The Muslim World After 9/11

1
The Muslim World After 9/11 the Iraq War

• February 2005

2
Understanding Emerging ThreatsThe Muslim World
After 9/11 the Iraq War

• This study has several objectives
• Develop a typology of tendencies in Muslim world
• Identify key cleavages and fault lines
• Identify the factors that produce extremism and
  violence
• Analyze the effects of 9/11, the GWOT and Iraq
• Develop recommendations for a U.S. strategy
• The goals of the strategy are
• Help our friends and potential allies
• Neutralize our adversaries
• Influence those in the middle

3
Muslim Tendencies Marker Issues

• Seven Tendencies Seven marker issues
• Radical Fundamentalists Ideology
• Scriptural Fundamentalists Political/legal
  views
• Traditionalists Views of government
• Modernists (liberal) Human rights
• Modernists (Islamist) Social agenda
• Liberal Secularists Propensity for violence
• Authoritarian Secularists Links to terrorism

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Typology of Muslim Tendencies
Authoritarian Secularists
Liberal Secularists
Modernists
Traditionalists
Scriptural Fundamentalists
Radical or neo- Fundamentalists
Leader cult and socialist and/or pan-Arab
ideologies
Liberal democratic or social democratic values
Islam viewed as consistent with modern world
Fuse Islamic beliefs with local traditions
Literal interpretation of Islamic scriptures
Emphasis on obligation of jihad
Ideology
Rely on authoritarian structures
Support secular law and institutions
Politically moderate
Politically moderate
Politically conservative
Revolutionary and anti-status quo
Political-Legal
Political legitimacy derives from state ideology
Political legitimacy derives from the will of the
people through free elections.
Political legitimacy derives from the will of the
people through free elections.
Political legitimacy derives from the will of the
people
Political legitimacy derives from God
Political legitimacy derives from God
Government
Primacy of party and state and collective
interests
Primacy of individual political and human rights
Islam contains the basic concepts of human rights
and individual freedoms
Islam guarantees human rights and liberties
Same
Reject Western concept of human rights and
individual liberties
Human Rights
Inconsistent
Progressive in education and womens rights
Generally progressive
Conservative but many value non-religious
subjects in education
Reactionary
Generally reactionary
Social Agenda
Terrorism an instrument of state policy
Usually none
Usually none
Usually none
Generally indirect
Direct
Links to Terrorism
High
Low
Low
Low
Situation-continent
High
Propensity for Violence
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Muslim Tendencies Radical Fundamentalists
Hib ut-Tahrir (international) MMI - Majlis
Mujahidin Indonesia
6
Add Scriptural Fundamentalists
7
Add Traditionalists and Modernists
8
Add Secularists
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The Muslim World Is Far From Homogenous
T u r k i c
P e r s i an
A r a b
S o u t h A s i a n
B e r b e r A f r i c a n
M a l a y
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Briefing Outline

• The Islamic Landscape
• Fault lines in the Muslim World
• Sources of Islamic Radicalism
• Post-9/11 and Post-Iraq Trends
• Conclusions

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Sources of Islamic Radicalism

• Processes

Catalytic Events
Conditions
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Sources of Islamic Radicalism

• Conditions
• Failed political and economic models
• Structural anti-Westernism
• Unresolved issues of state and religious
  authority
• Processes
• The Islamic resurgence
• Riyaldiplomatik external funding of religious
  fundamentalism and extremism
• Convergence of Islamism and tribalism
• Growth of radical Islamic networks
• Emergence of the mass media
• The Palestinian-Israeli and Kashmir conflicts
• Catalytic Events
• The Six-Day War (in Arab world)
• The Iranian Revolution
• The Afghan War
• The (First) Gulf War
• September 11 and the Global War on Terrorism
• The Iraq War and its aftermath

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Briefing Outline

• The Islamic Landscape
• Fault lines in the Muslim World
• Sources of Islamic Radicalism
• Post-9/11 and post-Iraq Trends
• Conclusions

14
The War in Iraq a Catalytic Eventin the Middle
East

• On the order of the 1967 Six-Day War or higher
• Western-led coalition assumed responsibility for
  restructuring political system of Muslim country
• Effects of the war can be analyzed at three
  levels
• Effects on Iraq
• Effects on Middle East
• Effects on broader Muslim World

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A Strategy for the Muslim WorldNeeds to Include

