged launch by 1968
• Reality Soviets concentrated on building
  missile delivery systems
• No bomber gap- except in favor of US

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Arms Race Continues

• As technology advanced gt weapons became more
  lethal
• Bigger better
• (More bang for the buck)
• Both sides incorporated new weapons into their
  strategy
• In turn adjusted strategy in reaction to foes
  new weapons
• Also in reaction to other strategic technical
  changes

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The Defense Theorists

• During this period strategic thinkers developed
  theories
• Most prominent among the civilian intellectuals
• Bernard Brodie wrote The Absolute Weapon
• Laid down basis for Nuclear Deterrence strategy
• Thus far the chief purpose of our military
  establishment has been to win wars. From now on
  its chief purpose must be to avert them. It can
  have almost no other useful purpose."
• Defense Theorists Thesis
• Cost of retaliation too high for offensive strike
• True value of Nukes rest with averting war
• Dr Oppenheimers analogy
• US USSR are like two scorpions in a bottle
• New lexicon of strategic nuclear terminology
• Targeting counter-value versus counterforce
• Other civilian military strategists w/significant
  impact
• Albert Wohlstetter Herman Kahn (who disagreed
  with Brodie)
• Both help shape US National Security Strategy for
  Cold War

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Early Nuclear Threats

• Ike hinted he might use A-Bomb to end Korean War
• Against whom?
• North Koreans China
• Ike backed warning w/deployment
  of A-bombs to Okinawa
• Appeared to work gt settlement talks
  concluded soon after
• French requested US support to
• avoid disaster at Dien Bien Phu
• But Ike refused to send US troops or
• Deployment of Tactical Nukes
• Other crises where Nuclear
  weapons were considered
• Suez Canal Crisis of 1956
• (Khrushchev threatens Brits French to back
  off)
• Alluded to mushroom clouds over London Paris
• Also during 1st Taiwan Strait Crisis
  (Quemoy-Matsu)
• Ike made casual but significant remark to
  reporters
• Atomic bomb same as a bullet.

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Quemoy Matsu Crisis

• Sept 1954 Chinese begin shelling Islands why?
• Nationalist Chinese staging on Islands
  covert US SOF (UDT) activities
• Ike Administration reluctant to escalate crisis
  to war
• Ike sends Dulles to Taiwan to defuse
  crisis
• Compromises made w/Nationalists leadership
• Mutual Defense Treaty between US Nationalist
  China
• Implied condition acceptance of status quo-
  significance?
• De facto 2 China policy now in effect
• Red China viewed Mutual Defense Treaty as threat
  to its sovereignty

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1st Taiwan Strait Crisis

• Ike prepared to use Nuclear weapons to end
  standoff if necessary
• Backs Dulles blatant hint to use Nukes with
  reply an Atom bomb is the same as a bullet
• Tactical low yield weapons prepared for use
• Chinese conclude US not bluffing back down
• May 1955 cease fire ended 1st Taiwan Strait
  crisis
• Potential role of US 7th Fleet blocking any
  landing attempt by Chinese to
• Ike well aware of Chinese Navys limitations
• Chinese Navy no match for US 7th Fleet patrolling
  Straits
• Therefore Chinese invasion of Formosa unlikely

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Strategic Parity Flexible Response

• In 1960 JFK Democrats came to power
• JFK criticized Ikes Security Strategy during his
  campaign
• Conducts reassessment of Ikes Massive
  Retaliation strategy
• Focus Impact on European states supposedly
  defended by US Nukes
• US credibility to use Nuclear Weapons a major
  concern
• Also Risk of escalation over non vital interests
  (in 3rd world)
• Need more realistic options for all levels of
  conflict
• (Vice doing nothing or all out Nuclear War)
• Result US National Security Strategy revised
  (again)
• Other more flexible lesser options to include
• Diplomacy Presence
• Covert action (CIA special mission units)
• Counter-insurgency (SOF)
• Conventional Forces (buildup)

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Force structure Changes

• Force structure modifications needed to conduct a
  more Flexible Response to Soviet aggression
• Conventional forces had to be significantly
  increased
• USN doubled number of ships
• USA expanded from 11 to 16 infantry divisions
• USAF
• TACAIR increased to 23 squadrons
• Airlift expanded by 75
• Army Special Forces Navy SEALs established
• Defense budget increased by 50B to pay for it
• Also expanded Nuclear arsenal
• More target flexibility for nuclear attacks

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Nuclear Strategy MAD

• SECDEF McNamaras expanded US Nuclear Strategy
• Counterforce vs. counter-value strategy?
• Example ?________________ vs. ?______________
• Aim avoid all out nuclear war with
  enhanced US second strike capability
• US therefore to strike military targets as 1st
  priority
• Also expanded US Nuclear delivery options
• Integrated all 3 mediums of air, land, sea
• SIOP incorporated to avoid target duplication
• Triad system developed for assured retaliation
• McNamara revised the Strategy for assured 2nd
  strike
• Assured destruction evolved togt mutual assured
  destruction
• (After Soviet Union achieve parity with US)

