Program Flow Physics 101

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Program Flow Physics 101

• Jeff Morrow

November 6, 2006
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A lean walk through history
Harvey House ca. 1895
Highland Park ca. 1920
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Deviation reduction strategies
Problem Detection inspectors, MRB, JIC inventory,
fire fighting/recovery/heroism
Problem Detection inspectors, MRB, JIC inventory,
fire fighting/recovery/heroism
Problem Solving SPC, teamwork, 7 Old Tools
80-90
Problem Prevention hoshin kanri, reliable
TDP/PDP, flow production, TPM, 5S, SMED, poka
yoke, jidoka, supplier support systems, heijunka,
discplined and flexible standardization
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Deviation reduction strategies
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Deviation reduction strategies
5
6s
Problem Detection inspectors, MRB, JIC inventory,
fire fighting/recovery/heroism
5
Problem Solving SPC, teamwork, 7 Old Tools
90
Problem Prevention hoshin kanri, reliable
TDP/PDP, flow production, TPM, 5S, SMED, poka
yoke, jidoka, supplier support systems, heijunka,
disciplined and flexible standardization
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Session Agenda

• why the Toyota Way matters
• the physics of program flow
• the Toyota Way

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Some market capitalizations, 2006
201B
13B
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Session Agenda

• why the Toyota Way matters
• the physics of program flow
• the Toyota Way

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Toyota, transportation powerhouse

• Toyotas recent record
• Overtook DaimlerChrysler as 3 in U.S. sales 1
  in Japan 2 in world 2003
• Market Cap that exceeds GMs, Fords, and
  DaimlerChryslers combined by 50
• Successful, well planned and executed
  globalization/localization
• 2004 profit twice that of Ford GM combined
• 30 Billion in cash and securities reserves
• Toyotas supply base adds black box 70 of
  the value to Toyota vehicles
• PD cycles consistently less than its best
  competitors - rarely misses milestones
• Greater product variety with fewer resources
  committed
• 80 of engineers time is value-added vs. 20
  at competitors
• A leader in introducing game-changing technology
  e.g., hybrid-power vehicles

The real difference between Toyota and other
vehicle manufacturers is not the Toyota
Production System, it is the Toyota Development
System. Kosaku Yamada, Lexus Chief Engineer
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How can we best earn design value?
percent complete
time
Planned RTP
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Learning to see PM process waste

• Hand-offs cause information losses,
  accountability losses
• External quality reinforcement - inspection by
  others delays information generation
• Waiting is rampant in PD. major source of
  long queues and long lead times
• Transaction waste e.g., bidding multiple
  suppliers, long negotiations, big SOWs
• Re-invention waste is evidence of ELD (Enterprise
  Learning Disability)
• Weak schedule discipline worsens task
  inter-arrival time variation and lengthens cycles
• High variation in process capacity and task
  inter-arrival times
• System over-utilization - as utilization reaches
  capacity, cycle times balloon non-linearly
• Large information batches create variation in
  capacity and task inter-arrival times
• Redundant tasks e.g., the check-checkers work
  is checked by the check-check-checkers
• Stop and go tasks - frequent shut down and set up
  diffuses attention
• Unsynchronized concurrent work - manufacturing
  gets out too far on the limb

High Performance Product Development A Systems
Approach to a Lean Product Development Process,
James M. Morgan, unpublished dissertation, 2002
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Toyota has names for these things
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These waste elements interact
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Server capacity and cycle time
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Server capacity and cycle time
For constrained servers, cycle time worsens
non-linearly with capacity utilization
Cycle Time
Capacity Utilization
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Discovery generates surprise
Uncertainty re task arrival and server capacity
means
muda
mura
Server utilization can rise unexpectedly
and/or Server availability can drop unexpectedly
muri
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Capacity, variance, cycle time
?2 1
Mean Cycle Time
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Mean Capacity Demanded, percent of available
Hopp, Wallace J. and Mark L. Spearman, Factory
Physics Foundations of Manufacturing Management,
McGraw Hill 1996
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people, practice, and technology

• Not good practice

Process development and specification should be
done off-line, by specialists, and then deployed
to the workforce.
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Not a good people tactic
We need faster cycle times, so lets give em
stretch goals!
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Example of bad technology strategy
Hairball IT systems exacerbate information flow
unevenness
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Information flow and cost over-run, actual data
and conclusions

• Two requirements
• Easy availability of information
• Communication of emerging knowledge to enable
  learning and innovation

Hoult et al., Cost Awareness in Design The Role
of Data Commonality, 1995
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Session Agenda

• why the Toyota Way matters
• the physics of program flow
• the Toyota Way

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Toyotas vision, 1997
Thanks to Takashi Tanaka, Q-V System
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Toyota reality - The Devils Cycle
muri
mura
muda
mura
mura
Thanks to Takashi Tanaka, Q-V System
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Bringing visual factory thinking to PD
Shop floor visual factory
Program oobeya room
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Trumping the Devils Cycle
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IT for Lean Program Management
Integral PDS Architecture
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Achieving the AD21 Goal
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What this looks like to an engineer
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PM cycle time physics mura, muri, muda
?2 1
Mean Cycle Time
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Mean Capacity Demanded, percent of available
Hopp, Wallace J. and Mark L. Spearman, Factory
Physics Foundations of Manufacturing Management,
McGraw Hill 1996