Enrollment Projections and the Budget Process: A Technique for Smart Planning

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Enrollment Projections and the Budget Process A
Technique for Smart Planning

• SCUP-39 Annual Conference
• Toronto, Canada
• July 20, 2004

Dale Trusheim, Associate Director Office of
Institutional Research and Planning University of
Delaware Phone [phone] Fax
302-831-8530 Email trusheim_at_udel.edu
Carol Rylee, Director Budget Office University of
Delaware Phone [phone] Fax
302-831-8530 Email rylee_at_udel.edu
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Summary of Presentation

• Enrollment Projection Methods
• UD Enrollment Model
• Brief Demo of Excel Enrollment Proj Model
• IR Enrollment Model informs Budget Office Tuition
  Model
• Parameters Relevance of Tuition Model
• Brief Demo of Tuition Model
• Questions

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Enrollment Projection Methods

• Ad Hoc
• Cohort Survival
• Moving averages
• Exponential smoothing
• Time series (Box-Jenkins)
• Linear regression and auto regression
• SPSS Trends

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UD Method

• Enrollment in a given semester is simply a
  function of the behaviors of two groups of
  students

1. New Students (Inputs)
2. Continuers
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UD Method
New Students
Continuing Students

Freshmen
Total number enrolled from prior
semester minus (number of graduates number of
withdrawals)
Transfers
Readmitted
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UD Method
Historical Data
Predicted Data
FALL 2003
FALL 2002
FALL 2004
SPRING 2003
SPRING 2004
History
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UD Method

• Primary task is to develop a model to depict
  student flow and to generate a prediction for
  future enrollment . . . . . .
  MS EXCEL

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Excel Model 3 Components

• Input headcount enrollment for three groups of
  students (historical average or one-time)
• New Freshmen
• Transfers
• Readmits
• Predict headcount enrollment for
• Continuing students
• Estimate percentage of full-time and part-time
  students

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Enrollment Projection Accuracy
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EnrollmentProjection Model
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Tuition Model

• Budget Office Model uses separate Excel model to
  projection tuition income
• Request Enrollment Model 3-4 times per year
• Use numbers from enrollment model in spreadsheet
  model of tuition income

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Tuition Model Parameters

• FT/PT mix
• Resident/NonResident Mix
• Fall to Spring Attrition
• Upcharge over 17 credits
• Grad vs. Undergrad

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Uses of Model

• Forecast Full-time Undergrad
• Construct what-if scenarios in regard to
  enrollment
• Easily calculate each x or x change in tuition
• Identify source of variances of actual from
  budgeted.

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Relevance of models

• Accurate budgeting of tuition
• Dont want to underbudget campus confidence in
  numbers Is important
• Dont want to overbudget leads to shortfall in
  income at year-end
• Assessment of accuracy of model
• Can quickly identify source of variances
• Allows fine-tuning of models

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Relevance of Models

• Allows viewing of all factors related to
  enrollment and tuition income in succinct fashion
• Facilitates comparision of tuition budgets from
  year to year

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Other than Full-time Tuition

• Part-time, Graduate and Special Sessions
• Model is based on numbers of credit hours by
  residency.
• Model is used in years when major changes are
  anticipated in mix and/or credit hours
• Otherwise, use projection of prior year actual
  increased by estimated tuition increase

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TuitionProjection Model
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Questions Info

• Questions?
• Copy of Powerpoint and Excel Models are available
  at

• http//www.udel.edu/ir/reports/presentations.html