How to Analyze the Impact of Migration on Individuals, Households, and Geographic Areas

1
How to Analyze the Impact of Migration on
Individuals, Households, and Geographic Areas

• Jason Schachter, Statistician
• United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
• Towards better Evidence on Migration and
  Development in Eastern Europe and Central Asia,
  Capacity-building Workshop on Migration
  Statistics
• Almaty, Kazakhstan, 31 October, 2013

2
Why are migration statistics needed?

• Better understand migration processes/experiences
• Monitor the conditions of migrants
• Improve policy making and planning
• Immigration control and support, diaspora,
  remittances, etc.
• Inform public debate

3
What type of data should be collected?

• Policy-driven research questions
• Size of migrant population
• Characteristics of migrants, e.g. for specific
  groups (refugees, highly skilled workers,
  characteristics of returnees, labour force
  experiences, etc.)?
• Impact of migration on people and areas (e.g.
  remittances and their development potential)?

4
Possible Positive Impact of Emigration

• Reduction of unemployment and stress on public
  services and infrastructure in country of origin
• Increase of income and standard of living of
  out-migrants and non-migrant household members
  (via remittances)?
• Increase of trade and transnational relations
  through diaspora networks
• Return migrants bring back skills and resources
  acquired abroad

5
Possible Negative Impact

• Leaves behind an older population (outmigration
  of the young, highly educated, and economically
  active)?
• Outmigration of specific industries and
  occupations (e.g. health care), and loss of human
  capital (and wealth)?
• Depopulation, with an impact on future
  development, employment opportunities, public
  infrastructure, taxes, health care services,etc.

6
Possible Negative Impact, cont.

• Imbalanced regional development (rapid
  urbanization, depopulation in rural areas, etc.)?
• Dependency on remittances
• Impact of remittances on the value of local
  currency, and its effect on trade

7
Units of Analysis

• National/Regional/Community
• Socioeconomic and contextual data
• Household
• All household members
• Living conditions
• Housing characteristics
• Remittances
• Individual
• Migration history
• Personal characteristics (age, sex, education,
  etc.)?
• Reason for move
• Economic activity (before and after move)?
• Social networks

8
Dimensions of Analysis

• Size
• Characteristics
• Impact

9
Size

• Stock of international migrants
• Size of diaspora
• Number of in-migrants over last 12 months
• Net migration rate
• Amount of money sent to household from outside
  the country

10
Characteristics

• Demographic (e.g. age, sex, race)?
• National origin/Nativity
• Education
• Marital status
• Labour force activity/employment status/income
• Remitter/remittance recipient

11
Impact

• More difficult to measure
• The action of one object coming forcibly into
  contact with another/a marked effect or
  influence
• Can impact positively or negatively
• Data scarcer

12
Impact of Migration (some dimensions)

• Economic
• Income, poverty, economic growth, employment,
  etc.
• Education
• Investment, attainment, quality, etc.
• Demographic
• Fertility, mortality, population growth/decline,
  etc.
• Health
• Healthcare, disease prevalence, etc.
• Social/Gender
• Female migrants opportunities, gender roles,
  attitudes, family structure, cultural values, etc.

13
Can have an impact on (units of analysis)

• Individuals
• Current and return migrants
• Households/Families
• Geographic Areas (local and national)
• Environment

14
How to Measure/Analyze

• Measurement of change since migration
• Comparison of an individuals current
  characteristic and characteristic just before
  move
• At either the individual or household level
• Subjective (how was health before move/ how is
  health now)
• Objective (level of education, labour force
  status, income levels)

15
Other Examples

• Household income with and without remittances,
  changes in wages, benefits of education, etc.
• Acquisition of skills since migration experience

16
How to Measure/Analyze

• Characteristics of both migrants and non-migrants
  (compare groups)
• Comparison of migrant vs. non-migrant households?
• Household income/expenditure
• Business ownership trends/entrepreneuriship
• Ability to save

17
Health example

• Migration could potentially harm health through
  exposure to poor nutrition, living conditions,
  lack of access to social services or exposure to
  new diseases.
• Migration may provide migrants with better living
  conditions and higher incomes than those in their
  home country, improving their health, increase
  expenditure on health care, etc.

18
Analysis for Geographic Areas

• Change in
• Population growth/decline
• Aggregate characteristics (e.g. age structure,
  poverty rates, labour force composition,etc.)
• Other contextual variables
• Strain on local infrastructure
• Services, tax revenue, etc.
• Rural vs. Urban

19
Indirect Impacts of Migration

• Transfer of ideas
• Potential behaviorial changes (e.g. increase
  chance of migrating field of education language
  acquisition)
• Cultural changes
• Change attitudes towards gender roles.

20
Analysis of Differences

• Descriptive
• Measures of central tendencies (mean) and
  variation (deviation from mean)
• Inferential/Inductive
• Probability that observed differences between
  groups are real
• General Linear Model (T-Test, ANOVA, Regression
  analysis, etc.)

21
If differences between groups are found causality
issues to be aware of

• Reverse Causality
• Migration does not cause increased income, but
  increased income increases the possibility of
  migrating
• Self-Selection
• Comparisons between migrants and non-migrants are
  not valid, since migrants might be different from
  non-migrants
• Multivariate analysis and other analytical
  techniques can help control for these factors

22
Policy Needs vs. Data Availability

• Policy often needs rapid and definite answers and
  solutions
• Data not always available
• Quality research takes time and does not always
  provide definitive answers
• Policy makers should be committed to
  evidence-based policy making
• Often use results selectively
• Researchers need to be aware of policy contexts
• Need to present findings in easily accessible and
  comprehensible formats

23
Use of Indicators to measure impact at National
(and Global) Level

• What is an indicator?
• Indices, way to measure something (size)
• Output (monitoring), outcome (evaluation), goals
• Set benchmarks and targets
• Measure progress towards goals (performance)
• Monitor trends over time
• Quantitative vs. Qualitative (subjective)
• Qualitative can be used to measure change/impact
  (self-perception)
• MDGs
• Sustainable Development Goals

24
Post-2015 Development Agenda Indicators (SDGs)

• Set Targets
• Clear, consise, objectively measured
• Use easy to understand numerical scales
• Able to aggregate to represent global and
  regional trends
• Used for Monitoring Progress

25
Criteria for Indicators

• Outcome indicators focused on long-term results
• Levels and trends over time
• Measurable over time with data collected by
  countries
• Use official statistics/stay within their
  capacity
• Inform policy
• Clear and easy to communicate to public
• Limited number
• Should be within regular statistical output
• Consistency over time
• Use international standards

26
Indicators for Post-2015 Agenda?

• How can impact of migration be measured within
  these pillars?
• Social
• Environment
• Economic
• What other indicators would be useful?
• Should migration be included in SDGs?
• Data availability issues
• Lack of harmonization

27
IOM Indicators (broad categories) (2012)

• Economic and Assets
• Demography
• Education
• Health
• Gender
• Wider Social
• Governance and Rights
• Environment
• Other Transfers