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Nuclear Arms Technology

• Nuclear Arms Technology
  advances would continue
• Innovations strategic adjustments made through
  1960s-90s
• James Schlesinger graduated response
  (Tac-Nukes)
• Also incorporated by Pres. Carter in PD-59
  (countervailing)
• Graduated escalation from lowest level of
  required response
• Major US assumption by Carter Administration
• Soviets will play same game with US
• (They declared they would not.)
• Pres. Reagan mistrusted Soviets especially during
  1st term
• Aggressively accelerated US arms development
• Trident SS Missile, B-1 Bomber, Pershing II,
  SDI
• Result Soviets conclude US embarked on arms race

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US Intervention in Western Hemisphere

• One area of particular interest to US during Cold
  War was

LATAM
Particularly where?
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Cuba Bay of Pigs - April 17, 1961

• JFK approved CIA plan to invade Cuba
• 1400 Cuban exiles with US support wade ashore at
  Bay of Pigs
• Landing site was a last minute choice- How did it
  go?
• ?_________ ?_____ planning, OPSEC, Intel
  execution
• Strategic Tactical surprise blown- Castro ready
  waiting
• No avenue for retreat if/when op goes bad (it
  did- very badly)
• JFK withdraws US CAS at 11th hour disaster
• 1189 out of 1400 invaders captured
• Impact on JFKs Presidency?
• JFK was ?_________ ?_________
• Distrusts CIA JCS (who signed off on plan)
• CIA Director Allen Dulles is fired
• JFK vows it will be different next time

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Cuban Missile Crisis October 1962

• US USSR came closest to direct confrontation
  when
• Khrushchev attempted to emplace missiles in Cuba
• Soviets deployed 36 MRBM 24 IRBM into Cuba
• US spy plane (U-2) detects CIA confirms/informs
  Whitehouse
• Why did Khrushchev risk this situation?
• What were Khrushchevs motives?
• Offset US ?_________ superiority
• Redress growing ?_________ to Russian homeland
• US growing Nuclear arms imbalance with Sovietsgt
  sparks their concern
• McNamaras counter-force strategy
• Required missile buildupgt which Soviets view in
  terms of arms race

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Additional Motives JFKs Response

• Khrushchevs additional motives for Cuban
  Missiles included
• Deter US from another invasion of Cuba
• Perhaps force a breakthrough on Berlin stalemate
• Domestic benefits distract attention from bad
  harvest
• Solidify Soviet global Communist
  leadership
  (over China)
• Rising ideological competitor to Soviets
• JFKs reaction?
• US Geo-strategic interests (missiles ?___ ______
  miles away)
• Also personal test of JFKs leadership
• JFK convenes Executive Committee
• Makes national televised address
• JFK demands immediate removal
• Issues stern warning to Soviets
• Any nuclear attack from Cuba
• Places US military on full alert (SEAL Team-2
  locked loaded)
• Orders contingency plans finally orders blockade

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Khrushchevs response

• Note The threat of Nuclear exchange never closer
• Even closer than originally thought why?
• ?_________ release to local commander authorized
  by Soviets
• Start of WWIII left to a General under attack!
• Soviets reluctantly back down from direct
  confrontation with US
• Long term impact of Soviet response to crisis on
  USSR?
• Khrushchev ousted Oct64 by ?_________
• Soviets accelerate Nuclear arms build-up
• Aim parity by end of decade
• (Attained by late 1969/early 1970)
• What might have happened if Khrushchev had not
  backed down?

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Nuclear Arms Proliferation Arms Control

• Cuban Missile Crisis was a wake-up call for both
  sides
• Brink of mutual destruction sobered each into
  negotiations
• JFK made a conciliatory speech shortly after
• We all inhabit this small planet together
• Khrushchev also responded positively
• Both sides searched for ways to avoid future
  crisis
• Another major concern was spread of Nuclear
  technology
• Britain, France, then China gained Nuclear
  capability
• Not long after Israel, then India Pakistan (NK
  Iran next?)
• Concerns motivated search to limit further
  proliferation
• Arms Control initiatives talks became more
  attractive
• Test Ban Treaty63 Non-proliferation Treaty67
• Later SALT I II gt START (with others following)

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Assessment

• Nuclear Weapons radically affected US during Cold
  War
• Shaped US National Security Strategy from then on
  until 1990s
• Also determined in large part military Force
  Structure
• Following WWII US owned small monopoly of
  A-Bombs
• Also enjoyed largest (50) industrial
  growth in world
• But it greatly feared Soviet expansion
  communism
• As Soviets continued to expand power influence
• Strident rhetoric Spread of communism was major
  US concern
• Result Kennans Long Telegram gt Truman Doctrine
• Basis of containment gt National Security
  strategy for Cold War
• As Soviets gained Nuclear Weapons gt adjustments
  made
• US supplements strategy with deterrence as well

