Overview of Wind Development in Canada and in Quebec

1
Overview of Wind Development in Canada and in
Quebec

• Leonie Bouvier
• Communications Director
• Canadian Wind Energy Association
• March 28, 2006

2
Overview

• Current Status
• Current status and future growth in Canada and
  Quebec
• Developments in Quebec, 2004 to 2005
• Key events
• Leadership
• Research results
• Policy developments
• Challenges and CanWEA Priorities
• Activities going forward
• Summary

3
About CanWEA

• Our membership
• 230 corporate members, including manufacturers,
  utilities, governments, developers, consultants,
  educational institutions
• Many others students, advocates, individuals
• What we do
• Advance policy development at federal, provincial
  municipal
• Provide information to members, government and
  the public
• Serve as an advocate and spokesperson for wind
  industry
• Form strategic alliances in Canada and
  internationally
• Quebec Caucus
• 27 members, representing manufacturers,
  developers, consultants, law firms and NGOs in
  Quebec and across Canada
• Guides CanWEAs activities in Quebec

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1. Status of Wind in Canada and Quebec
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Wind Energy Rapid Growth

• Average annual growth rate (2000-2005) 38
• Growth is accelerating 54 growth in 2005
• Growth will exceed 50 again in 2006

6
Current Status of Wind

• Installed capacity today 751 MW 0.3 of total
  demand
• Capacity installed in 2005 239 MW (new record)

1 MW
PEI 14 MW
212 MW
20 MW
274 MW
112 MW
83 MW
NS 35 MW
7
Status of Wind

• Growth in Canada
• Current installed wind capacity 751 MW
• Projects now underway 2,861 MW
• Provincial commitments 5,000 MW to 2015
• Total estimated capacity in 2015 gt 8,500 MW
• Growth in Quebec
• Current installed capacity 212 MW
• Projects now underway 1244 MW
• 2nd RFP 2000 MW
• Total estimated capacity in 2013 3,500 MW
• 3,500 MW 7 of total generation
• By 2013, Quebec will have almost half of
  Canadas installed wind capacity

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Governments Are Demanding More Wind Energy

• Federal
• WPPI seeks to support 4,000 MW of development by
  2010
• Provincial Targets
• Quebec 3,500 MW of wind energy (2013)
• Ontario 2,700 MW of renewables (2010)
• Manitoba 1,000 MW of wind energy (2014)
• Alberta 500 MW of renewables (2008)
• NB 400 MW of wind energy (2016)
• NS 380 MW of wind energy (2014)
• PEI 200 MW of wind energy (2010)
• Under Construction / Signed PPA in January 2006
• gt 3,000 MW

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Implementing Current Provincial Targets 8,500
MW by 2015
NL 25 MW
2 MW
NB 400 MW
3500 MW
1000 MW
500 MW
200 MW
2400 MW
PEI 200 MW
NS 380 MW
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8,500 MW of Wind Energy in 2015

• This would produce enough electricity to meet
  3.1 of Canadas total electricity demand in 2015
• This would make wind energy responsible for 16
  of the electricity produced from new facilities
  constructed in Canada between 2005 and 2015
• But it still leaves us far behind countries where
  wind energy already addresses a significantly
  larger portion of electricity demand
• Denmark (18)
• Germany (6)
• Spain (6)

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Why develop wind?

• Resource
• Canada has tremendous untapped wind resources and
  excellent opportunities to partner with
  hydropower
• Winter peak production
• Rural economic development and manufacturing
  opportunities
• Investment and job creation potential
• Environmental benefits
• Wind energy creates no air pollution, water
  pollution, GHG emissions, or solid or toxic
  wastes
• Costs
• Wind energy has no fuel cost
• Rapid incremental installation

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2. Developments in Quebec
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Key Events

• Key events
• Cancellation of Le Suroît project (Autumn 2004)
• Success of first wind RFP (1000 MW)
• Limited success of cogeneration RFP
• Fossil fuel price increases
• Lead to
• Second RFP announced (2000 MW)
• Decree and RFP issued in late 2005
• Bids due April 2007

