PERT REVIEW (last part of Ch 7)

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TODAY

• PERT REVIEW (last part of Ch 7)
• CAPM Exam Details
• Time and Cost Estimation

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PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)

• Not supported by MS Project
• Gives you probabilities of completion of a
  project by a certain time
• Calculates a standard normal random variate and
  uses a probability table to find its probability

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PERT INPUTS

• A most optimistic time
• M most likely time
• B most pessimistic time

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PERT formulas

• Task mean (A 4M B)/6
• Task Std. Dev. (B-A)/6
• Project mean sum of all the task means of tasks
  on the critical path
• Project std. Dev sum of all the task standard
  deviations of tasks on the critical path

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Beta Distribution
a m
b
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PERT Homework Assignment
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The CAPM
- The cost of joining PMI student member is
32/year (32 to renew). Therefore, joining PMI
first (using the on-line registration) will
reduce your examination costs and you will
receive all of the other benefits and discounts
available to members. - To apply for the CAPM,
you need to have A secondary degree (high school
diploma or the global equivalent) AND at least
1,500 hours of project experience OR 23 hours of
project management education by the time you sit
for the exam. - To apply for the PMP, you need to
have A four-year degree (bachelors degree or
the global equivalent) AND at least three years
of project management experience, with 4,500
hours leading and directing projects and 35 hours
of project management education. - The CAPM exam
is focused on the PMBOK Guide. It consists of 150
questions made up of 135 'scored' questions and
15 pre-test questions (3-hour exam). The pass
mark for CAPM is at 65. There are no minimum
requirements in each section. The CAPM
certification lasts for 5 years. At the end of
this period you either need to re-sit the
examination or more likely take your PMP
examination. - The structure of the CAPM exam is

• The CAPM Certification lasts 5 years
• Then you must re-take the CAPM exam or take the
  PMP exam
• Joining PMI as a student costs 32/yr
• Joining gives you free access to PMBOK and other
  ebooks
• Joining reduces the cost to sit for the exam

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The CAPM Exam

• 150 Questions
• 15 pretest questions
• 135 actual exam questions over PMBOK
• 3 hour exam
• The pass threshold is 65

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CAPM Exam Structure
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Estimating Task Durations and Costs
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Estimation An ART

• That made McDonnell (of McDonnell/Douglas
  Aircraft) wealthy
• Accurate intelligence information is a help

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Three types of cost estimates

• Five-ten year-out planning
• Ballpark estimatesbetter to over estimate
• Used to make decisions about which projects will
  be funded when
• Two-year-out planning
• More refined estimates that consider current
  costs
• Immediate execution estimates
• Used to drive execution

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INPUTS 1. Activity list 2. Constraints 3.
Assumptions 4. Resource requirements 5.
Resource capabilities 6. Historical information
TOOLS 1. Expert judgment 2. Historical
data 3. Analogous estimating 4. Simulation
OUTPUTS 1. Activity duration estimates 2.
Basis of estimates 3. Activity list updates
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The Cost estimation StorySteve McConnell

• You cant tell exactly what its going to cost
  until you know exactly what IT is.
• (Which is why we spent so much time talking about
  thorough product conceptualization and
  definition)

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The WBS as price estimating tool

• Provides the basis for effective and open
  communication between functional management and
  program/project management
• After pricing is complete the WBS forms the basis
  of a communications tool by documenting the
  performance agreed on in the pricing effort.

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Differentiate Estimates from Targets and
Commitments

• We will have it done in three months
• Why three months???
• Because that is when the trade show happens

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Is it better to overestimate or under estimate
Effect Cost Schedule
Underestimation
Overestimation
100
lt100
gt100
Target as a Percentage of Nominal Estimate
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A Rule of Thumb

• The time to design, document and code a module
• equals the time to debug it (TEST IT)
• At least 45 of the total time devoted to testing
• According to Gildersleeve

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Cone of Uncertainty
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The Standish Groups Project Outcomes
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Estimating Rules (Rakos)

• Never use inexperienced persons to estimate
• Get group estimates if possible
• Never force an estimate on a programmer
• Never take an average of different estimates
• Granularize down to FOUR or less weeks, roughly
• Always add for contingency
• Always quote a range when giving estimates

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Rakos Conclusions to Estimating

• Our weakest talent
• Estimating is iterative
• Estimating is still an art

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Review Project Time Management Processes

• Project time management involves the processes
  required to ensure timely completion of a
  project. Processes include
• Define activities
• Sequence activities
• Estimate Activity resources
• Estimate Activity durations
• Develop Schedule
• Control Schedule
• Which of these gets performed in the Planning and
  Budgeting Stage??