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Assessment- 2

• Throughout Cold War Containment Deterrence gt
• basis of US National Security policy strategy
• Truman Containment
• Ike massive retaliation- also New Look Roll
  Back
• JFK Flexible Response
• Following Cuban Missile Crisis
• USSR accelerated its nuclear program gt parity
  with US (1970)
• US adopted assured destruction gt MAD (Soviet
  Parity w/US)
• By 1970s gt nuclear technology rapidly advanced
• Began to threaten delicate balance of terror
• Result arm limitations sought to control
  escalation
• Impact of Reagans SDI (further destabilizing gt
  arms race)
• Nuclear weapons impact on global war?
• Incentive to avoid crisis, escalation direct
  confrontation
• How might that have changed since 9/11/2001?
• Deterrence against who or what?

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Back-up Slides
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George Kennan Origins of Containment

• Significance impact of Kennans Long Telegram
• Provides rationale for more confrontational US
  approach
• Assumes Soviet hostility is inevitable
  immutable toward West
• Soviets must justify their Totalitarian system to
  their people how?
• Soviet leaders point to outside threat posed by
  the West as the primary reason for repressive
  measures
• Kennan urged US to abandon replace
  accommodation policy
• Asserted that West must contain Soviet global
  expansionism
• Stressed steady deliberate manner
• An edited version was published in Foreign Affairs

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Marshall Plan

• Marshall Plan is seen as economic dimension to
  Truman Doctrine Containment Policy Strategy
• It had significant impact on international
  affairs
• Plans major goal objectives
• Rebuild Europe
• 106 Billion expended over 4 years (in Fiscal
  year 2006 dollars)
• ( amount in red bars on map)
• Eliminate root conditions contributing to growth
  of Communism
• What was the Soviets reaction?

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Military Dimension of Competition

• Primary superpower military instruments for
  pursuit of their political military security
  interests?
• NATO vs. Warsaw Pact gt

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(No Transcript)
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Key Measures To Block Soviet Expansion

• Key measures taken to block Soviet expansion to
  West
• Br/US establish Bizonia-
• fusing their two zones together
• Start economic reforms within Bizonia
• (Common currency)
• Prepare for Marshall Plan participation
• Draft West German constitution
• (w/o Soviet input)
• How do Soviets react?

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Soviet Reaction Berlin Blockade

• Soviets close all road traffic into Berlin
• USSR concern of potential new German threat
• US economic links influence on Germany
• Action block ground access supplies to Berlin
• Trumans reaction Berlin Airlift
• Successful re-supply operation- establishes air
  bridge to Berlin- sometimes at great cost
• Truman also deploys 60 Strategic bombers to
  Britain
• Implied threat to Soviets?
• Major propaganda benefit for West why?
• Soviet response to negative publicity?
• Impact on western attitudes toward USSR?
• Result Reunification becomes non-starter for 4
  decades
• Germany remains divided into 2 states for
  duration of Cold War

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Arms Race

• Soviets also made significant advances in weapons
  technology
• Gained own A-Bomb in 1949 Thermo-Nuke weapon in
  1953
• Strategic aircraft delivery
• Badger, Bear, Backfire
• SLBM Subs (Golf, Hotel surface launch missiles)
• Yankee SSBN by 1968
• Missile delivery systems
• (Bigger the better)
• Strategic Rocket Forces
• (Main service of Soviets)

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Cuban Missile Crisis

• Background
• Khrushchev attempts to emplace missiles in Cuba
• Deploys 36 MRBM 24 IRBM in Cuba
• US intelligence detects confirms (U-2)gt
  informs Whitehouse
• Khrushchevs motives
• Offset US Nuclear superiority
• Redress growing threat to Russian homeland
• US growing Nuclear arms imbalance with Sovietsgt
  sparks their concern
• McNamaras counter-force strategy
• Required missile buildupgt which Soviets view in
  terms of arms race

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Additional Motives JFKs Response

• Additional motives for Cuban Missiles included
• Deter US from another invasion of Cuba
• Perhaps force a breakthrough on Berlin stalemate
• Domestic benefits distract attention from bad
  harvest
• Solidify Soviet global Communist leadership (over
  China)
• Rising ideological competitor to Soviets
• JFKs reaction? No Way! Why?
• US Geo-strategic interests
• Also personal test of JFKs leadership
• Convenes Executive Committee
• Makes national address
• JFK demands immediate removal
• Issues stern warning to Soviets
• Places US military on full alert, orders
  contingency plans finally blockade

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Khrushchevs response

• Note threat of Nuclear exchange never closer
• Even closer than originally thought (recent info)
• Tactical release to local commander authorized by
  Soviets
• Soviets reluctantly back down from direct
  confrontation with US
• Long term impact of Soviet response to crisis
• Khrushchev ousted Oct64 by Brezhnev
• Soviets accelerate Nuclear arms build-up
• Aim parity by end of decade
• (attained by early 1970)