The Wrong Crystal Ball

1
The Wrong Crystal Ball

• Dr. Barry Blesser
• Blesser Associates

2
Modes of Discussion

• Who Owns the Question?
• Pattern Recognition
• Language Vocabulary
• Paradigms
• Theories
• Speculations
• View from 1,000 ft vs 30,000 ft.

3
Technology Business
4
Technology Paradigm Shifts

• WW II Technology Impacts Society
• You Bet Your Company Development
• Size is Everything
• Redefinition of Barriers to Entry
• Shortened Lifetimes of Products
• No Low Hanging Fruits
• Technology as Commodity
• Quality as Discardable

5
Classical Product Evolution

• Concept Invention
• Laboratory Prototype
• Professional Introduction
• Economic Manufacture
• Semi-Professional
• Consumer Model

6
Paradigm Inversion

• Sony-Philips on CD development
• 600M for First Model
• Goal of High Volume Immediately
• 12 Incremental Cost
• Total System Development
• Partial Borrowing

7
Acceleration of Life Cycles
8
Misleading Growth
9
Stages in Product Life Cycle
Innovation and product productivity vary during
a threads life-stages Infancy Birth, rapid
learning, uncertain future Adolescent Others
follow trend, energetic innovation Adulthood Matur
e product ranges, less innovation Retirement Marke
t for technology declines Death Only antiquities
remain
10
Innovation (Practitioner View)

• Initially high rate of invention with few
  resources
• Resource grow, but rate of invention declines
• Resources decline with their related marketplace

11
Innovation (Patent View)

• Initially few patents, but with very wide scope
• Quantity of patents grows, but scope narrows
• Patents decline with their related marketplace

12
Spawning of Child Threads
Strong threads lead to many other threads
Weak threads lead to only a few narrow branches
13
Thread Life Times
Some threads have longer lifetimes than others
14
Thread Transitions

• New threads start prior to peak technical and
  market performance of previous threads
• Thread transitions are emotional challenges

Market attractiveness Technology performance
Pride
Success
Acceptance
Shock
Courage
Hope
Action
Denial
Mourning
Rage
Internal/Self Steering
External Steering
time
15
HiTech Commoditization

• Low Barrier to Entry
• Low Cost
• Similar Features-Function
• Many alternatives
• Low Margins
• Automated Manufacture
• Low Brand Loyalty

16
Cultural Business
17
Head Space Limits

• Total Buttons in Household
• Total Hidden Menus in Products
• Learning Time to Master
• Interest in Mastery Effort
• Personal Payback in Investment
• Competing Uses of Mental Effort

18
Life Style Impact

• Direct Substitution of Equivalent
• Changes Family Dynamics
• Competes with Other Activities
• Economic Competition
• Time Competition
• Viewed as Consumable

19
Business Model

• Cost of Development
• Product Life
• Sunk Cost for First Sale
• Engineering Risk
• Barriers to Entry
• Support Cost

20
Redefined Quality Metrics

• Meets Customers Expectation?
• Solves a Real Problem or Service
• Defects Irrelevant or Accepted
• Fits Reliability Model
• Market Sets Expectations
• Not a Technical Concept
• User Interface Burdens

21
Added Value Check List

• Novel Functionality
• Brand Name Recognition
• Distribution Dominance
• User Friendly Learning Use
• Specialized Technology
• Perceived High Value

22
Example Home Computer

• High Sales Volume
• High Market Penetration
• Low Margins
• Packaging Business Model
• No Barriers to Entry
• Too Complex to Customize
• Pure Commodity

23
Example Home Theater

• Dominates Listening Room
• Connection Impact
• Flawed Source Material
• High Cost
• No Technical Barriers
• Branded, Licensed, or Patented

24
Example Home Network

• Installation Complexity
• Implies High Economic Cost
• On-site Technical Manager
• Large Scale
• Mass Acceptance vs Niche Solution
• DSL by Analogy

25
Analysis Methods

• Personal Experience Bias
• Decade Bias - Cultural Evolution
• Failure of Introspection
• Cultural Patterns Dominate
• Use Real Social-Scientists
• Technology is a Subset of Culture

26
Summary of Issues

• The Customer is Part of the Culture
• Cultural Drift and Patterns
• Anthropologic Evaluation of Society
• Human Limits to Introspection
• Technology Waves not Linear
• We Do Not Choose Our Decade

27
The Right Crystal Ball

• An Interdisciplinary Approach