Scrutiny Presentation

1
Scrutiny Presentation

• Pupil Forecasting Methodology, Harpenden
  forecasts and place planning

2
Pupil Forecasts - Background

• Local Authorities have a statutory duty to secure
  an adequate number of school places for resident
  children of statutory school age.
• Our forecasting system is the means by which the
  future supply and demand for places is
  calculated.
• The system, introduced in 2003, is based on the
  audit commissions recommendations for pupil
  number forecasting.

3
Methodology

• Forecasts are based on 22 education planning
  areas, e.g. Hemel Hempstead, St Albans,
  Harpenden. See map.
• Data sets are imported into the forecasting
  system in April each year to produce the annual
  pupil forecasts.
• The data sets include
• Actual Pupil Numbers (PLASC) - Unique pupil
  number, year group, their school now and last
  year.
• GP Registrations (Health Authority) - Postcodes
  and dates of birth
• New Housing Completions Predictions (Environment
  Department Database)

4
Calculating the forecast

• GP Registrations Number of 0 5 year olds
  in an area to predict future
  reception admissions (taking
  account of cohort survival)
• Actual Pupil Numbers Cohort Survival rates
• Secondary transfer predictions
• New Housing Pupil yield from new
• developments housing
• Schools Details of new/closed schools,
• capacities and admission numbers
• Weightings 321 using three years of historic
• data

5
Accuracy of Forecast

• Audit Commission guidelines are for Local
  Authorities to produce forecasts that are within
  /-1 accurate for both primary and secondary
  pupils.
• Countywide, the accuracy of the forecasts is as
  follows

SECONDARY SECONDARY SECONDARY PRIMARY PRIMARY PRIMARY
Year of Forecast Forecast Total NOR Actual Total NOR Overall Accuracy at Secondary Forecast Total NOR Actual Total NOR Overall Accuracy at Primary
April 2003 79972 78158 2.3 87108 86800 0.4
April 2004 78943 79677 -0.9 85560 84807 0.9
April 2005 79951 80331 -0.5 84471 83937 0.6
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Harpenden forecasts of pupil numbers

• The Harpenden secondary planning area includes St
  Georges, Sir John Lawes Roundwood Park
  schools.
• Within the Harpenden planning area, the accuracy
  of the forecasts are as follows

SECONDARY SECONDARY SECONDARY PRIMARY PRIMARY PRIMARY
Year of Forecast Forecast Total NOR Actual Total NOR Overall Accuracy at Secondary Forecast Total NOR Actual Total NOR Overall Accuracy at Primary
April 2003 3247 3293 -1.4 4092 4021 1.7
April 2004 3320 3362 -1.3 4043 4000 1.1
April 2005 3386 3425 -1.2 4052 4041 0.3
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Harpenden Forecasts and Actual admission numbers
Year Forecast published Forecast Year of Admission to Year 7 Previous years Year 6 NOR in Harpenden Primaries Forecast Admissions to Year 7 Allocations as at end of CI process Actual Year 7 (PLASC)
2002 Sept 03 592 503 562 549
April 03 Sept 04 556 501 490 520
April 04 Sept 05 543 522 543 548
April 05 Sept 06 608 553 561 n/a
This includes primary schools in the areas of
Redbourn, Harpenden, Wheathampstead, The Waldens
and Hemel Rural North. Pre-dates current
forecast system As at Round 3 of Continuing
Interest process, May 2006, with additional
places available through In Year Variations
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Meeting parental preference
2005 2005 2006 2006
No No
No of Hertfordshire children allocated a ranked school 12288 94 11603 94.06
Non ranked allocations 784 6 733 5.94
Previous hotspots South West Herts Mill End
Maple Cross Letchworth
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Additional places provided in Harpenden
PAN 2000 PAN 2001 PAN 2002 PAN 2003 PAN 2004 PAN 2005 PAN 2006 IYV 2006
Sir John Lawes 162 162 180 180 180 180 180 187
St Georges 150 150 150 150 150 180 180 180
Roundwood Park 165 165 180 180 180 182 182 207
Area Total 477 477 510 510 510 542 542 574
The Admission numbers include 20 boarders
11
Managing the forecast demand

• Although the forecast showed unsatisfied demand
  from 11 children in the area for September 2006,
  previous experience had shown that this was not a
  level where action would be required.
• Consideration was given to the demand for places
  balanced with the potential risk providing
  additional places may have created for the future.

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Possible reasons for the current position

• We have looked at the possible reasons for the
  current position which may be attributed to one
  or more of the following
• Change in parental preference
• A growth in positive perception of Harpenden
  secondary schools
• A higher number of sibling connections
• Impact of changes to schools outside the area,
  e.g.
• Schools in neighbouring areas going through
  difficulties
• A change within the independent school sector,
  e.g. increase in fees/closure/achievement
• Impact of PAN London

13
Lessons to be learned

• The April 2006 forecast has started to take
  account of the increase in the proportion of
  pupils transferring to secondary school in
  Harpenden and has revised Year 7 estimates to
  reflect the change.
• Improve the process of monitoring and evaluating
  the demand within identified hotspots within the
  planning function
• Review lessons to be learned at the end of this
  process

Year Forecast published Forecast Year of Admission to Year 7 Previous years Year 6 NOR in Harpenden Primaries Forecast Admissions to Year 7 Allocations as at end of CI process Actual Year 7 (PLASC)
April 2006 Sept 07 574 555 n/a n/a