Weather Discussion

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Weather Discussion

• 2/17/15

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Amazing Hurricane Ridge
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Freezing level above 12,000 ft
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UIL 850 mb T stats
Tuesday AM 11.2C
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Winter Total Precip Near NormalTemperature Above
Normal
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Alternative period of drought and ARs Ridge land
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California Reservoirs
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Store the Water!
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Compared to 76-77
76-77 was worse in terms of precipitation But
cooler in terms of temperature.
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Why the Difference?
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Subtle shift E in 2014-15Stronger anomaly in
76-77
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No One is Talking About El Nino Anymore!
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Global Model Upgrade January 14th
Increased resolution from roughly 26 to 13 km
grid spacing
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Better?
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The Other Model UpgradeUW WRF
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Major Upgrade to WRF modeling system (Jan. 29,
0000 UTC run)

• Tested dozens of combinations of upgrades and
  parameterizations for all seasons.
• Upgrade to new version of WRF (3.5.1 to 3.6.1)
• Moved from the NOAH to NOAH MP land surface
  model. NOAH MP (multi-physics) has much more
  sophisticated treatment of surface and
  hydrological processes. Particularly helpful when
  snow is on the ground.

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NOAH MP Schematic
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RAP Initialization

• We have been initializing with the GFS model
  grids (1 or .5 degree resolution). Little
  mesoscale detail, so model would have to spin
  things up.
• Furthermore, we were using the grids from a very
  different modeling system, again resulting in
  spin-up issues.

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Old
New
Big Differences over Puget Sound Which is right?
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Seattle Sand Point Soundings
Old
New
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Inversion and fog was reported in area
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New System Starts with much better clouds
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New
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What is happening today?
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The Forecast Ridging without End But With an
Omega Twist

• GFS long-term forecast here
• Regime shift at end of the month

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The end