Executive Abstract:

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Executive Abstract
The classical paradigms fail in predicting
emergence of novelty / development in bio/ cogni
/ socio/ econo systems
- Extension of study to other regions / subjects
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More Is DifferentSorin Solomon HUJ and ISI

• Real world is controlled
• by the exceptional, not the mean
• by the catastrophe, not the steady drip
• by the very rich, not the middle class.
• we need to free ourselves from average
  thinking.
• Philip Anderson

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ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic
Liberalization of Poland year 0
Andrzej Nowak lab
Poland Post-Liberalization Social-Economic-Politi
cal Development predictions
Multi-Agents vs Differential Equations
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ECONOMIC Clustering Development after economic
liberalization of Poland year 1
Nowak
First year Global Decay - MACS predicts Future
Growth- DE predicts continuous decay
(based on the same Logistsic parameters !)
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ECONOMIC Clustering Development after economic
liberalization of Poland year 2
But MACS sees already nuclei of growth
Yr2Globally, the situation seems getting worse
and worse
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ECONOMIC Clustering Development after economic
liberalization of Poland year 3
MACS wins over DE (for the same Logistic
parameters)
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What were the As ?
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Nowak
What were the As ?
EDUCATION (88)
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EDUCATION (88)(note complete correspondence
with growth areas AFTER but
NOT BEFORE liberalization !)
Nowak
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Economic Growth is in turn As for
Political Transformation
Nowak
Voting for Reformist Parties
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Fractal Wealth Distribution Scaling Power laws
No one however, has yet exhibited a stable social
order, ancient or modern, which has not followed
the Pareto pattern Davis Cowles Commission for
Research in Economics

Paretos curve

great generalizations

of human knowledge.

Snyder 1939
WALMART
GATES
Buffet
ALLEN
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Dell
Zipf
plot of the
wealths
of the investors in the Forbes 400 of 2003 vs.
their ranks. The corresponding model results are
shown in the in
set.
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Theorem Generically
stochastic Logistic systemsgt Pareto Laws
Experimental Confirmation Nr of Species vs
individuals size Nr of Species vs number of
specimens Nr of Species vs their life time Nr
of Languages vs number of speakers Nr of
countries vs population / size Nr of towns vs.
population Nr of product types vs. number of
units sold Nr of treatments vs number of patients
treated Nr of patients vs cost of treatment Nr of
moon craters vs their size Nr of
earthquakes vs their strenth Nr of meteorites vs
their size Nr of voids in universe vs
their size Nr of galaxies vs their size
Nr of rives vs the size of their basin
The 100 year old Pareto puzzle is solved by
combining the 100 year old logistic
Lotka-Volterra equation with the 100 year old
Boltzmann Statistical Mechanics
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Theorem Logistic Multi-Agent SystemsgtIntermitent
economic Fluctuations
(Levy / fat tails)
Infinite Competition Range
Globalization (efficient but
unstable fluctuations)
Intermediate Range
Zero RangeLocal Consumption Economy
(inefficient but very stable (if population is
stable))
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Distributionof individual wealth
(by MACS Prediction)
Distribution of market fluctuations
Levy
Social equity is good for the financial stability!
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fractal space distribution
Prediction of campaign success (15/17)
Goldenberg
Air-view of sub-urban neighborhood crosses
indicate air-conditioner purchase
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Desertification/ Reclaim localized patterns
LaveeSarah
Mediterranean uniform
Semi-arid patchy
Desertuniform
500mm
200mm
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Future and on-going studies
Romania
Piemonte
Piemonte
Belarus
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Conclusions

• The connections between a few ubiquitous
  complexity features
• Pareto-Zipf scaling laws / Levy-stable
  fat-tail fluctuations, Fractal-Intermittent
  singular spatio-temporal Growth patterns,
  Logistic Malthus-Verhulst-Lotka-Volterra-Eigen-Sch
  uster system Percolation, phase transitions,
  Emergence of adaptive objects
• can be explained within a comprehensive
  coherent interdisciplinary research framework.
• Its applicability in monitoring and inducing
  novelty emergence, social change, stable economic
  growth and sustainable development was
  demonstrated.