Title: KBC Bank
1KBC Bank Insurance Group
- Investor presentation Yearend 2004
www.kbc.com
2Contact information
- Visit www.kbc.com
- Investor Relations Office Luc Cool Nele
Kindt Marina Kanamori Tel. 32 2 429 49 16
E-mail investor.relations_at_kbc.com
Ticker codes KBC BB (Bloomberg) KBKBT BR
(Reuters) BKB (Datastream)ISIN code
BE0003565737
3Disclaimer
- THIS PRESENTATION IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO
SELL OR THE SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY ANY
SECURITY. - ALTHOUGH THE STATEMENTS OF FACT IN THIS
PRESENTATION HAVE BEEN OBTAINED FROM AND ARE
BASED UPON SOURCES THAT KBC BELIEVES TO BE
RELIABLE, KBC DO NOT GUARANTEE THEIR ACCURACY,
AND ANY SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE CONDENSED OR
INCOMPLETE. - THIS PRESENTATION CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING
STATEMENTS WITH RESPECT TO OUR STRATEGIES AND
EARNINGS DEVELOPMENT BY THEIR NATURE, THESE
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMNTS INVOLVE NUMEROUS
ASSUMPTIONS, UNCERTAINTIES AND OPPORTUNITIES. THE
RISK EXISTS THAT THESE STATEMENTS MAY NOT BE
FULFILLED AND THAT FUTURE RESULTS DIFFER
MATERIALLY. - BY RECEIVING THIS PRESENTATION EACH INVESTOR IS
DEEMED TO REPRESENT THAT IT IS A SOPHISTICATED
INVESTOR AND POSSESSES SUFFICIENT INVESTMENT
EXPERTISE TO UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED.
4Table of contents
- Company profile
- Developments in Belgium
- Developments in CEE
5Foto gebouw
1
Company profile
6Top-20 player in Euroland banking ()
Nov 2004
Dec 2002
Dec 2003
1 BNP Paribas (35 bn) 1 BNP Paribas (45 bn) 1 BSCH (57 bn)
2 BSCH (31 bn) 2 BSCH (45 bn) 2 BNP Paribas (48 bn)
3 BBVA (29 bn) 3 Deutsche Bank (38 bn) 3 BBVA (42 bn)
4 Deutsche Bank (26 bn) 4 BBVA (35 bn) 4 Deutsche Bank (35 bn)
5 ABN AMRO (25 bn) 5 Société Gén. (31 bn) 5 Crédit Agricole (35 bn)
6 Société Gén. (24 bn) 6 ABN AMRO (30 bn) 6 Société Gén. (34 bn)
7 Unicredit (24 bn) 7 Crédit Agricole (28 bn) 7 ABN AMRO (32 bn)
8 Fortis (22 bn) 8 Unicredit (27 bn) 8 Unicredit (27 bn)
9 Crédit Agricole (14 bn) 9 Fortis (21 bn) 9 Fortis (26 bn)
10 Dexia (14 bn) 10 Intesa BCI (18 bn) 10 Intesa BCI (21 bn)
11 Intesa BCI (12 bn) 11 Dexia (16 bn) 11 Dexia (18 bn)
12 Allied Irish Banks (12 bn) 12 San Paolo IMI (15 bn) 12 KBC (18 bn)
13 Bank of Ireland (10 bn) 13 KBC (11 bn) 13 San Paolo IMI (15 bn)
14 KBC (9 bn) 14 Bco Popular (11 bn) 14 Allied Irish Banks (12 bn)
15 San Paolo IMI (9 bn) 15 Allied Irish Banks (11 bn) 15 HVB (12 bn)
16 Banco Popular (8 bn) 16 Bank of Ireland (11 bn) 16 Bank of Ireland (11 bn)
17 HVB (7 bn) 17 HVB (10 bn) 17 Bco Popular (10 bn)
18 Mediobanca (6 bn) 18 Commerzbank (9 bn) 18 Commerzbank (9 bn)
19 Bca MPS (6 bn) 19 Mediobanca (7 bn) 19 BA-CA (9 bn)
20 Bco Popular (5 bn) 20 Bca MPS (6 bn) 20 Mediobanca (9 bn)
() DJ Euro Stoxx Banks Constituents - Ranking
by Market Capitalization Situation as at 16 Nov
2004
7Prominent player in 2 core markets
Breakdown of revenue (9M 04)
Treasury other 9
Belgium 48
Financial markets 11
International corporate 7
CEE25
- KBC is a top financial player in Belgium and has
succesfully expanded its operations in the 5 most
advanced countries in CEE (new EU members) - Besides these core markets, KBC is active in
selected other areas international
mid-corporate banking (mostly in W. Eur.) and
financial markets - As investments in CEE have continued to increase,
the other activities have been progressively
scaled down
8Top-3 player in Belgium
Market share (1)
- Consolidated banking landscape (80-90 of market
held by Top-4) - Market highly receptive to cross-selling of AM
insurance products - KBC is particularly strong in the Northern region
(one of the wealthiest regions in Europe)
(1) Figures for 2003. Sources FEBELFIN, KBC
Asset Management, Uw Vermogen (Flemish investment
journal)
9Top-3 player in the CEE region
International banks in CEE (by total assets, bn
EUR)
Source RZB assets as at 31 Dec 03,
ownership structure as at 30 Jun 04
- KBC is one of the largest international players
in the region - In contrast to other players, KBC limits its
presence to new EU Member States (the Czech and
Slovak Republics, Hungary, Poland and
Slovenia)and is active in both the banking and
insurance fields
10Top-3 position in the CEE region
Banking
Insurance
Czech RepublicMarket share 18 (No.