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A Typical Task Duration Process

• Assign the task to a project player
• Ask the player how long it will take him or her
  to complete the task (This gives the player
  ownership in the planning)
• Player provides their best estimate
• The player understands that they will be required
  to complete the task within their estimatetheir
  feet will be held to the fire

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Time Estimation Goldratt

• Claims team players add safety to their estimates
• What is safety??
• Can determine how much by asking the question,
  How sure are you that you will finish your task
  in the time you allotted?

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Time Estimation--programmers

• Naïve programmers have a horrible reputation for
  underestimating task durations and costs

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Time Estimationmaking time for creativity SLACK

• Keep in mind that customers unintentionally put
  projects under extraordinary schedule
  pressuremore for less
• A consideration in schedule development is to
  take the tasks requiring creativity and place
  them on ____?!?

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Too little time syndrome
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Needed A Rule-based Expert System for adjusting
individual task durations

• IF ESTIMATER IS SEASONED (EXPERIENCED) AND IF THE
  WORK PACKAGE REQUIRES CREATIVITY ON THE PART OF
  THE ESTIMATOR, THEN LEAVE ESTIMATE AS IS.
• IF ESTIMATER IS NOT SEASONED AND ESTIMATE APPEARS
  TO BE OPTIMISTIC, THEN INCREASE ESTIMATE BY 30.

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ANOTHER AI RULE

• IF ESTIMATOR IS SEASONED AND ESTIMATOR ASSERTS
  90 OR ABOVE CONFIDENCE HE WILL COMPLETE WORK
  WITHIN HIS ESTIMATE AND IF WORK PACKAGE DOES NOT
  REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT CREATIVITY, REDUCE ESTIMATE
  BY 40 -- 50

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Time Estimation

• What are the three approaches to time
  estimation??
• Expert judgment
• History database
• Computer model or formula

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Project Cost Management Processes

• Plan Cost Management
• Estimate Costs developing an estimate of the
  costs and resources needed to complete a project
• Determine Budget allocating the overall cost
  estimate to individual work items to establish a
  baseline for measuring performance
• Control Costs controlling changes to the project
  budget

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Cost Estimating

• We need to speak the language and understand the
  terminology
• ROI, IRR, NPV, Sunk costs
• Tangible and intangible costs
• Direct and indirect costs
• Learning curve theory
• Reserves ( included in a cost estimate to
  mitigate cost risk also called contingency
  reserves)

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Cost Estimating

• An important output of project cost management is
  a cost estimate
• There are several types of cost estimates and
  tools and techniques to help create them
• It is also important to develop a cost management
  plan that describes how cost variances will be
  managed on the project

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Proposal Pricing Strategies--Kerzner

• Type I Acquisition One of a kind project with
  little or no follow-on opportunity
• win the project, perform well and make a profit
• Type II Acquisition New Program with potential
  for large follow-on business or representing a
  desired surge into a new market
• win the project, perform well and gain a foothold
  in a new market segment, usually at a loss

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Table 6-2. Three Types of Cost Estimates
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Overhead Rates

• Program/project costs involve both direct labor
  and indirect (OVERHEAD) costs
• Each team member should understand overhead rates
• If overhead rates are more than 50 of direct
  regular time and not chargeable to overtime, then
  overtime at 150 regular time may be cheaper
• Overhead rates in manufacturing can be 300-450

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Elements of Overhead Rates (Indirect Costs up
to 90 of total costs)

• Building maintenance
• Building rent
• Cafeteria
• Clerical
• Consulting
• Corporate Salaries
• Depreciation of equip.
• Executive Salaries

• Group Health insurance
• Holidays
• Moving/storage exp.
• Personnel recruitment
• Retirement plans
• Sick leave
• Telephone/Utilities
• Vacation

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Why are Overhead Rates of Interest to Project
Management???

