Title: Requirements in the field of land use, agriculture and forestry in the context of the EU Strategy fo
1Requirements in the field of land use,
agriculture and forestry in the context of the EU
Strategy for sustainable development
- Pierre Valette, European Commission
- Daniel Deybe, National Detached Expert
2The notion of sustainable development
- To meet the needs of the present generation
without compromising those of future generations
3(No Transcript)
4Physical
Sustainability
Economic
Social
5- To evaluate sustainability, it is necessary to
evaluate the impacts on the three main
components - environment
- social
- economic
6- There are no thresholds for any of them.
- But if it is possible to evaluate the impact on
each of them, policy makers could consider the
differentiated impact and decide according to
their own goals, knowing the positive and
negative effects. - This justifies the Sustainable Impact Assessment
of any major EU policy.
7What is expected from agriculture ?
- An agriculture that is competitive
- Production methods that are environmentally
friendly and able to supply quality products - Agricultural diversity, product variety and the
provision of public goods linked to rural
development and notable, the preservation and
enhancement of the rural landscape. - Simplicity in agricultural policy and shared
responsibility for its implementation
(subsidiarity) - Justification of support through the provision of
public services by farmers
8- Agenda 2000 introduced payments to farmers to use
their privately owned resources or production
factors for activities that go beyond good
farming practices. - The Göteborg Council endorsed the Commissions
pledge to carry out a Sustainable Impact
Assessment for major policy initiatives and
legal proposals.
9Specific requirements concerning the CAP
- Shifting resources from market support to rural
development, improving agri-environment measures
(transparency), assessing the coherence of zoning
and increasing funds for rural development.
10Conflicts and synergies with Ecology
- In some cases, environmentalist would prefer that
strong support (and even priority) should be
given to policies that minimize the negative
impacts on the environment. This would imply that
the other axis (economy and social impacts) are
neglected. - In some cases, this might be irrealistic.
11- But in some cases, several functions might
contribute to environmental, economic and social
goals
12Alternative environmentally concerned practices
- One way to deal with this problem is to identify
and use environmentally concerned or
environmentally neutral practices. - In this case, the environmental impact could be
low or nihil. - But, are they economic or socially acceptable?
- Is there any way to introduce them?
13Role of landscape
- Landscape is a consequence of the natural
endowment as well as of the human intervention.
Several changes can take place infrastructure,
industrial settings, agriculture, urban
settlements, etc. - Agriculture is one of the key issues, because it
occupies an important portion of the space, but
it is not the only one.
14- Policies can influence the type of agriculture
and therefore the landscape. - But landscape is also an amenity. It can
contribute to human welfare and thus provide a
positive externality (an extra function). - Can a value be provided to this amenity?
15Land use
- Besides, as mentioned before, agriculture
competes for land use. On one hand there is the
incorporation of natural land into agriculture
(and agro-forestry and forestry) and vice-versa.
On the other hand, the trade-off with other land
uses might not allow to obtain a sustainable
balance. - Agriculture can contribute to the functions of
Land use, but Land use functions will drive
agriculture.
16- How to evaluate alternative land-uses, how to
promote them (eventually)?
17Employment
- In some cases and regions, agriculture is the
main source of labor occupation, both family and
employment. - It also contributes to stabilize population on
the country side. - It helps avoiding overpopulation in some urban
sites.
18- How can the benefits of the stabilization of the
rural population be counted when undertaking SIA
? - Are the available/proposed services sufficient
enough to entertain the rural population and the
level of employment? This can also be linked with
land use issues.
19Income generation
- Agriculture can contribute to great extent in
some cases to (direct and indirect) local and
regional income generation and therefore have an
impact on the level of development. - Is this latter impact measurable in SIA? What is
its role at the micro and macro-economic level?
20Carbon cycle
- Agriculture and forestry can contribute to
capture greenhouse gases through the use of its
sinking capacity (there are mainly two sources of
sinks soil carbon and forestry) or to mitigate
GHG through technological change or by replacing
fossil fuels by bio-fuels
21- In the case of the sinks, an economic
compensation can be estimated according to the
amount of C captured and the final use of the
consequent C stock. - Emission trading could also be applied to GHG
emitting activities, but it will be extremely
difficult to implement.
