Aviation and the environment: status and technological prospects

1
Aviation and the environmentstatus and
technological prospects

• Jos Dings

30 November 2004
2
About TE

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• Spain
• Sweden
• Switzerland
• UK

3
Economic benefits of air transport into
perspective

• Contribution to EU economy (1998) approx. 1
• Contribution to EU employment (1998) approx.
  0.2
• Contribution to global warming (2000) ca 7
  according to latest insights
• Contribution to noise nuisance
• 15-20 (Germany 2002)

4
Global Warming due to aviation in 1992 (IPCC 1999)
140

• 49 mW/m2 (3.5 of total)

120
100
80
contrails
O3-formation
60
Radiative forcing mW/m2
40
Methane reduction
20
0
Cirrus clouds
Total
CO2
-20
Including other effects water vapour directly,
soot, sulfate
5
Global Warming due to aviation in 2000 (AAC 2003)
140

• 116 mW/m2 (ca 7 of total)

120
100
80
O3-formation
60
Radiative forcing mW/m2
40
contrails
Methane reduction
20
0
Cirrus clouds
Total
CO2
-20
Including other effects water vapour directly,
soot, sulfate
6
Climate change baseline trends

• Industry 70 improvement has been achieved per
  available seat kilometre .
• yes, but compared with 1st generation jets
• Meanwhile volume growth over 1000
• 1994 B777 with GE90 engine
• Since then no substantial further improvements

7
Overview fuel reduction technology

• Engine
• bleed air elimination
• Pressure bypass ratios
• High-speed propeller ?
• Drag
• Aircraft shape
• Wingspan and wingtips
• grooves, cleaning
• Weight
• Design
• Materials composites e.g. GLARE

8
New projects

• 2006 Airbus A380
• Competes with Boeing 747-400
• 555 till even 800 seats
• Approx. 10 more fuel efficient, half the noise ?
• Wing span (80 x 80) and weight limit reductions
• Boeing 747A can compete (3.5 m, 35 pax, 7E7
  engine, decision 2005)
• 2008 Boeing 7E7 Airbus 350 ?
• Compete with A330, B757/767
• 200-260 seats
• Approx. 15 more fuel efficient ?
• Airbus A330 light (7E7 engines) can compete
• Airbus A350 not yet official

9
Boeing 7E7 Dreamliner 15 better than
competitors ?
10
Airbus A380 15 better than Boeing 747 Jumbo
Jet ?
11
Reactions to CO2 NOx charges in EU airspace

• Total CO2 emissions some 115 Mtonnes
• EUR 30/tonne CO2, EUR 3.6 per kg NOx ( approx.
  12 ct/l)
• Revenue raising
• Reduces CO2 NOx by approx. 9 10
• Demand and supply impacts equal
• Revenues EUR 5 bln (35 EU budget)
• Revenue neutral (feebate/rebate)
• Reduces CO2 NOx by approx. 5 6
• Only supply-side effects
• No revenues
• Fleet renewal !!!!

12
Two sources on supply-side (technology) responses
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Contrails and cirrus

• Warm the earth probably more than CO2
• Depend on ambient exhaust gas temperature
  humidity
• New engines cause more !
• Solution Air Traffic Management (EUROCONTROL !)
• Military aircraft can avoid them for visibility
  reasons)

14
Alternative hydrogen ?

• Makes water and NOx emissions probably worse
• Much heavier aircraft, but lighter fuel
• Hydrogen production ?
• Many believe kerosene will be one of last oil
  products

15
Local air pollution

• In particular NOx and PM
• Problem NOx Modern engines less CO2, less PM,
  less HC, but more NOx !
• Problem PM massive health issue

16
NOx reduction potential

• Main approach improved combustion chamber
  technology
• Staged combustion
• Variable airflow inlets
• More revolutionary most promising
• Lean premixed pre-vaporised LPP
• Rich burn Quick quench Lean burn (RQL)
• Reduction up to 90 claimed

17
NOx emission factors vs ICAO standards

• NOx emission factor is growing, despite
  regulation

18
Noise lost opportunities

• Chapter 4 in place in 2006
• Only 3 d(A) quieter than 1978 Chapter 3
  standards
• 2001 gt 95 already complied
• Best aircraft six times quieter than Ch.4
• Airports now hold the key

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Aircraft can be much, much quieter !!!
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Trade-offs

• Between CO2 and NOx
• High pressure ratio engines
• Between CO2 and contrails/cirrus
• Low temp. exhaust gas -gt more contrails
• Between CO2 and noise
• Steep climb more fuel
• In policy discussions
• Favourite hobby of industry
• Less serious than often thought
• correct incentives ALL impacts needed

21
The future perspective, climate

• Growth stays at 4-5/yr
• Climate BaU
• CO2 1 p.a. improvement, 3-4 growth
• Contrails/cirrus gt 5 p.a. growth ?.
• Climate technically feasible
• CO2 improvement up to 2 p.a. ?
• Contrails/cirrus avoidance largeley feazible

22
The future perspective, noise NOx

• NOx
• BaU no improvement, gt 5 p.a. growth ?
• Incentives large improvements possible
• Noise
• BaU improvement smaller than growth
• Incentives improvement feasible !
• Co-ordinated efforts by airports (noise charges,
  noise ceilings)

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www.t-e.nu

• TE is Europes primary NGO campaigning on a
  Europe wide level for an environmentally
  responsible approach to transport. info_at_t-e.nu
• Rue de la Pépinière 1 1000 Brussels
• Tel. [phone] Fax [phone]
  www.t-e.nu