• These rates must be included in any project cost
  calculation!!!
• The contractor is going to pay both your direct
  and your indirect overhead costs if yours is the
  winning bid
• Where do the costs associated with bidding and
  proposing go? Does anybody pay for them or are
  they just a SUNK cost???

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Estimation in GeneralCOST or TIME

• History data base
• Expert judgement
• a model like COCOMO

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Cost Estimation Tools and Techniques

• 4 basic tools and techniques for cost estimates
• Analogous or top-down use the actual cost of a
  previous, similar project as the basis for the
  new estimate
• Bottom-up estimate individual work items and sum
  them to get a total estimate, as is done with the
  WBS
• Parametric use project characteristics in a
  mathematical model to estimate costs
• Computerized tools use spreadsheets, project
  management software, or other software to help
  estimate costs

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Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO)

• Barry Boehm helped develop the COCOMO models for
  estimating software development costs
• Parameters include source lines of code or
  function points
• COCOMO II is a computerized model available on
  the web
• Boehm suggests that only parametric models do not
  suffer from the limits of human decision-making

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Factors Impacting COCOMO Cost
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Cost Realism

• A term widely used in the IT project management
  real
• Not an exact prediction
• Cost realism is about the system of logic, the
  assumptions about the future, and the
  reasonableness of the historical basis
• The more preliminary and less studied the
  estimate, the more It should over-state the
  actual cost

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Lets REVIEW What are the Major Cost Components?

• Salary structure
• Overhead structure (Indirect labor costs)
• 50 at TTU
• Direct Labor hours required times average hourly
  rate
• Cost of materials and support

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Cost of Materials??

• Required Software
• Diet coke, pizza

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Stop herewill not test you on anything else
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STOP!!!

• Stop
• Stop
• Stop
• Stop
• Stop
• Stops

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Lefkons Methodology
1.  Divide the software project into as many
individual steps/tasks/modules as
possible. 2. Predict the level of effort required
to complete each task and multiply that
prediction by 2. 3.  Add up the numbers and
multiply by 2.0 again to account for testing and
debugging. 4.  Take the total and multiply by
1.25 to account for meetings, administration, and
paperwork. 5. Multiply this level of effort by
your companys magic number for labor costs.  
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Lefkons Methodology

• 6. Present this to management as a range. Take
  the cost as predicted above and present the range
  as 10 percent and 25 percent.
• 7.  Stand your ground and remind management that
  you did not arbitrarily come up with these
  numbers and they cannot be adjusted arbitrarily.
  You may have to suggest reducing scope and cost
  if management does not agree with your estimate.
  
• 8. Revise your project budget as you undertake
  and complete the project.

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Typical Problems with IT Cost Estimates

• Developing an estimate for a large software
  project is a complex task requiring a significant
  amount of effort. Remember that estimates are
  done at various stages of the project
• Many people doing estimates have little
  experience doing them. Try to provide training
  and mentoring.
• IT People have a bias toward underestimation.
  Review estimates and ask important questions to
  make sure estimates are not biased
• Management wants a number for a bid, not a real
  estimate. Project managers must negotiate with
  project sponsors to create realistic cost
  estimates

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Table 6-3. Business Systems Replacement Project
Cost Estimate Overview
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Table 6-4. Business Systems Replacement Project
Cash Flow Analysis
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Cost Budgeting

• Cost budget involves allocating the project cost
  estimate to individual work items and providing a
  cost baseline
• For example, in the Business Systems Replacement
  project, there was a total purchased costs
  estimate for FY97 of 600,000 and another 1.2
  million for Information Services and Technology
• These amounts were allocated to appropriate
  budgets as shown in Table 6-5

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Table 6-5. Business Systems Replacement Project
Budget Estimates for FY97 and Explanations
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Designing the Baseline

• One of the most crucial inputs to the pricing
  decision
• Baseline design should be started early so its
  cost estimates can be included in the proposal
• Effective pricing should begin a long time before
  proposal development
• Gives management an opportunity to terminate a
  bid initiative before too many resources get
  committed to proposal development, presentations,
  negotiations, etc..

