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KBC Bank

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Some methodological changes took place in the calculation of the tied surplus, life' ... Expenses increase with expected wage inflation at 2-3% per annum ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: KBC Bank


1
KBC GroupLife businessEmbedded value as at 31
Dec. 2004 and analysis of change and sensitivity
Foto gebouw
Disclosure date 16 June 2005
2
Cautionary Statements
  • Embedded Value is the result of cash-flow
    projections with underlying assumptions and
    expectations. The values in this presentation are
    calculated on a deterministic basis.
  • Many assumptions such as general economic
    conditions, performance of financial markets,
    taxes, changes in laws, frequency and severity of
    insured loss events, mortality and morbidity
    levels and trends, and others, are beyond KBCs
    control. A modification of an assumption can
    result in a significantly different Embedded
    Value. Deviations from assumed experience are
    normal and are to be expected. Even without any
    change in the parameters, actual results will
    vary from those projected due to normal random
    fluctuations.
  • Embedded Value cannot be considered as an
    absolute value. This value together with a
    sensitivity analysis allows the recipient to
    obtain an idea of the magnitude of the expected
    value created by their insurance activities.
  • Under no circumstances should the inclusion
    of the projections (including the relevant
    underlying assumptions and expectations) be
    regarded as a representation, warranty or
    prediction that the business will achieve or is
    likely to achieve any particular results.

3
Content
  • Life insurance activity scope
  • Terminology
  • ANAV (Adjusted Net Asset Value)
  • Components
  • Roll forward 2003-2004
  • VBI (Value of Business In Force)
  • Components
  • Assumptions
  • Sensitivities
  • Roll forward 2003-2004
  • VNB (Value of New Business)

4
Life business, overview
Growth in Life premium income 1998-2004 (in 000
EUR)
3 609 717 329
2 547 557 232
2 230 521 203
1 666 842 152
1 867 037 170
1 341 980 122
1 079 465 100
Minor changes to published figures in order to
improve model accuracy
5
Life business, overview
Growth in Technical Provisions, Life 1998-2004
(in 000 EUR)
13 494 338309
10 614 953243
8 697 296199
7 589 874174
6 783 772155
5 662 602129
4 373 520100
Minor changes to published figures in order to
improve model accuracy
6
Terminology
KBC standard
Embedded Value
Embedded Value
Embedded Value
As investment for
VBI(PVFP- CostTied Surplus)
Value In Force (VIF)
PVFP
ANAV
ANAV
TiedSurplusLife
TiedSurplusLife
PV TiedSurplus Life
Shareholders Equity
or
Other Allocated Surplus
Other Allocated Surplus
Other Allocated Surplus

Economic
Adjustments
FreeSurplus
FreeSurplus
FreeSurplus
gt Equity adjustmentsgt Asset adjustments gt
Resilience Reserves gt Tax assets and liab.
Other Allocated Surplus Tied Surplus Non
Life Other Tied Surplus
PVFP Present Value of Future Profit VBI
Value of Business In Force
7
Scope of current VBI figures
  • Scope of review
  • KBC Insurance Belgium Fidea Vitis Life
    total technical provisions 12 845 960 (000
    euros)
  • Modelled
  • 88 of the mathematical reserves
  • 96.8 of the total premium income in 2004
  • 99.8 of the new premium income in 2004
  • Group entities out of scope
  • CEE subsidiaries (CSOB CR, CSOB SR, KH Life,
    Warta Vita) and Secura total technical
    provisions 648 378 (000 euros)

8
Embedded Value overview
(in 000 EUR)
Some methodological changes took place in the
calculation of the tied surplus, life
9
Adjusted Net Asset Value
  • Adjusted Net Asset Value (ANAV)
  • Shareholders Equity
  • Equity Adjustments
  • Minority interests
  • /- Asset Adjustments
  • Unrealized capital gains on the investments,
    except for bond investments in the life
    portfolio (buy-and-hold philosophy)
  • Goodwill is deducted
  • Additional Reserves
  • Catastrophe and equalization reserves
  • Additional reserves, life
  • - Tax assets and liabilities on the above

10
ANAV as at 31/12/2004
(in 000 EUR)
11
ANAV Chg 31/12/2003 31/12/2004
(in 000 EUR)
12
Value of Business in Force (VBI) non-economic
assumptions
  • Expenses
  • Expenses are allocated to the different products
    and activities in such a way that the total
    expenses in the study equals the total expenses
    in the statutory accounts
  • Expenses increase with expected wage inflation at
    2-3 per annum
  • Future expense reduction programmes and synergies
    are not taken into account
  • Mortality
  • Assumptions based on most recent industry
    experience were used
  • Lapses
  • Assumptions based on annual experience,
    investigations of surrenders and paid-ups, with a
    reasonable safety margin
  • Assumptions are set by product and distribution
    channel

13
VBI, RBC requirements
14
VBI, economic assumptions
  • Based on the bond yield in the long run
  • Weighted Average Cost of Capital, taking into
    account partial funding via subordinated loans

15
VBI, overview
(000 EUR, only reserves of modelled business)
16
VBI, sensitivity analysis
Effect on VBI
The discount rate is changed consistently with
the change in investment return. No
profit-sharing was allocated to the 4.75
guarantees in the policies.
17
VBI, sensitivity analysis (2)
  • Changing the solvency margin

(000 EUR)
18
VBI, Chg 31/12/2003 31/12/2004
(EUR)
19
Value of New Business (VNB)
New business, 2004 at date of sale
(000 EUR)
Annualized Premium Equivalent (APE) is a
measure of new business volume equal to 100 of
regular premium on new contracts and 10 of
single premiums
20
Review
  • Lane Clark Peacock Belgium reviewed the
    methodology and assumptions used by KBC Insurance
    in the determination of the Embedded Value at
    31/12/2004, the Value of 2004 New Business and
    the analysis of the change in the value of
    in-force business for the Life Insurance
    activities of KBC Insurance.
  • It is the view of Lane Clark Peacock Belgium,
    based on the data made available, that the
    assumptions used are reasonable and that the
    methodology used by KBC Insurance is in line with
    basic principles described in appropriate
    literature.
  • Our assignment included a review of the
    calculations.This review was not a detailed
    verification of the correctness of all
    calculations. This review was a limited
    high-level reasonableness check on the results
    and included a detailed review on a limited
    random sample of contracts of the insurance
    portfolio of KBC Insurance. No material issues
    have been discovered.
  • Therefore, based on our work and our validation
    report on the work carried out by KBC Insurance,
    we consider the embedded value, the value of new
    business and the analysis of the change in the
    value of in-force for the life business to be
    reasonable and suitable for inclusion as
    supplementary information to the Groups
    consolidated accounts.

21
Contact information
  • Investor Relations Office Luc CoolNele
    KindtMarina KanamoriTel. 32 2 429 49 16
    E-mail investor.relations_at_kbc.com
  • Visit www.kbc.com for the latest update.
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