Michael Rader

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First Results from FISTERA- WP 1 Review and
Analysis of National Foresight Exercise Outcomes
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• Michael Rader
• Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe
• Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung und
  Systemanalyse

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About ITAS (Work Package 1 Leader)

• ITAS is Institute in Karlsruhe Research Centre,
  large national research centre funded by central
  government (90) and Land Baden-Württemberg
  (10). FZK has over 3,000 staff
• FZK is member of Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, which
  comprises 15 institutions with 24,000 staff
• ITAS has multi-disciplinary staff of about 50

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About ITAS (II)

• ITAS main fields of work
• Sustainable development
• Efficient use of resources
• New Technologies and the Information Society
• Concepts, methods and functions of
  problem-oriented research
• ITAS also operates the German parliaments Office
  of Technology Assessment (EPTA member)

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About WP1(I)

• Goal
• production of an overview of nation-level
  foresight studies in Europe and, later,
  world-wide with special focus on IT
• Main use in other workpackages of FISTERA
• Deliverables
• 1 Synthesis of selected foresight exercises at
  the national level (First report available from
  website http//fistera.jrc.es)
• 2 Supplemented and updated synthesis of foresight
  exercises of various types (National, regional,
  industrial, with second and final report - PM 30)
  

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What Is Foresight?

• Forward-looking studies (Time horizon 10 to 30
  years), resulting in visions
• Usually with aim of providing input for
  decision-making on science and technology policy
• Aim to involve stakeholders
• Employs broad range of methods (delphi studies,
  scenario techniques etc.)

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About WP 1 (II)

• Method
• Desk research, constructing an IST sector
  specific analysis for the enlarged Europe
• Build upon existing general comparisons of
  foresight studies on EU countries (e.g. by IPTS
  and ESTO).
• Aim suggest reasons for any differences and to
  draw conclusions from these differences for the
  development of the e-society in Europe as a whole
  and in individual European countries. Strong
  focus on IST visions.
• Development of uniform approach to ensure
  compatibility of case studies.
• FISTERA is network with partners providing
  feedback, additional information

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About WP1 (3)

• First phase
• Overview of selected important national exercises
• Case studies on national exercises following a
  standardised format.
• This includes the following dimensions
• Method, timeframe, political context
• Scope and content (individual technologies and
  groups of technologies, applications, national
  IST programs)
• Findings on IST
• IT Visions, SWOT
• Impact

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First Results (I)

• First phase was on sample of eight cases, which
  represent a good mix of types of national-level
  foresight
• Countries included are Austria, Czech Republic,
  France (Technologies Clés 2005), Germany (Futur),
  Hungary, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom (second
  cycle)
• Not all studies fully-fledged foresight with
  strong participation of stakeholders
• Broad variety of aims from draft national
  research plan (CR) to strengthening ties between
  actors in ST or industrial orientation (Spain)
• All studies except Swedish on behalf of
  government

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Examples of Foresight Studies 1 Futur, Germany

• Took place 2001 to 2002, with a pilot phase
  several years earlier
• Goal is to formulate visions for programmes
  operated by research ministry (BMBF)
• Strong participatory element, with deliberate
  attempt to engage certain societal groups (young
  people, women, artists, journalists)
• selection process cascading from the very broad
  to quite narrow focus.
• time horizon 20 years,
• methods include workshops, open space
  discussions, panels, scenarios and lead visions,
  future workshops, electronic communication
  (online-voting) and road shows.
• Main outcome of Futur were four guiding visions.
  In all four guiding visions, aspects of IST are
  more or less relevant, but none of these visions
  are in a classical sense IST themes.

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Foresight Example 2 Technologies Cles 2005
(France)

• Second French Technologies Clés study 1998-1999,
  report published in 2000.
• 8 thematic panels involving about 12 experts per
  panel and 500 additional experts.
• Aim to identify critical technologies and
  benchmark positions of France and Europe in
  global competition in addition to updating
  previous exercise.
• Time horizon five years, methods included an
  Internet forum of experts in addition to the
  questionnaire survey and work in panels.
• Outcome was a list of 119 critical technologies.

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Foresight Example 3 2nd Cycle of UK Foresight
(1999-2002)

• Organised in 8 sector panels and 3 thematic
  panels with another 30 so-called associate
  programmes
• Major aim to set priorities for science and
  technology policy, but tendency to stress role
  of foresight in creating forward thinking
  culture in the UK.
• knowledge pool as novel feature (replacing
  Delphi survey)
• Public participation via websites, workshops etc.
  was stressed strongly for this cycle.
• Time horizon 15 to 20 years.

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Foresight Example 4 Sweden (1998-2000)

• Not conducted by or on behalf of government.
• Long dissemination phase with many workshops
• 8 thematic panels, involving an average of 15
  experts per panel.
• The goals were to strengthen a futures-oriented
  approach in companies and organisations, to
  identify areas of expertise with potential for
  growth and renewal in Sweden, to compile
  information and design processes for identifying
  high-priority areas in which Sweden should build
  expertise.
• Methods include scenario building and workshops,
  also technology hindsight
• Second exercise launched late in 2002.

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First Results - Problems

• Problems include
• Integration of results from different panels
• Neglect of cutting edge technology
• Avoid falling victim to Zeitgeist
• Length of time-horizon in rapidly changing
  field
• Thinking in alternatives difficult
• European dimension usually weak

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Results Findings on IST

• Trend in all foresights toward application
  orientation, i.e. technology including IST in
  societal context
• Studies underlined existing IST trends, e.g.
  mobile telephony, opportunities in the
  development of human-machine interfaces.
• Awareness of specific needs and development of
  interfaces and software to meet needs of specific
  groups more intensive in Europe than elsewhere
• Major application areas for IST usually also high
  on political agenda, e.g. health care and
  applications for the elderly, transport,
  government and governance, the environment.

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Results - other

• Cross-cutting issues also with high priority for
  political decision-makers, e.g. privacy and
  vulnerability, sustainable development, education
  etc.
• Major worries regarding loss of qualified
  experts .
• It is difficult to make statements on unfamiliar
  technology
• Need for studies of other type to pick winners
  need to try new methods for stakeholder
  participation WP2 could provide valuable basis
• Nonetheless Foresight having impacts on S T
  policy, networking benefits also stressed

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Outlook (1)

• Second phase
• Findings will be supplemented and updated over
  the course of the project as new results are
  received
• Further case studies on newly completed national
  foresight, regional foresight, industrial
  foresight
• Second report will include updates and revisions,
  deepening of analysis outlined in first report.
• Place European foresight in a global perspective
  by comparing with US, Japan and Pacific Rim
  exercises

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Outlook (2)

• Special emphasis on context, i.e. e-Society
  initatives, legal framework, taxation etc.
• Inclusion of other types of relevant studies
  regional foresight industrial foresight
  technology assessment innovation studies
• Emphasis on scenarios for the developing
  e-society, visions
• Involvement of network including members and
  other experts is essential

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Summary

• FISTERA WP has consisted of a review of 8
  national foresight studies
• Foresight employs broad range of methods
• Studies were strongly application oriented
• Major benefits related to networking among ST
  stakeholders
• Few surprising outcomes with respect to IST
• Work will continue on broadening and deepening of
  results
• Involvement of network essential element

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• Thank you for your attention!