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Pricing Process

• This activity schedules the development of the
  work breakdown structure and provides management
  with two of the three operational tools necessary
  for the control of a system or project
• The third tool is the WBS

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The WBS as price estimating tool

• Provides the basis for effective and open
  communication between functional management and
  program/project management
• After pricing is complete the WBS forms the basis
  of a communications tool by documenting the
  performance agreed on in the pricing effort.

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Organizational Input Requirements

• After the WBS and activity schedules are
  established, an organizational meeting is called.
• The WBS is described in depth
• Responsibilities are clarified
• Costing information is solicited and collected
  from the responsible parties
• A short time fuse is usually involved in
  estimating/pricing which makes it all the more
  risky
• RFPs sometimes require a response within 30 days
  of their submittal

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Labor Distributions

• Functional units supply their input in the form
  of man-hours
• See Figure 14-2
• Man-hours submitted are often over-estimated
• Man-hours are converted to dollars by multiplying
  by the labor rates
• Rates are only averages
• Base rates are then escalated as a factor,
  based on past experience

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Labor Distributions--Conflict Resolution

• The reduction of man-hours is often the source of
  heated discussions between project and functional
  management
• Most common solution rests with the project or
  program manager
• This becomes the usual turf-fight
• How would you resolve all such conflicts???

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A Proposal Manager

• Integrates the activities of the program and
  functional managers
• Insures that a robust proposal gets submitted to
  the REQUESTER on time

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Overhead Rates

• Program/project costs involve both direct labor
  and indirect (OVERHEAD) costs
• Each team member should understand overhead rates
• If overhead rates are more than 50 of direct
  regular time and not chargeable to overtime, then
  overtime at 150 regular time may be cheaper
• Overhead rates in manufacturing can be 300-450

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Elements of Overhead Rates (Indirect Costs)

• Building maintenance
• Building rent
• Cafeteria
• Clerical
• Consulting
• Corporate Salaries
• Depreciation of equip.
• Executive Salaries

• Group insurance
• Holidays
• Moving/storage exp.
• Personnel recruitment
• Retirement plans
• Sick leave
• Telephone/Utilities
• Vacation

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Why are Overhead Rates of Interest to Project
Management???

• These rates must be included in any project cost
  calculation!!!
• The contractor is going to pay both your direct
  and your indirect overhead costs if yours is the
  winning bid
• Where do the costs associated with bidding and
  proposing go? Does anybody pay for them or are
  they just a SUNK cost???

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Lets REVIEW What are the Major Cost Components?

• Salary structure
• Overhead structure
• Labor hours required
• Cost of materials and support

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Cost of Materials??

• Required Software
• Diet coke, pizza

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Materials Support Costs

• Are submitted by month for each month of the
  project
• An escalation factor for material costs must be
  applied

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Pricing out the WorkSTEPS (from Kerzner, p. 738)

• Provide a complete definition of the work
  requirements
• Establish a logic network with checkpoints
• Develop the work breakdown structure
• Price out the WBS

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Pricing out the Work--STEPS, Contd

• Review WBS costs with each functional manager
• Decide on the basic course of action
• Establish reasonable costs for each WBS element
• Review the base case costs with upper-level
  management

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Pricing out the Work--STEPS, Contd

• Negotiate with functional managers for qualified
  personnel
• Develop the linear responsibility chart
• Develop the final detailed and PERT/CPM schedules
• Establish pricing cost summary reports
• Document the result in a project plan

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Smoothing out Department Man-hours

• Ramp-up at project initiation and Ramp-down at
  project completion cause step functions in
  manpower requirements, as shown in Figure 14-8
• Functional managers attempt to SMOOTH this out
• QUESTION?? Does the department have sufficient
  resources to fulfill the requirements?

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Smoothing out Department Man-hours

• ANOTHER QUESTION?? Can the departments ramp-up
  fast enough?

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The Pricing Review Procedure

• Based on Kerzners work
• Remember only 30 days to get the proposal out and
  this is one of 13 steps
• Many contractors require the actual team members
  to be identified in the proposal
• What solution comes to mind?

