How can we predict forest change

1
Please use this presentation as a demonstration,
not as a definitive description of a particular
ecosystem.
This 45-minute presentation was prepared for an
experiment testing the effectiveness of
visualization software in presenting results of
the Forest Vegetation Simulator with Fuels and
Fire Extension (FVS-FFE). The presentation was
designed to increase public understanding and
acceptance of the use of a mathematical model for
managing late successional forests and fire. It
summarizes data and presents model runs for the
Cheesman Reservoir area in Colorado-- but only as
a demonstration of the models visualization
capability. If you are interested in definitive
data and model outputs from the Cheesman area,
please contact Merrill Kaufmann, Paula Fornwalt,
Laurie Huckaby, or Jason Stoker at the Rocky
Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO
(mkaufmann_at_fs.fed.us).
2
The notes for each slide contain 1. A brief
script comments that can be used to present the
ideas. Enter keystrokes are indicated by
_at_. 2. Suggestions for dialogue with the
audience, written in italics and set aside from
script by a series of asterisks at beginning and
end. 3. Information on how the information in
the slide was obtained or how the graphic was
prepared. This information is in square brackets
at the end of the script.
3
If possible, use introductions. Learn about the
audience before you start your presentation, and
encourage participants to listen to one another.
Try to welcome participants questions and ideas
during the presentation. If you are working with
a large group, consider asking participants to
work in small groups (perhaps with facilitation)
to answer discussion questions, especially
questions that pertain to visions of the future
and possible forest treatments. If you integrate
audience participation into your presentation,
you may be able to shorten the presentation
considerably because participants will be
learning from one another.
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Forests change.
More time more ( bigger) trees.
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1896
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Model?
Models help us understand and predict
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Mathematical model

• Use data to find patterns from the past
• Understand the present
• Predict the future

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Mathematical model?
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• How do forests change over time?
• How do fires influence forests, and forests
  influence fires?
• How do our choices influence forests and fires?

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Ponderosa pine in Colorado
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Thanks to Merrill Kaufmann, Paula Fornwalt,
Laurie Huckaby, and Jason Stoker, Rocky Mtn.
Research Station
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• How do forests change over time?
• How do fires influence forests, and forests
  influence fires?
• How can our choices influence forests and fires?

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The players
ponderosa pine
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Fire resistant buds bark at 7 years old
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and Douglas-fir
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Reproduces well even in shade
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Modeled Patches on the Landscape
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Modeled Succession
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Modeled Succession
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How do Front Range forests change over time?

• Increased crown cover
• Increased number of small trees
• Small Douglas-firs outnumber all other species
  and all other sizes.

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• How do forests change over time?
• How do fires influence forests, and forests
  influence fires?
• How can our choices influence forests and fires?

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All fires are not equal
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Modeling Cheesman Historic Fires
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Cheesman Historic Fires Again
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1899
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• Model fire behavior
• One patch of forest
• 1900 (open crown cover)
• vs. 2000 (medium to dense crown cover)

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Modeled fire spread 5 mph winds
1900
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5 mph winds again
1900
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Modeled Potential for Active Crown Fire
Surface Passive Crowning
Active Crowning
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After fire modeled view from above
1900
2000
5 mph wind
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How has succession in Front Range forests
influenced fire?

• Greater risk of active crown fire
• More smoke
• Greater likelihood of erosion

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• How do forests change over time?
• How do fires influence forests, and forests
  influence fires?
• How can our choices influence forests and fires?

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Modeled Succession
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Modeled Succession
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Modeled Potential for Active Crown Fire

Surface Passive Crowning
Active Crowning
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Choice 1 Hands off
2050
Choice 2 Thin from below, prescribed burn
2000
2050
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Modeled Treatment and Succession
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Modeled Potential for Active Crown Fire
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Choice 1 Hands off
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Ponderosa pine in Colorado
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• How do forests change over time?
• How do fires influence forests, and forests
  influence fires?
• How do our choices influence forests and fires?

74

• How do forests change over time?
• How do fires influence forests, and forests
  influence fires?
• How can our choices influence forests and fires?

75

• How do forests change over time?
• How do fires influence forests, and forests
  influence fires?
• How can our choices influence forests and fires?

76

• How do forests change over time?
• How do fires influence forests, and forests
  influence fires?
• How can our choices influence forests and fires?

77
Models
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Thank you!
Thanks for help Arapaho-Roosevelt N.F.,
Bitterroot N.F., Amy Smith, Carol Akerelrea, Cass
Cairns, Dennis Simmerman, Denver Water (photo
archives), Don Zimmerman, Duncan Lutes, Dwain
Smith, Fire Use Management Team, Jason Stoker,
Jim Menakis, Joe Scott, John Hutmacher, Joint
Fire Sciences Project, Larry Bradshaw, Laurie
Huckaby, Merrill Kaufmann, Mick Harrington, Nick
Crookston, Paul Moore, Paula Fornwalt, Rick
Fletcher, Sherry Ritter, Staff at Forest
Management Service Center, Steve Arno, Wayne Cook