1)Inhabitants 10 mTotal assets18 bn EUR
Czech RepublicLife M share 7 (No. 4)Non-life
M share 4 (No. 6)
SlovakiaMarket share 6 (No. 4)Inhabitants 5
mTotal assets 2 bn EUR
SlovakiaLife M share 4 (No. 8)Non-life M
share 1 (No. 6)
HungaryMarket share 11 (No. 2)Inhabitants
10 mTotal assets 6 bn EUR
HungaryLife M share 2 (No. 13)Non-life M
share 4 (No. 6)
PolandMarket share 5 (No. 8)Inhabitants 38
mTotal assets 5 bn EUR
PolandLife M share 4 (No. 5)Non-life M
share 13 (No. 2)
SloveniaMinority interest (34)Inhabitants 2
mMarket share 42 (No. 1)
SloveniaLife M share 4 (No. 5)
- KBC invested 3.6 bn to acquire a prominent
banking and insurance position in a growth market
of 65 m inhabitants - In Poland, KBC is looking for external growth in
banking (lack of scale)
11Foto gebouw
2
Developments in Belgium
12Do not underestimate the market
Nominal GDP growth
Savings rate
KBC estimates, 2005
EU forecast report Spring 04, of GDP, 2003
- Belgian GDP outgrowing European average
(slightly) in 2004-05 - Savings ratio amongst the highest in the world
(every year, ca. 15 of disposable income flows
into financial assets) - Belgiums high savings rate a key driver for
sustained growth of the financial industry
13KBC is well positioned
Life insurance, written premiums
Retail AUM
1998 100total market (LH)vs. KBC (RH)
1998 100total market (LH)vs. KBC (RH)
CAGR KBC 18
CAGR KBC 10
- AM and Life insurance markets growing at ca.
8-10 per year - KBC outgrowing the market on the back of its
favourable position - Especially strong in the (wealthy) Northern
region - Innovative product offering in retail AM (as a
result, steadily increasing market share over
the past 10 yrs. ) - A differentiating bancassurance distribution
model (on the back of which life reserves grew
gt20 p.a. over the last 3 yrs.)
