TEM and TER Projects

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TEM and TER Projects Master Plan Draft Final
Report
UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE
TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT
Geneva, 8 - 10 June 2005
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Structure of the presentation

• Background
• Scope
• Terms of reference
• Elaboration
• Conclusions / Recommendation
• Whats next

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Background

• Survey and review of TEM and TER (1999 2001)
• Approval of the short-term strategy (June 2001)
• Master Plan, first priority of the work 2003
  2004
• Approval of the TOR (May 2003)
• Start of the elaboration of Master Plan (October
  2003)
• Nomination of external consultants
• - Prof. D. Tsamboulas (NTUA)
• - Prof. A. Pearman (Leeds University)
• - Mr. Z. Trcka (Czech Rep.)
• - Mr. L. Gaspar (Hungary)
• - Mr. D. Przybyla (Poland)

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Scope

• Elaboration of a strategic plan of action for
  the implementation of the TEM Project objectives
  in terms of updated and prioritized rail and
  combined transport infrastructure needs of TEM
  member countries and their immediate neighbors

• Investment priorities
• Timetable for their realization
• Assessment of cost and financing arrangements

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Terms of Reference

• Objectives
• Consistent and realistic investment strategy for
  the development of the road transport
  infrastructure in the wider TEM Region,
  supporting
• Promotion of TEM Project goals
• Extension of TEN-T
• Development of Pan-European Transport Corridors
• Promotion of intermodality
• European transport integration

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Terms of Reference (contd)

• Tasks
• Review of TEM work and European initiatives
• Socioeconomic framework - scenarios of growth
• Methodology and main assumptions
• Inventory of needs
• Elaboration of Master Plan
• Truck and coach transport problems
• Funding questions and financing arrangements
• Border crossing questions
• Conclusions / recommendations / dissemination

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TEM Master Plan invited countries
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Elaboration

• Organisation
• PCO Main responsible
• National Experts Consolidate national
  information
• Invited organizations Thematic support/guidance
• External consultants Technical/ scientific
  assistance
• TEM Master Plan Expert Group
• PCO, National Experts, Organizations,
  Consultants, UNECE
• TEM and TER Master Plan Coordination Group
• PCOs, External Consultants, UNECE

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Elaboration Initial time table
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Elaboration Milestones

• Coordinations Group Meetings
• 1st meeting, Budapest 16/9/03
• 2nd meeting, Warsaw 15/12/03
• 3rd meeting, Geneva 9/6/04
• 4th meeting, Budapest 15/11/04
• TEM Master Plan Expert Group Meetings
• 1st meeting, Bratislava, February 2004
• 2nd meeting, Budapest, September 2004
• Completion of work, March 2005
• Prepration of separate volume (to follow soon)

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Chapter 1 TEM and TER Master Plan

• - Introduction of the TEM and TER Projects and
  their Master Plan
• - The TEM and TER environment
• - General description of the report and work

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Chapter 2 Socio-economic framework and scenarios
of growth

• Two scenarios of growth have been established
• ( Moderate and Optimistic)
• The year 2000 was chosen as the base year
• Data from 1995-2000-2001-2002-2004 were used to
  establish trends
• Countries were divided in 3 groups
• - EU member countries before 01-05-2004 (Group
  I)
• - EU member countries after 01-05-2004 (Group
  II)
• - Non-EU, non-acceding countries (Group III)

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Chapter 2 Socio-economic framework and scenarios
of growth (contd)

• Transport trends Group I
• Passenger
• Annual growth transport by car ( 1.32 to 1.81)
• Annual growth transport bus/coach ( 0.03 to
  0.19)
• Annual growth transport rail ( 1.31 to 2.55)
• Modal share road-rail the same, slight decrease
  for road
• Freight
• Annual growth transport road ( 3.20 to 3.38)
• Annual growth transport rail ( 3.43 to 3.67)
• Modal share road-rail the same, slight decrease
  for road

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Chapter 2 Socio-economic framework and scenarios
of growth (contd)

• Transport trends Group II
• Passenger
• Annual growth by car ( 2.07 to 3.10)
• Annual growth bus/coach (- 0.01 to -0.28)
• Annual growth rail ( 0.75 to 1.18)
• Modal share road-rail the same, slight increase
  for road
• Freight
• Annual growth road ( 2.49 to 2.77)
• Annual growth rail ( 2.57 to 2.59)
• Modal share road-rail dramatic change (43 road
  60 Rail)

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Chapter 2 Socio-economic framework and scenarios
of growth (contd)

• Transport trends Group III
• Limited or no data existed to support forecasting
• Based only on limited data from Bosnia
  Herzegovina, Serbia Montenegro and FYROM
• Accumulated road traffic growth ( 187 to 255)
• Accumulated rail traffic growth (61 to 81)

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Chapter 3 Methodology on evaluation and
prioritization

• Four Phases
• A. Identification ( with three screening levels)
• B. Forecasting (using scenarios of growth)
• C. Evaluation (multi criteria analysis)
• D. Prioritization (in three levels)

