Ulrich J

1
Ulrich JürgensWissenschaftszentrum Berlin für
SozialforschungSocial Science Center Berlin for
Social Research
Strategies with Regard to Market, Product
Innovation, Technology and Organization

• Topics
• Globalization revisited
• Product innovation
• Industry organization

2
52 Car Makers in the World
3
Automobile Production by World Regions
(Passenger and Commercial Vehicles, 1997 and
2003, in 1000 Units)
Quelle oica.com
4
Forecast on Value Added Development in the
Automotive Industry Worldwide 2002 2015 (FAST
2015)
2002 2015 Change
Vehicle production (million units) 57 76 33,3
Value added OEM ( billion) 228 203 11,0
Value added suppliers ( billion) 417 700 67,0
Value added total ( billion) 645 903 40,0
Automobile development/production, light
vehicles Source Mercer Management Consulting,
Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft (2003)
5
Share of World Regions in Automotive Industry
Value Added 2002 and 2015
Change 67,3
Change 328,0
Change 259,5
Change 19,3
Change 10,6
Change -51,2
Change 17,4
Change 65,6
Source Mercer Management Consulting, Fraunhofer
Gesellschaft (2003)
6
Shares of Production, Domestic vs. Abroad, of
Major Car Makers (2003)
Source Automotive News Data Center
(autonews.com), VDA (2004) International Auto
Statistics, own calculations.
7
Globalization Structure of Selected Car Makers
(in Percent)
Source Own calculations on the basis of IMF Auto
Report 2004, p. 71
8
Globalization Structure of Selected Car Makers
(in Percent)
Fiat
Renault
Toyota
VW Group
GM
Daimler- Chrysler
9
Motivation for Relocation of Production Abroad
Source Lay/Kinkel/Maloca (2003) Stand und
Entwicklung der Auslandsproduktion bei
Automobilzulieferern ein Branchenvergleich.
Düsseldorf HBS, p. 18
10
Indexed (Germany 100) Yearly Wages/Salaries and
Labour Costs per Person Employed in the European
Automotive Industries 2003
Wages and Salaries Total Labour Costs
Germany 100.0 100.0
UK 75.9 69.9
France 70.2 78.3
Sweden 66.4 77.7
Spain 55.6 59.5
Italy 49.5 57.4
Hungary 20.3 22.0
Poland 18.1 17.8
Czech Republic 16.4 17.9
Slovenia 11.8 -
Slovakia 12.9 13.9
Romania 5.6 6.2
Russia 4.0
Source VDA International Auto Statistics,
edition 2004, p. 350f. 361f., own
calculations. The average per-capita figure for
wages and salaries in Germany was  45700 for
total labour costs 57200.
11
Use of Modern Organization Concepts by German
Auto Suppliers Relocating Production Abroad
Source Fraunhofer ISI, Mitteilungen aus der
Produktionsinnovationserhebung, No. 32, March
2004, p. 10
12
Innovation Roadmap Compact Class Europe
Segments

• LED head lights

• Pedestrian protection sensors

• Smart Airbags

Interior

• LED tall lights

Electro-nicsin allseg-ments

• CO2 air conditioning

• Pre-crash sensor system

• Fully variable interiors

• External network

• Head-up display

• Night vision

• Active lighting

• Object recognition

• Adaptive cruise control

• Electronic bus systems

• 42 V electric grid

• Infotainment (e.g. smart navigation system)

• Smart power distribution

• Fuel cell as auxiliary power unit

• Flat ribbon cable

• Optical bus systems

• High-pressure supercharged diesel

• Elektrical radiator and ventilation/cooling
  control

Power train
Fuel cell

• Electrohybrid propulsion

• Particle filter

• Thermal manage- ment

• Shift-by-wire

• Electromechanical valve timing gear

• CVT

• Piezo injectors

• Electric double clutch

• Starter generator

• Gasoline direct injection

• New materials (high-tensile steels, aluminium)

• Electromech. brake (brake-by-wire)
• Electromech. steering (steer-by-wire)

Chassis

• Electronic power- assisted steering

• Air suspension

• Electric parking brake

• Friction coeffic. recogn.

• Electrohydraulic brake

• Electrical overlay steering

• Product differentiation of identical compo-
  nents by software

• Tire pressure monitoring

• Active suspension

• Hydroforming
• Steel space frame

• Aluminium

Body

• Metal foam

• Adhesives technology

• Plastic add-on parts

• Sandwich structure

• Composite materials

• Colors with Lotus effect

• Color matching

• Laser welding

2002
2005
2010
2015
Source HAWK Study by McKinsey Company/PTW
(2003 20)
13
RD Costs per Car of Selected Car Makers 2003
US-Dollar
Source Goldman Sachs (2004) Germany
Automobiles - DaimlerChrysler (DCXGN.DE)
14
Employment Potential Through X-by-wire Systems
Germany (1997 to 2002 to 2015)
Source Jürgens, U. Meißner, H.-R. (2005)
Arbeiten am Auto der Zukunft. Berlin, p. 122
15
Emplyoment Perspectives in the Area of
Powertrains in Germany
Source Jürgens, U. Meißner, H.-R. (2005)
Arbeiten am Auto der Zukunft. Berlin, p. 168
16
Impact of a Change from Conventional Engines to
Fuel Cell Systems on the Supplier Industry
Source Wengel, J. Schirrmeister, E. (Hg.)
(2000) Innovationsprozess vom Verbrennungsmotor
zur Brennstoffzelle. Karlsruhe, p. 181
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Some Findings of the Project Innovation and
Employment in the Automotive IndustryProject
Results (I)

• The intensification of innovation has positive
  effects on employment and competitivity
• Diesel technology as European success story
• x-by-wire as specialty of European suppliers
• Competing technologies in various propulsion
  systems, light-weight materials etc. lead to a
  multiplication of RD activities
• We observe a technological revolution in basic
  technologies which, nevertheless, is implemented
  in an incremental way (delay/canceling of
  introduction dates long periods of phase-in and
  phase-out)
• In the mid and long term the innovation dynamics
  lead to drastic structural effects regards types
  of suppliers and division of labor OEM -
  suppliers.

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Project Results (II)

• We found only weak links between innovation
  strategies and personnel development strategies,
  between technology road-maps and consequences for
  employees.
• Cross-functional approaches (RD and production)
  to discuss consequences of innovation on
  employment and qualification requirements were
  also weakly developed.

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Die zehn größten Automobilhersteller weltweit
nach Produktionszahlen 2003 und Veränderungen
gegenüber 1997
20
Company Value by Market QualificationThe Top Ten
Auto Companies of 2004
Toyotas cash and other liquid assets at the end
of business year 2004 32,7 bln. US-Dollar
Source Börsenzeitung of 12.2.2004 Toyota Motor
Corporation, Annual Report, March 31, 2004, SEC
Forum 20