STARMAP YEAR 3

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STARMAPYEAR 3

• N. Scott Urquhart
• STARMAP Director
• Department of Statistics
• Colorado State University
• Fort Collins, CO 80523-1877

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STARMAP FUNDINGSpace-Time Aquatic Resources
Modeling and Analysis Program

• The work reported here today was developed under
  the STAR Research Assistance Agreement CR-829095
  awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection
  Agency (EPA) to Colorado State University. This
  presentation has not been formally reviewed by
  EPA.  The views expressed here are solely those
  of presenters and STARMAP, the Program they
  represent. EPA does not endorse any products or
  commercial services mentioned in these
  presentation.

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TODAYS COMMENTS ABOUT STARMAP

• Background Comments
• Research
• Outputs
• Publications/presentations
• Training future generations of environmental
  statisticians
• Extension/Outreach/Cooperation
• Meetings
• Learning Materials
• Recruiting
• Plans for the year ahead
• Research
• Meetings

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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEARSTARMAP RESEARCH - A
FOCUS

• EPA released the report, Response of Surface
  Water Chemistry to the Clean Air Act Amendments
  of 1990 (EPA/620/R-02/004)
• Was submitted to Congress in January, 2003
• Statistical techniques available for it
  were severely limited in several dimensions
• Good illustration of tools we need to develop
• Used as presentation illustration
• STARMAP investigators are using
• The context for model assumptions
• Data on which this report was based

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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEARSTARMAP RESEARCH
Project 1

• Combining/analyzing environmental data
• Bayesian methods
• Extension of contingency table methods
• Devin Johnson
• Finished PhD, now at University of Alaska
  continuing
• Selection of spatial models Andrew Merton
• Megan Dailey is starting work on this project
• Book on Computational Statistics
• Spatial statistics
• Designing to estimate semivariograms Kerry
  Ritter Molly Leecaster
• How much spatial correlation in aquatic
  responses? - nsu
• Alix Gitelman (OSU) graph methods
• Originally under Project 2 work is closer to
  Project 1
• Steve Jensen short talk
• Jennifer Hoeting (PI) will comment further

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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR STARMAP RESEARCH
Project 2

• Local Estimation/Survey Methods
• Jointly funded by STARMAP and DAMARS
• Methods to improve survey summaries using
  auxiliary information
• From design-based to model-based
• Major collaboration with Jean Opsomer, Iowa
  State U
• Ji-Yeon Kim and Gerda Claeskens
• Giovanna Ranalli post doc, not here right now
• Two from cooperating fellows from Taiwan
• Nan-Jung Hsu and Hsin-Cheng Huang
• Progress on procedures for smoothing data from
  river networks
• Jay Breidt will expand on this during his talk
• Mark Delorey and Bill Coar

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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR STARMAP RESEARCH
Project 3

• Indicator Development
• GIS work support is funded here
• SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS in GRTS sampling
• Will be reported at Monitoring Science and
  Technology conference week after next (Denver)
• Good cooperation with Region 8 and Western
  Ecology Division
• Erin Poston, who will give a talk tomorrow, is
  funded here.
• Dave Theobald (PI) will comment further
• Promising GIS tools are under development and
  testing

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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR STARMAP RESEARCH
Project 4

• Extension/Outreach
• Urquhart (PI)
• Ill return to this as next to the last major
  topic
• Only opportunity to talk about outreach here

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TRAINING - RESULTS

• Governing RAF states
• cadre of graduates would be developed who
  would have the expertise and experience in survey
  design and analysis needed to fill a gap in the
  expertise required to successfully monitor the
  condition of the Nations aquatic resources.
• Students early career professionals
• Students
• One PhD 4 Masters completed
• 5 PhD, 4 stat 1 landscape ecology
• 2 MS
• Early-career professionals - 8

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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEARTRAINING CONTINUED

• Field experience
• Several ongoing
• All toured past EMAP sites near OSU last year
• All had a tour of WED/EMAP last year
• Visits to other EPA facilities
• Theobald Poston interacted with personnel at
  Region 8 recently
• All CSU students attended a meeting a Region 8 in
  May of this year
• Gitelman will comment about her interactions
  with Ken Reckhow later today.