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Chapter 3 Methodology on evaluation and
prioritization (contd)

• Phase A Identification
• Level 1 Relevance (technical standards TEM
  goals on main axis-connecting with other
  regions)
• Level2 Readiness (project well defined
  responsible agent-time plan)
• Level 3 Viability (10 mill - IRR
  Environmental aspects Justified need)

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Chapter 3 Methodology on evaluation and
prioritization (contd)

• Phase B Forecasting
• Performed on macro level, using the alternative
  scenarios of growth, and available data as
  collected from countries through questionnaires
  (Templates)

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Chapter 3 Methodology on evaluation and
prioritization (contd)

• Phase C Evaluation (multi-criteria analysis)
• (1) Definition of criteria
• - socio-economic return of investment
• - functionality and coherency of the network
• - strategic / political concerns of the network
• (2) Quantification of criteria (A5, B4, C3,
  D2, E1) 5 highest
• (3) Prioritization
• - Technical (direct application of evaluation
  providing the scores)
• - Compliance with commitments, and corrective
  actions if needed
• (4) Financial capability of country (comparison
  to 1.5 of GDP)

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Chapter 3 Methodology on evaluation and
prioritization (contd)

• Priority I projects, which may be funded and
  implemented rapidly, including on-going projects
  up to 2010.
• Priority II projects requiring some additional
  investigations for final definition before likely
  financing, or planned for implementation up to
  2015.
• Priority III projects requiring further
  investigations for final definition and
  scheduling before possible financing, or planned
  for implementation up to 2020.
• Priority IV projects to be implemented in the
  long run, including the projects where
  insufficient data existed.

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Chapter 4 Realization of the Master Plan (contd)

• Total Final Results
• In total 491 TEM and TER Projects 101 billion
• 172 TER (51.5 billion ), 319 TEM (49.5 billion
  )
• TEM category I 152 projects of value 25,3
  billion
• TEM category II 93 projects of value 23,2
  billion
• TEM category III 1 project of value 0,24 billion
  
• TEM category IV 73 projects of value 0,9 billion
  )
• TEM 36 have secured funding and to be completed
  by 2010
• TEM (13 of projects by 2015) , (10 by 2020)

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Chapter 4 Realization of the Master Plan (contd)

• Bottlenecks and Missing Links
• Analysis of what may me considered as a road
  bottleneck
• Complexity of the work not possible to be
  considered within set time frame and available
  resources for the Master Plan
• Missing links identified and proposed

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Chapter 5Master Plan Backbone Network and Links

• Major parts of the TEM Network
• EU TEN-T and High Level Group
• Pan-European Corridors, MEDA
• Euro-Asian Transport Links
• Sections on which countries proposed projects
• TIRS and REBIS studies
• Intermodal terminals/freight villages and ports
• Interconnection and continuity of networks

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Chapter 6Funding considerations Technical -
Institutional Aspects

• Since funding is not secured for 40 of projects
  focus - identification of possible sources of
  funding
• - eligibility criteria to receive funds
• - required procedures
• Main sources of funding include EIB, EBRD, World
  Bank, EU Cohesion Fund - Structural Funds -ISPA
  INTERREG
• Elements analyzed include Initial approach,
  legal framework, eligibility criteria, appraisal,
  examination, monitoring, decision making,
  contract signature, etc.
• Possibility of private participation, via PPP

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Chapter 7Border Crossing Issues

• Inventory of border crossing points was made
• Relevant GIS maps
• Identification of border crossing problems
• Recommendations for problems alleviation

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Chapter 8Conclusions / Recommendations

• General conclusions
• Master Plan elaboration has so far achieved its
  intended goals by presenting an investment
  strategy in the wider TEM and TER region, which
  supports the
• Extension of TEN-T, implementation of
  pan-European Corridors, promotion of intermodal
  transport, maximum effectiveness of transport
  infrastructure
• If implementation is ensured, will assist
• Economic growth in countries concerned, well
  being of their populations, integration harm.
  in Europe - beyond
• TEM Master Plan process has been successful, but
  the work is ongoing

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Chapter 8Conclusions / Recommendations (contd)

• Recommendations
• Missing or insufficient data should be completed
  with direct inputs of countries
• Update of the Backbone network from time to time
• Priority projects monitoring and implementation
• Close cooperation among TEM countries, between
  them and their immediate neighbours and TEM PCO
• The presentation of the shape of TEM Backbone
  Networks in 2010, 2015, and 2020 should be among
  the major tasks of TEM in future
• A review of the strategy by 2008

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Chapter 9The Way Ahead

• Implementation is a long-term process that
  requires political will and commitment from
  countries
• Implementation of standards and monitoring the
  progress in bringing TEM Backbone network up to
  the required standards could be also among future
  tasks
• To facilitate this process, countries not yet
  members to TEM Project, should seriously consider
  their full membership
• TEM Project provide an ideal framework to ensure
  the follow-up work

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UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE
TRANS-EUROPEAN NORT-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT
FOR INTEGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN EUROPE