• A geopolitical vision of the Muslim world
• What kind of a Muslim world do we want to see
  emerge from the current turmoil?
• And what are the engagement, military posture,
  and access implications of this vision?
• Practical steps to
• (1) support friends and potential allies
• (2) neutralize enemies
• (3) appeal to mainstream Muslims The War of
  Ideas

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The Centerpiece of the Practical Side of the
Strategy is to Empower Moderates

• Two components of this approach
• Help to create moderate Muslim networks
• Support Civil Islamorganizations
• Currently radicals have the advantage
• They are a minority, but have developed extensive
  international networks
• Liberal and moderate Muslims have no similar
  networks
• Creation of an international moderate Muslim
  network would provide a platform to amplify their
  message and protection
• However, the initial impulse may require an
  external catalyst

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And Disrupt Radicals

• The U.S. and its allies also need to disrupt
  radical networks and deny resources to extremists
• The key analytical/intelligence problem is how
  can hostile networks be identified?
• Within Western countries, policymakers need to be
  attentive to radical infiltration of prisons and
  the military
• Resource denial involves difficult practical
  problems, but could be partially addressed
  through network disruption

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Influence the Muslim Mainstream

• Obvious attempts by non-Muslims to influence
  Muslims would likely backfire.
• U.S. needs to rely on Muslim scholars to
  delegitimize radical ideology
• Over the long term, important to promote madrassa
  and mosque reform
• What the U.S. and its allies can do
• Assist moderate madrassas to provide broad modern
  education marketable skills
• Assist governments in developing/strengthening
  capabilities to monitor mosques and madrassas

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Seek to Engage Islamists in Normal Politics

• Goal is to influence radicals into moderation
• Always a danger that an Islamist party, once in
  power, may move against democratic freedoms
• However, inclusion of such groups within
  democratic institutions may over time lessen
  threat
• An unequivocal commitment to non-violence and
  democratic processes should be prerequisite
• Turkeys AKP an ambiguous model

20
Engage Muslim Diasporas

• Engagement of Muslim diasporas could help U.S.
  advance its interests in Muslim world
• One possibility is working with Muslim NGOs in
  responding to humanitarian crises
• However, efforts to engage diasporas need to be
  undertaken cautiously
• Need to be able to distinguish between benign
  and malign diasporan manifestations

21
Expand Economic Opportunities

• Will not by itself prevent extremists from
  striking at perceived enemies of Islam
• However, might help to indirectly undercut the
  appeal of radicals
• Priority on improving the economic/job prospects
  of the young
• How international assistance is channeled is
  critical
• Funding should not be politically neutral
• Should emphasize programs run by secular or
  moderate Muslim organizations

22
Build Appropriate Military Capabilities and
Posture

• Comprehensive review of U.S. military
  capabilities and posture in Muslim world needed
• New challenges require the U.S. to develop
  different kinds of military capabilities
• counter-insurgency stabilization capabilities
• cultural intelligence
• In Iraq, the U.S. faces a dilemma
• cannot leave without defeating insurgency or
  leaving power vacuum behind
• but need to reduce visibility as occupying
  power

23
Geopolitical Implications of Pro-Democracy
Strategy

• A pro-democracy strategy implies
• Re-examination of the current U.S. military
  relationship with authoritarian but friendly
  Muslim states
• Hard-headed look at benefits/costs of such
  relationships
• What are the alternatives to authoritarian
  regimes?
• What is the risk/benefit balance?
• Distancing from authoritarian but friendly
  regimes could have access implications as well
• Compensate through closer engagement with
  countries undergoing democratic change

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Engagement and Access Implications

• In Arab world, shift focus of U.S. security
  relationships from authoritarian states (Saudi
  Arabia, Egypt) to democratizing states (Bahrain,
  Qatar)
• Main operating bases in Iraq not desirable at
  this time, but should not foreclose option
• Throughout the Muslim world
• seek to reduce ungoverned areas that can become
  havens for terrorists
• Shift from bilateral to regional approaches to
  what are essentially transnational problems

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Bottom Line

• Islamic radicalism is driven by complex and
  interactive factors
• Some are common to Muslim world others vary
  widely from region to region regionally-based
  analysis is critical
• Key challenge for the U.S. is to identify and
  find common ground with liberal Muslims and find
  ways to help them counter the extremists
• Islamic networks play key role in spread of
  extremism there is critical need to build
  moderate Muslim networks
• Education a key battlefield problem is how to
  move reform of both secular and Islamic schools
• A democratization strategy will require
  comprehensive re-examination of U.S. defense
  relationships in Muslim world and will have
  engagement and access implications