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OUTPUTS

• Relevant statistical research in the form of
• Publications
• Worked examples in the Case studies part of
  the learning materials
• The Generalized Random Tessellation
  Stratified sampling process
• Implemented correctly in ARCView
• Prediction of probability of perennialness of
  stream traces
• Add to sampling procedure by end of Program

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OUTPUTS in YEAR 3

• PUBLICATIONS
• 9 professional publications in print or
  accepted
• Including a book
• 12 in various stages of submission and review
• 26 manuscripts in various stages of development
• Presentations
• 37 completed
• 5 more by end of year 3
• To a variety of audiences, domestic and
  international

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OUTPUTS in YEAR 3continued

• STUDENT PROGRESS
• PhDs
• Four nearing completion
• Three Stat
• One geoscience
• Masters
• Two completed this year
• One _at_ CSU, one _at_ OSU
• Two more in progress

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MEETINGS

• Graybill Conference success
• Proceedings will be published as an issue of
  Environmental and Ecological Statistics
• Friendly outlet for young environmental
  statisticians
• Topic contributed paper session at 2004 Joint
  Statistics Meetings with the Chicago Center
• Success
• Monitoring Science and Technology Symposium
• Two and a half days of sessions on statistical
  aspects of monitoring
• Half day tutorial on GRTS sampling

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MEETINGS - WHY?

• TRAINING
• Provide opportunities for students to gain
  relevant professional experience
• DEVELOPMENT OF YOUNG ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICIANS
• Early career environmental statisticians
• Gain stature in our discipline
• OUTREACH/EXTENSION to
• Statistical community Graybill Conference
• Users of statistics Monitoring Science
  Technology

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RECRUITING

• Post-doctoral fellows
• Modest success will continue efforts
• Giovanna Ranalli was here for four months, and
  will return in October
• Director will continue to be active in
  recruiting
• Students for the CSU statistics graduate program
• In high school advanced placement statistics
• We need undergraduate majors in relevant areas
  to recruit for future graduate students
• Urquhart visited 8 AP classes in four high
  schools last year
• More visits are being arranged for next year
• Developed some dynamic graphics for power and r2
• Example

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LEARNING MATERIALS

• Jointly funded by STARMAP DAMARS
• Browser based (web access NOT needed)
• To be delivered via CD ROM
• Substantial opportunities for individualization
• Perspective
• Senior administrator to
• Implementer to
• Researcher
• Landscape setting
• Evaluation feedback - OSU test was positive
• Evaluators state, tribal EPA regional
• Article in Tribal News

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CONTENT OF LEARNING MATERIALSPROGRESS

• Why Monitor?
• Draft completed and tested
• Where to Monitor? ( GRTS-type sampling)
• Draft completed and tested
• What to monitor Indicators
• Nothing started on this yet
• How to Monitor? ( Field Operations)
• EPA Field Operations Manuals
• Training videotaped in May for inclusion in this
  part
• We have PowerPoint presentations from training
• Student is working on this (MS)

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CONTENT OF LEARNING MATERIALSPROGRESS(continued)

• How to summarize.
• Student has started on this
• Case studies
• Several current efforts will be turned into
  these
• Distribution of completed materials
• Preliminary discussions with the Council of State
  Governments have been very encouraging.

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DYNAMIC ILLUSTRATION OF POINT LOCATION

• Strahler order 1, 2 3 represented by
  trace thickness
• Relative probability by order
• First 0.25
• Second 0.50
• Third 1.00
• Points appear in sampling order
• Slowly at first
• Then faster
• Loops back to first point

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PLANS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD

• Project 1 - continue present work
• Expand designs for spatial modeling
• Explore data resulting from San Diego study
• Project 2 continue developments
• Emphasize small area (local) estimation
• Potentially valuable for 305(b) gt 303(d)
  reporting
• Project 3 - complete GRTS sampling in GIS
• Apply tools to develop indicators
• Regional species richness
• Outreach continue development of cooperation
• Case studies
• Continue implementation testing
• At any suitable venue

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ACCUMULATING AQUATIC SPATIAL DATA

• How much spatial correlation really is present
  in aquatic responses, after accounting for
  habitat features?
• Urquhart has been seeking data sets to look at
  this
• Streams in Virginia
• Ohio River about 400 points
• Detroit River 100 or so over short distance
• Estuaries one in northeast
• Near coastal San Diego Project
• Discussed under Kerry Ritters presentation

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FUTURE MEETINGS

• Computational Environmetrics, October 21-23,
  2004, in Chicago, Illinois
• Statistics and Environment Section of the
  American Statistical Association (ASA) and
• The Center for Integrating the Statistical and
  the Environmental Science (CISES) at the
  Department of Statistics, University of Chicago.
• Three short courses Jennifer Hoeting will be
  involved in two
• Jay Breidt Devin Johnson are invited speakers
• DAMARS/STARMAP in 2005
• At Oregon State University
• Tentative dates September 9 10, 2005
• Advice Content Audience

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FUTURE MEETING POSSIBILITIES

• Special session for next years North American
  Benthological Society Meeting
• Symposium on the interface between GIS and
  statistics
• Especially relevant as ArcGIS now has spatial
  statistics components
• As distinct from its geostatistics modules
• Code is open and alterable
• Dave Theobald can say more about this possibility