22- Bio-fuels should be considered in the economic
valuation both as a source of energy and as a
replacement for uses of non-renewable C sources
23Other outcomes of agriculture
- Any other outcome of the agricultural sector,
like providing for food security, social
cohesion, should be taking into account in the
SIA.
24Multifunctional aspects
- All these aspects can be summarized in what could
be named as the multifunctional aspects of the
sector.
25Contribution of the forestry sector
- Forestry can contribute in at least two ways
- as a source of diversification/income
generation/employment/land use - as a C sink
26Multifunctional forest
- But is also provides other functions
- hunting, fire wood, tourism, landscape, etc.
- How can these other functions be considered?
27Economic and social sustainable wood chains
Actors industries, public authorities, civil
society, international (trade, conventions,
partnership) Regulation (local, regional, EU,
World)
Society markets
Solid wood chain Fiber chain Bio energy chain Bio
composites chain
Forest, Forestry
Multifunctionalities rural development,
environment, sinks, landscape, bio-diversity
Forestry Wood Chain
28From micro to macro-economic impacts
- It is very important to evaluate the
micro-economic impacts, in particular the
structural effects of the different policies at
the farm level. It can provide useful insights
for policy makers and help in the decision
making.
29- However, the evaluation of the macro-economic
impacts is also required. In the process of
policy making, several options can be
contemplated and comparing the macro-economic
impacts could provide arguments for the selection
or rejection of a given one. - Also, the spill-over effects to other sectors
should be considered
30Relationship with externalities
- The externalities are the indirect or unexpected
effects of policies. They can be negative or
positive.
31Impact pathway analysis
Source
Dissemination
Response
Doses-Responses
Dose
Monetary evaluation
32- In particular, externalities happen on the
environment and on health. But an integrated
approach can be able to point them out in other
sectors, quantify them (when possible) and
eventually avoid them.
33RES vs coal electricity production cost
including external costs (cents/kWh)
Cost
Coal w/ext
Wind w/ext
Wind
Coal
time
34Can sustainability goals be established?
- This is part of the political process.
Stakeholders participation, discussion and
compromise are useful processes to identify
sustainability goals from a societal perspective. - In some case, some room for manoeuvre might have
to be left open when the future impacts have not
yet been identified (precautionary principle)
35Indicators and thresholds
- A possible way to proceed is to identify main
sustainability indicators that can help in the
process of monitoring whether the goals are being
achieved (or not). - For these indicators, thresholds can be
identified and fixed (from the environmental,
economic and social perspective) which point out
the limits that can/should not be exceeded.
36Is it possible to account realistically for
policy impacts?
- An integrated framework that takes into account,
modularly, the different sectors, combining
bottom-up and top-down approaches, should be able
to provide insights on possible impacts of
policies. - The combination of approaches (micro and macro)
should be able to take into consideration the
many levels (local, regional, global) concerned
by the policies.
37From cost-efficiency to cost-benefit to
integrated analysis
- There is a need to evaluate the (direct)
efficiency according to the fixed targets and the
associated private costs of any policy in the
decision making. In this case, the possibility of
succeeding efficiently in attaining the goals is
evaluated and quantified.
38- More difficult is to estimate the cost-benefit of
any policy. In this case, all benefits (direct
and indirect) of a policy have to be considered
in the economic analysis. The outcome in this
case is an internal rate of return of the policy.
Usually, it is not always possible to evaluate
the economic values of the indirect benefits (and
cost), so usually they are only mentioned for
information purposes.
39- An integrated framework, in which the
relationships between the different sectors and
stakeholders are been explicitly considered and
stated might help overcoming part of the
inconveniences and provide useful insights (even
if not completely accurate) of the impacts of
policies and contribute to the SIA.
40Some examples of how policies might not achieve
their goals and how integrated approaches can
detect the unexpected outcomes and help avoiding
them
41Case study 1
- In Africa, it is said that animals overgrazing
enhance the erosion processes. - It is tested for a village what could happen if
the number of animals pasturing could be limited.
421000 FCFA
Tn érodées
Strong impact on the village revenue Strong
impact on erosion with a limited constrain,
further constrain will not have any more impact
43Impact on the revenue
Better endowed
Less endowed
Less endowed farmers might face a strong impact
on their revenue
44Example 2
- In a certain region of south America, rotation
are excluding fallow periods. - What will happen if a subsidy is granted for
fallowing?