14Do not underestimate the market
Mortgage loan growth
Mortgage debt / GDP per capita
Total market
CAGR 9
Source ECB
Source NBB
- Mortgages growing at 8-10 per year, driven by
housing inflation (loan-to-value for new loans
is typically 75) - Real estate prices still below other European
markets, ensuring a) sustained mortgage growth
and b) acceptable risk position - More modest corporate loan growth, in line with
nominal GDP growth trend (expected at 4.2 in
2005)
15Margin development
Spreads on new mortgages
Spreads on new small business loans
KBC
KBC
- Loan spreads increased substantialy (doubled),
following consolidationon market at the end of
the 90s - Recently, renewed margin pressure on both the
credit and deposit sides, since large players
are eager to defend their market share - KBCs net-interest margin in Belgium currently at
1.97 (2.04 in 03)
16Do not underestimate the market
Core banking service fee rates
World retail banking report (EFMA) EUR, 2003
- Fee rates still cheap, allowing for further
(gradual) repricing - Greatest hindrance to repricing (probably) not
from market competition, but from public opinion
17Solid credit quality
Non-secured retail loans / total loans
Loan loss charges, KBC
Source central banks
, 2003
KBC (net provisions to gross loans)
- Markets savings culture implies low demand for
unsecured consumer lending - Commercial loan exposure well-diversified,
spanning a large number of SMEs (limited number
of very large corporates) - Credit quality proven to be solid, with low loan
loss charges over the cycle
18Further cost reduction potential
Cost/income, total market
Cost/income, KBC Belgium
, 2003
Retail banking(incl. AM)
Banking
- 16 pp
- KBC committed to bring cost/income further down
by - Reducing product and business-process complexity
(360 projects) - Co-sourcing of back offices with other
(international) banks, e.g. - Orbay project with Rabobank (securities
processing) unit cost to be reduced by 2/3,
generating 15-20 m recurring cost savings - Fin-Force project (cross-border payments)
- Similar areas
19Foto gebouw
3
Developments in CEE
20Above-average GDP growth
2005e
Real GDP growth inflation - KBC estimates
8.7
7.3
7.6
6.5
- Nominal GDP growth in 2005 expected at ca. 7 in
the region, outgrowing EU level by ca. 3.5 - GDP expected to outgrow European averages for a
long time(similar to previous EU entrants)
21Increasing product penetration
1997
2003
Deposits as of GDP (EMU avg 100)
Deposits as of GDP (EMU avg 100)
- Current level of financial intermediation and
product penetration still low (e.g., 45 of the
population in our markets have a bank account,
30 a savings account and 5 a mortgage loan) - Levels steadily catching up with that of the EU
- Size of retail financial sector could multiply
five-fold in 10 yrs. time,if financial assests
to GDP were to reach current levels of S. Europe
22Strong momentum in retail business
Mortgage loan growth
Mutual fund growth
FEFSI
Total market, 2003
Total market CEE-3, in m EUR
NBP, NMB, CNB
CAGR 48
- Retail business growing at double-digit pace
(albeit starting from a low basis), on the back
of a) increasing disposable income and b)
underpenetration of financial products - This explains KBCs (and other FIs) key focus on
the retail market - Corporate market more mature, including corporate
loan growth, which is more in line with (higher)
GDP growth trend
23Margin levels have been normalizing
Mortgage loan spreads
NMB, NBP, CNB
Total market
N/a
N/a
N/a
- Due to increased competition, margin pressure has
already come through to a large extent - KBCs net-interest margin currently at 2.7 in
CR/SR (vs. 2.5 in 03), 3.8 in Hungary (vs.
4.0) and 4.6 in Poland (vs. 4.9) - As rates continue to converge towards euro
levels, somewhat more margin compression
expected to be offset by volume growth and fees
24Cost-reduction potential
Cost/income ratio
KBC
- C/I levels significantly down in the the last 2
yrs. (except in Poland) - Still existing efficiency gap vis-Ã -vis local
market average, in the process of being closed - In Poland, resolution to structural issue (lack
of scale) may be critical
25Expanded horizons in CEE paying off
Banking results 9M04
In m EUR Stand-alonenet profit Contribution to Group Contribution y-o-y Return onallocated capital Return on invested capital
CR/SLK (o/w SLK) 16313 124 7 17 12
Hungary 65 25 5 19 16
Poland 32 25 - 11 6
Slovenia 65 22 - - 7
Contribution to Group profit excl. minority
interests and return on excess capital incl.
allocated Group overhead.
- Ytd figures clearly illustrating internal return
target of 17 is achievable (except in Poland) - Since we are closing the efficiency gap, higher
return in these market levels seems to be within
reach (assuming stable cost of risk) - In Poland, returns can be further increased, but
structural issue (scale) may be critical for
creating value above cost of capital
26Update on restructuring efforts in Poland
Key achievements
- Risk issue adequately dealt with in 2003
- Historic loan book cleaned-up (one of the
highest provision coverage rates on the market
and ytd 04 provisions below market avg.) - Risk management procedures upgraded and
distressed asset portfolio closely monitored - Cost basis significantly reduced
- Centralization of back offices, outsourcing of
non-core functions and divestiture of non-core
assets (Ukraine, Lithuania, etc.) - Headcount reduced by 1 300 FTEs (-19)
- Renewed focus on business development as of 2H04
- Including intensive transfer of KBC know-how
- Acceleration in bancassurance and AM sales
- Risk
Clearprofitability turnaround
- Costs
Volumes
27KBC Bank Insurance Group
Foto gebouw
www.kbc.com