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Systems Pricing

• The project pricing model (also called the
  strategic planning model) acts as a management
  information system
• Also provides management with an invaluable tool
  for performing perturbation analysis on the base
  case costs

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Developing the Supporting/Backup Costs

• Some proposals require backup support
• When required backup support must be included in
  the pricing
• An issue is the type of contract

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Types of contracts

• Fixed-price (developer assumes all of the risk)
• Cost-plus (contractor pays for every hour
  invested and thus assumes all the risk)
• An infinite array in between these

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The Low-Bidder Dilemma

• The price of your contract will definitely affect
  the viability of your proposal
• A low price on cost-plus type proposals is
  suspect
• A low price on fixed-price contracts may be
  perceived as impossible and undoable, or if
  accepted will lead to a disaster

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The Price on the Proposal is always relative to

• the competitive prices
• the customer budget
• the bidders cost estimate
• IN ANY CASE, LOW PRICING WITHOUT MARKET
  INFORMATION IS MEANINGLESS

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If its a new market for the Developer

• Cost sharing may be an effective strategy
• Bidding below your actual costs is commonplace
• Contractors objectives might include system life
  cycle cost or unit production cost

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The Bottom Line on Price

• THE LOWEST BIDDER IS NOT NECESSARILY THE
  AUTOMATIC WINNER
• Makes project a risky image regarding cost,
  performance or schedule
• The ability to perform under contract is a
  definite consideration
• A compliant, technically and managerially sound
  proposal based on past experience, with
  realistic, well-documented cost figures, is often
  chosen over the lowest bidder

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Special Problems

• Pricing must include an understanding of cost
  control--how costs are billed back to the project
• There are three situations
• Work is priced out at the department average, and
  all work performed is charged to the project at
  the department average, regardless of who
  performed the work
• Work is priced out at the dept.. average, but all
  work performed is billed back to the project at
  the actual salary of the employees who performed
  the work
• Work is priced out at the actual salary of those
  employees who will perform the work, and the cost
  is billed back the same way.
• This is the ideal situation

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This is as far as we will go with these
slidesignore the remainder
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Estimating Pitfalls

• The buy-in decision is the most serious pitfall
  because it means that the project will be
  under-funded
• If the customer initially defines the
  requirements and you (the developer) further
  refine them and the customer doesnt understand
  what youve done, whose fault is it?

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Estimating High-Risk Projects

• Validity of historical estimates determine the
  difference between high-risk and low-risk
  projects
• Estimating high-risk projects is commonly done by
  means of the rolling wave or moving window
  approach
• For a 12-month project the first six months are
  estimated to level 5, while the last six months
  are estimated to level two only.
• As the project proceeds more and more of the last
  six months is estimated to level 5
• See Figure 14-13, Kerzner

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Project Risks

• RISKS--Factors that increase the probability that
  the projects goals of time, cost and performance
  will not be met
• See Figures 14-14, 14-15 and Table 14-13
  (Especially useful)

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Common Risks include

• Poorly defined requirements
• Lack of qualified resources
• Lack of management support
• Poor estimating
• Inexperienced project manager

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Tools to Aid in Risk Identification

• Decision Support Systems
• Expected value measures
• Trend analysis/projection
• Independent reviews and audits

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Six steps to risk management are

• Identification of the risk
• Quantification of the risk
• Prioritizing the risk
• Developing a strategy for managing the risk
• A contingency plan
• Project sponsor/executive review
• Taking action

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The Disaster of Applying the 10 Solution to
Project Estimates

• 10 is taken from every on-going project to
  create a budget out of thin air
• The result is havoc on top of chaos
• Most high-level executive committees do not
  realize the impact of adopting the 10 solution
• A REDUCTION IN BUDGET MUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
  TRADEOFF IN TIME OR PERFORMANCE

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The Disaster of the 10 Solution, Contd

• 90 of the budget generates 10 of the desired
  service or performance levels and the remaining
  10 will generate the last 90 of the desired
  service or performance
• If there is FAT, i.e., padding, it may, however,
  be possible to sustain a cut in the project
  budget without major consequence
• Most projects do not have FAT

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Cost vs. Performance

• I much prefer the word performance to quality
  here
• A 10 reduction in cost can be expected to
  produce much greater than a 10 reduction in
  performance

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More on the 10 Solution

• 10 reduction solutions should be undertaken only
  after a careful impact study has been completed
• A far better choice is for the executive
  committee to cancel or de-scope some projects in
  order to release funds

