Earthquake Early Warning Where we are and where we are going

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Earthquake Early WarningWhere we are and where
we are going

• Principal Collaborators
• Caltech Hauksson, E., Böse, M., Heaton, T.
• UC Berkeley Allen, R., Hellweg, P.
• Swiss Seismological Service, ETH
  Clinton, J., Cua, G.
• U. of Washington Vidale, J., Bodin, P.
• SCEC Jordan, T., Maechling, P.
• Moore Foundation Atherton, C.
• USGS Given, D., Cochran, E., Oppenheimer, D.

Doug GivenUSGS Earthquake Early Warning
Coordinator
CISN Steering Committee March 25, 2013
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CISN Post-seismic Earthquake Products

• ShakeMap
• CISN Display
• ShakeCast
• Pager
• ENS
• And more

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Anza M4.7 .avi
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Current CISN EEW Status
Status today Demonstration system
Next three years Production Prototype Thanks
to partnerships
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Potential Uses of Early Warning?

• Human Response
• Drop, cover, and hold on
• Evacuate hazardous areas
• Brace for shaking(surgeons, dentists, etc.)
• Automated Response
• Slow or stop trains, traffic
• Close valves, gates
• Stop elevators
• Open firehouse doors
• Slow or stop machinery
• ?

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Main Components of EEW System

• Dense sensors (seismic GPS)
• Reliable field telemetry
• Fast processing to determine
• Location, magnitude
• Fault extent slip
• Fast mass notification
• End user interaction education

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West CoastCenters

• EEW is a natural extension of ANSS CISN core
  capabilities
• Leverage
• Technical
• Management
• Community engagement

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CISN will be transformed by EEW

• More stations, upgraded stations
• More robust telemetry
• Tighter integration with (inclusion of) GPS
• Need for more rigorous testing and monitoring for
  EEW than current products
• More staff at Tier 1 centers
• More interaction with users
• More partnerships
• Funding?

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CISN Funding (2011)Not including EEW
Total 10.4M (USGS 8.9M, CalEMA
1.5M) Does not include CSMIP
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Investments in EEW
The USGS has directly funded research and
development toward earthquake early warning
since 2006 with the goal of creating an
operational warning capability in the
highest-risk regions of the United States.
Director, USGS
Moore Foundation (2012-2015)
USGS

• External grants R D for EEW
• Phase I II (2006-2012) 2,093,851
• Phase III (2012-2015) 1st yr ? 450,000
• ARRA California (2009-2011) 4,426,110
• Network equipment upgrades
• MultiHazards Project (2008-2012) 1,618,150
• San Andreas sensors, digital upgrades,production
  computers, personnel

• Caltech 1,996,888
• UC Berkeley 2,040,889
• Univ. of Washington 1,848,351
• USGS 594,406

TOTAL 8,588,111
TOTAL 6,480,534
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Technical Progress on EEW

• Installing/upgrading sensors
• Redesigning telemetry
• R D continues
• Improving algorithms
• Fin-Der, GPS techniques
• IPAWS-WEA, phone app
• Beta user outreach, UD v2.4, social science, web
  sites

• Dense sensors
• Reliable telemetry
• Fast processing for
• Location, magnitude
• Fault extent slip
• Fast mass notification
• End user education

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ShakeOut finite fault - .avi
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Implementation Summary(with current modest
funding levels)

• Upgrade network infrastructure as opportunities
  arise
• Continue algorithm development and implementation
  
• Gordon Betty Moore funding ? RD
• USGS EEW funding (Phase III) ? implementation
• Create production thread - operationalize
  current demonstration thread
• Develop West Coast architecture for redundant,
  fail-safe operation
• Develop operational performance metrics and
  monitoring
• Continue user interaction, create new
  partnerships
• Complete implementation plan, cost benefit
  analysis, telemetry plan, etc.

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Full West Coast Implementation(estimate)
California Pacific Northwest West Coast (CAPNW)
One-Time Construction costs 23,165,072 15,146,920 38,311,992
Annual Operation and Maintenance 11,888,128 4,607,909 16,496,037
California Pacific Northwest West Coast (CAPNW)
One-Time Construction costs 23M 15M 38M
Annual Operation and Maintenance 12M 5M 17M

• Personnel to bring ANSS (CISN) network staffing
  up to robust levels
• Personnel at each center for EEW operation and
  user outreach
• Personnel for EEW central implementation and
  testing
• Support for continued algorithm software
  development
• 700 new or upgrades seismic stations 300 GPS
  stations
• Significant field telemetry upgrades

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California SB 135 on EEW
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Other Recent EEW Developments

• BART live since Aug. 2012
• Production system is being built
• UD v2.4 released, alpha phone app
• ShakeAlert being installed at UW
• Web sites created shakealert.org at partner
  sites
• 1st draft of implementation plan with budget
  completed
• Los Angeles area UASI funding for new upgraded
  station
• Partners developing strategy for congressional
  support

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Summary

• USGS CISN partners are committed to building
  and operating EEW for highest risk areas of CA
• ShakeAlert has been sending test EEW
  notifications since January 2012
• Work has begun on the production system
• Significant progress is being made in all parts
  of the system despite limited resources
• Partners are coordinating to build support at
  federal and state levels

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Thank You