14
Leadership

• Changing climate for wind
• Wind power is the subject of a broad consensus
  within our society We expect to become a
  leader in wind energy on the North American
  continent, Premier Jean Charest, June 2005
• In May 2005, the new Director General of Hydro
  Québec, Thierry Vandal set a bold course for the
  utility the future is in large scale wind-hydro
  integration

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Research Findings

• Finding 1 Quebec has a tremendous wind
  resource
• Wind potential at sites with good wind (gt 7 m/s)
  and within 25 km of existing transmission lines
  100,000 MW
• Estimated cost of electricity 6.3 /kWh to 8.9
  /kWh
• Well-distributed resource
•  Inventaire du potentiel éolien exploitable su
  Québec , Hélimax 2005

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Research Findings

• Finding 2 Greater integration of wind can
  help
• Diversify Quebecs energy supply and complement
  hydro
• Develop Quebecs expertise and leadership in wind
• Increase reliability of supply system
• Contribute to Quebecs sustainable development
  goals
• Stabilise energy prices
•  Lénergie éolienne et les grands enjeux
• énergétiques au Québec  CanWEA, GPCo

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Research Findings

• Finding 3 Quebec can absorb 10 wind
• Estimated that grid could absorb 4,000 MW of wind
  (10 of peak power production) by 2015 without
  undue constraint on the system
• But real potential may be far greater
• I think the capacity to integrate more wind
  plant is there. I think we have to find a way to
  optimize it and to be economically efficient
  But we feel the capacity could be higher than
  10,
• André Boulanger, Président Hydro-Québec
  Distribution
•  Évaluation de la capacité dintégration du
  réseau intégré dHydro-Québec au regard de
  lajout de parcs de production délectricité à
  partir dénergie éolienne  RSW Inc.

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Policy Developments

• Second request for proposals
• 2000 MW total, projects allowed anywhere on
  Quebec
• 60 provincial content requirement
• For each project, including installation
• 30 Gaspé requirement
• Over a period of ten years, capital equipment
  only
• Provincial policy
• Energy policy still to be announced
• Quebec climate change plan still to be announced
• Net metering
• Announced in November 2004
• Details still to be released

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3. Challenges and CanWEA Priorities
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Challenges

• Ensure development of a strong Quebec industry
• Ensure a competitive cost of electricity
• Develop a competitive market
• Promote a diverse market
• Exploring wind beyond 3,500 MW
• CanWEA Target for Québec 6,000 MW of wind by
  2015 (10 of generation)
• Key optimising wind/hydro integration
• We feel that with the hydropower facilities we
  have, if there is a place on earth with the
  maximum possibility to integrate wind and
  hydropower, it is Quebec, André Boulanger,
  Président Hydro Québec Distribution
• Promoting all types of windprojects (small-scale)

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CanWEA Priorities

• How to encourage small projects (lt 10 MW)
• Option 1 - Separate RFP for small projects
• Advantage Guaranteed number of projects
• Disadvantage Success for bidders not guaranteed
  competition between municipalities, First Nations
  groups, the municipal sector and cooperatives
• Option 2 Standard Offer Contracts (Feed-in
  Law)
• Advantage Simplicity no competition between
  bidders
• Disadvantage May be more expensive
• Allocation should be over and above the existing
  2000 MW allocation

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CanWEA Priorities

• Framework policy development
• Pressing for release of provincial energy policy
  and strategy
• Pressing for climate change strategy
• Access for small wind
• Working to improve small wind access (e.g. net
  metering)
• Promote small wind in promising markets farms,
  commercial, on-grid residential

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Summary

• Quebec has taken bold steps towards becoming a
  North American wind industry leader
• Looking beyond 3,500 MW to 6,000 MW
• Challenges lie ahead
• Development of energy policy
• Higher wind penetrations
• Wind/hydro integration
• Participation of smaller projects (co-ops,
  communities, First Nations, municipal sector)
• Improved access for small wind turbines