45Impact of a compensation paid to extensify
production
100 ha
Tn érodées
The subsidy is used to increase livestock size
46Sustainability Impact Assessment(Methodology 1)
- ? Sustainability issues ? protection and
renewal of stocks of resources ? efficiency
with which resources are used ? equity between
generations? Measuring impacts ?
quantitative, qualitative and in money terms
when reliable estimates are possible ? costs
and benefits expressed in real terms
taking into account discounting
47 SIA Methodology
(2)Economic impacts macro- and micro-economic
impacts, notably in terms of economic growth and
competitiveness, innovation and technological
development, investment, market shares and trade
patterns, increases or decreases in consumer
prices.Social impacts human capital,
employment levels, ethic, gender equality, social
exclusion and poverty, acceptability, health,
safety, consumer rights, social capital,
security.Environmental impacts changing
status of climate change, air, water, soil
pollution, land-use, bio-diversity, changes in
public health.
48 SIA Methodology (3)?
Tools for cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit
analysis multicriteria analysis, scenario
building, indicators building.? Treatment
of risk and uncertainty in order to apply
precautionary principle? ?
macro-econometric and general equilibrium
models ? sectoral models energy, transport,
agriculture and forests ? Impact Pathway
analysis for damage valuation ?
multi-agent models ? participatory approaches,
learning methods
49Methodological challenges for SIA
- ? Some tools (models, accounting frameworks for
externalities, techno-economic databases) exist,
but they are not dedicated to the SIA needs (and
not sufficiently developed). - ? Environment
- - damages of a technology or human activity on
environment and health - ? physical damages (Environment programme)
- ? monetary valuation (EXTERNE or GREENSENSE)
- - thresholds of sustainability issue a mix of
natural science, economic and social aspects
mainly sites level transferability issue for
macro assessment - - treatment of uncertainty for global issues
(climate change)
50- ? Economy
- - private costs of measures (incl.
technologies) - - social cost (social cost private
external costs) of measures - - cost-effectiveness analysis means optimisation
against an objective ? modelling framework - - cost-benefit analysis ? includes external cost
- - micro-economic and macro-economic impacts ?
different types of models - - regional, national, global modelling with
linkages for competitiveness and trade analysis - - ex-ante impacts analysis of mix of economic
instruments (e.g. emission trading emissions
ceilings)
51- ? Society
- - distinction between social, legal and
institutional aspects is necessary - - social aspects are not explicitly taken into
account in the traditional economic tools - - understanding and expectations of behaviours
- - multi-agents models could help to represent
the functioning of a social system - - participatory approach and governance issue
must be addressed - - issue of transferability of results
- ? Trade-offs
- - difficult and political process at the final
stage - - monetary valuation should help, but not
application to societal issue
52Integration of sustainability in the land use
modeling
- In the land use models it is possible to
consider - available resources
- different actors
- different regions
- it is also possible to account for
- environmental indicators
53- The last option can be used to measure and
compare the impacts on environmental
sustainability. - Considering different stakeholders might help
identifying structural and social impacts - As these models also considers profitability,
they can help measuring the economic impacts
54- Some of the accounting indicators can be
transformed in constrains to represent thresholds
or targets - This allows to identify the economic cost or
the welfare impact, according to the objective
function defined and using the dual values, for
evaluation and comparison purposes.
55Type of uses of the integrated framework
- Main types of analysis
- simulation
- econometric
- approximations until the equilibrium
- optimization
- general equilibrium
- foresight
- Scenario based
- Baseline
56Econometric
- Extrapolation of past trends through the use of
response elasticities - Very useful for short term analysis
- ex. Capri model
57Aproximation
- Trial and error mechanisms for each sector
sequentially, until the equilibrium is reached,
which is not the global equilibrium - very pragmatic, gathering detail information on
the different components - ex. Poles-gecs, Agripol
58Optimisation
- Behaviour is the basis for model solving
- The solution is optimal, but might not be
realistic - ex Mata
59General equilibrium
- All the sectors and all the reactions are
considered simultaneously - very aggregated and static
- ex. GTAP, GEM-E3, Nemesis
60Scenario based
- Different large consistent sets of assumptions
affecting science, technical schedules,
environement, economy and social factors are
compared in quantitative and qualitative terms. - difficult to estimate the differential impacts of
some of the measures
61Baseline based
- The comparison is undertaken on the basis of a
probable evolution and the changes in some
parameters - the specific impacts can be identified