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14.19 Life-Cycle Costing (LCC)

• These are the total costs to the organization for
  the ownership and acquisition of a product over
  its full life
• Especially appropriate for in-house software
  development projects, but is used in some
  (outhouse) contracted projects as well

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Life-cycle cost breakdown

• R D Costs (Definition, Analysis)
• Production cost (Design)
• Construction cost (Programming and testing)
• Operation and maintenance cost
• Product retirement cost

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Life-cycle costing process

• Define the problem
• Define the requirements of the cost model being
  used
• Collect historical data-cost relationships
• Develop estimates and test results

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Successful applications of LCC will

• Provide downstream resource impact visibility
• Provide life-cycle cost management
• Influence RD decision making
• Support downstream strategic budgeting

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Estimating Methods for LCC

• Method choice is based on the problem context,
  operational considerations, etc.
• Informal estimating methods
• Judgment based on experience
• Analogy
• SWAG method, ROM method
• Rule-of-thumb method
• Formal estimating methods
• Detailed (from industrial engineering standards)
• Parametric

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Figure 14-18

• For every 12 DOD puts into RD, 28 are needed
  downstream for production and 60 for operation
  and support
• After Conceptual definition and
  demonstration/validation, 85 of the lifecycle
  decisions are made and cost reduction
  opportunities are down to 22

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14.20 Logistics Support

• A frequent occurrence in software development
  where the developer is paid to provide
  after-market support in the form of operation and
  maintenance on the product (deliverable)
• Recall that after the design phase 85 of the
  deliverables life-cycle cost has been committed
  and the majority of the total life-cycle cost is
  still ahead gtgt 60

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Performance metrics for Products requiring
Logistics Support

• Suppportability--the ability to maintain or
  acquire the necessary human resources to support
  the system
• Readiness--measure of how good we are at keeping
  the product performing as planned and how quickly
  we can make repairs during a shutdown

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Ten elements of logistics support

• Maintenance planning
• Manpower and personnel
• Supply support
• Support equipment
• Technical data
• See page 765

• Training and training support
• Computer resources support
• Facilities
• Packaging, handling, storage and transportation
• Design interface

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Estimating --

• An iterative process
• Definition, Analysis, Design
• After Definition, 50-100 off
• After Analysis, 25-50 off
• After Medium level design--within 10
• A good WBS is absolutely essential to do
  estimating

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Estimating Techniques

• Professional Judgment
• Developer estimate
• History (database)
• Formulas

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Use of Professional Judgment

• Based on WBS, an expert judgment estimate is made
  for each work package
• Amazingly accurate when experts are available
• Often, however experts arent available

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Developer Estimate

• The programmer assigned to the work package will
  make every effort to complete the task in the
  time he estimated it would take

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Use of History Database

• For this to work, your firm must keep a history
  database
• The database should record how long each task
  took and who did the task
• Break new projects up into tasks that have a
  history database
• 8 to 1 productivity ratio between best to worst
  professional

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Questions, Contd

• How much of the total time does Brooks devote to
  Definition, Analysis and Design?
• 1/3
• How much time to coding?
• 1/6 to Coding
• How much time to testing?
• 1/4 to component test and early system test
• 1/4 to total system test
• So how much time are you going to devote to
  testing in your projects?????

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Use of Formulas

• COCOMO--project cost, effort, schedule, staffing
  for each of the phases
• Preliminary design
• Detailed design
• Code and unit test
• System test
• COCOMO was developed by Barry Boehm in
  1981--COnstructive COst MOdel

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Inputs to COCOMO

• Monthly cost of staff involved
• Factors indicating the general level of
  complexity of the software
• Programming practices and tools used
• Experience of staff
• Lines of LOSC--rendering COCOMO unusable

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Function Points

• A user input
• User display
• Peripheral I/O
• Restructuring data
• Condition checking
• Calculation
• Branching

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Function point approach--BEFORE YOU LEAP

• Vendor is Gordon Group
• It must know how many LOSC are required for each
  function point.
• It calculates LOSC based on function points it
  knows about and feeds this into the COCOMO
  algorithm

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Estimacs from CA (Computer Associates)

