FISTERA IST2003

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FISTERA - IST2003

• WORKPACKAGE 4
• IST Futures Forum
• Scenarios of IST Futures

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WORKPACKAGE 4

• Objectives
• Utilising the process of constructing scenarios
  as a way of achieving greater consensus on the
  feasibility and desirability of future visions of
  IST. Generating scenarios and underpinning
  analyses as products that can be circulated for
  further discussion and debate, and be used as
  visions to guide strategy and monitor progress.
• Activities
• Examine available scenarios.
• Establish IST-oriented subtopics for further
  analysis.
• Design structure, sequence and scripts for
  workshops and virtual scenario dialogues.
• Identify and mobilise participants.

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Why Scenarios?

• Grounded Foresight
• Scenario frameworks to structure work, ensure
  robustness of strategies, stimulate and challenge
  informants.
• Process Tools
• Scenario Workshops/dialogue to allow for exchange
  of views and visions, provoke and legitimate
  thinking out of the box, etc.
• Products
• Scenario Reports to synthesise and present
  results to integrate and check coherence of
  outputs, communicate and illustrate conclusions.
  

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Methods

• Desk work
• F2F workshops critical
• Online methods big challenge is to attract
  active users
• Need to resolve - balance between exploratory and
  normative. How far multiple scenarios
  illustrating alternatives, versus focused
  aspirational scenarios illustrating targets.

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Inputs

• Workshops and Online discussions are ideally
  facilitated with background inputs - SWOTS,
  benchmarks, starter scenarios.
• Need to avoid overwhelming participants, while
  establishing common frameworks.
• What sort of starter scenarios?

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Starter Scenarios 1 - European Performance
Aggregate European Competitiveness
A B C D
European Integration/ Convergence
European Integration/ Convergence - - - - - - -
IST areas 1, 2, 3, 4,...
Aggregate European Competitiveness - - - - - -
- - - - -
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Starter Scenarios 2 STAR Uses of new ITs
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Interpersonal media affective Ergonomics and
learning Permanent industrial structures with
large multi-player information systems in
legitimate organisations Traditional State
intervention

• AmI complex systems mastery gt HMI
• Weakening of large organisations
• Government influence on public services grows

Society the Individual Industry Government
Policy Society the Individual Industry Governme
nt Policy
Scenario 3 Scenario 4

• Withdrawal IT fails to suffice for
  interpersonal comms
• Instrumental use of IT, minor economic impact
• Little policy change

• Interpersonal media HMI progress rapid
• Different business styles, modularisatoion,
  opportunities for SMEs
• Localities empowered

Source Laurent Gille, (Ecole Nationale
Supérieure des Télécommunications Paris) STAR
project
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Back to the Future? FAST scenarios Social and
Economic innovation
Prospects for Social Innovation

Economic Growth Trends ---------------------------
-----------
-----
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Other bases for scenario development

• Rates of progress in different classes or
  applications of ISTs, or in technical capabilties
  versus effective applications or move to new
  usage paradigm (like AmI)
• GBN or IAF scenario archetypes business as
  usual, major improvements or problems, change
  paradigm
• Suggestions?
• What are most appropriate for our aims in
  community-building, visioning, providing useful
  outputs?

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Aspirational Scenarios

• Success Scenarios are
• Credible, optimistic developed as far as
  possible round expert / community consensus
• Informed by benchmarking and other inputs
• Their functions
• Stretch target
• Shared visions, improved understanding
• Better indicators of progress
• Action points

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Workshop Use
Plenaries -gt break-out groups
Workshop Process Develop analyses of drivers and
shapers, define aspirational vision, elaborate
strategies and roles, suggest indicators and
milestones, build scenario
Starter Scenarios
Other Inputs
Capture of results
From exploratory to normative scenarios.
Comments?
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Online

• Web-based support for workshops and to enlist and
  engage wider community
• Assist in preparation and critique of alternative
  scenarios, construction of roadmaps, etc.
• Challenges of enlisting regular and active
  participation community to be built, requires
  more than just electronic communication,
  requires very attractive site

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End of Presentation

• Thanks for your attention and for your feedback
  and suggestions!