• Can take into account modern code generation
  tools
• Determines effort, but also
• Hardware required
• financial break-even analysis
• risk analysis
• maintenance costs
• Expensive gt 20K

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Estimating Programming Function Points

• D C ( G J)
• D is the task duration in person-days
• C is the complexity of the task
• G is the assigned persons general experience
• J is the assigned professionals job knowledge
  factor

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Complexity

• Must break task down into its smallest possible
  repeatable functions
• Then add up the complexity of each function
• User input, user display, peripheral I/O,
  restructuring data, condition checking,
  calculation, etc.
• Repeatable functions are called function points.
• Function points are graded as SIMPLE, COMPLEX and
  VERY COMPLEX

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Productivity

• Your average programmer gets a productivity
  factor of 1 for G
• Slower programmers get factors gt 1
• Faster programmers get factors lt 1

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Formula method conclusions

• Will work if you develop accurate factors
• Can be used for any task from building a house to
  developing software
• Depends on how well you granularize

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Estimating The Analysis Phase

• Interviews
• Analyze Existing Documents and Systems
• Prepare Functional Specification
• Presentation

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RATIOS

• PHASE PERCENTAGE
• Definition phase -- 10
• Analysis phase -- 20
• Design phase -- 10
• Programming -- 20
• System test -- 17
• Acceptance -- 7
• Operation -- 16

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This breaks down to

• PLAN -- 40
• BUILD -- 20
• TEST -- 40

124
Another Rule of Thumb

• The time to design, document and code a module
• equals the time to debug it
• According to Gildersleeve

125
Can you use RATIOS for Forecasting?

• Suppose you found that it took 20 days to do
  definition.
• How long, based on ratios will it take to do the
  project?

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Estimating Rules

• Never use inexperienced persons to estimate
• Get group estimates if possible
• Never force an estimate on a programmer
• Never take an average of different estimates
• Granularize down to one week or less
• Always add for contingency
• Always quote a range when giving estimates

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Conclusions to Estimating

• Our weakest talent
• Estimating is iterative
• Estimating is still an art

128
Scheduling --

• Also assists with estimating, especially when PM
  software is used

129
PM software supports

• WBS
• Gantt
• PERT
• Calendar(s)
• Resources and their assignments

130
PERT

• Use activity on node approach
• doesnt require dummy activities
• Understand what float is--it is slack
• Critical path is the longest path
• shows precedent activities, relationships
• doesnt show what will be done when, by whom

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Resource allocation

• Assign tasks to individuals whose skill level
  suits the task
• Assign similar tasks to the same person
• Assign time-critical tasks to your most reliable
  people
• Assign tasks that communicate to the same
  individual to minimize peoples interaction
• Dont assign too many different tasks to any one
  individual

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Reducing task duration by adding manpower

• Add 20 direct time for each additional member on
  a professional team
• If it takes 10 person days for one person, it
  will take 12 person days for two people, 14.4
  person days for three people, etc.

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Cost effects of adding resources

• More resources, gets the project done sooner,
  USUALLY
• But it also costs more
• The PM must come up with the best balance,
  depending on the priorities set by management or
  the user

134
Shortening the duration of projects

• Fast tracking
• Crashing
• Adding resources to the critical path
• Allowing your current CP teams members to work
  overtime

135
Crashing projects

• Crash tasks on the critical path only, only as
  long as no other path becomes critical
• If other paths become critical, the analyst must
  crash those as well

136
Gantt Chart

• a time bar chart
• Invented by Henry Gantt in 1910
• Determine the units of time
• Mark all known calendar events at bottom
• Schedule each activity from PERT

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Use three sets of Gantts

• one for yourself alone, with all float and
  contingency visible
• second for the individuals involved--their
  resource Gantt, contingencies hidden
• third for distribution to upper
  management--contingencies hidden
• Include a 10 contingency into all estimates

138
Conclusions to Scheduling

• Use PM software--worth every penny
• Do at least one PERT and one GANTT manually, just
  to get a feel for the process

139
Recitation

• What is the probability of completing a project
  by its estimated completion time??
• What is the formula for calculating the
  completion time for a PERT network?
• What is the formula for calculating the standard
  deviation of the completion time for a PERT
  network?
• Name some processes that are part of project
  integration management

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