The Intercensal Population Estimates Program

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The Intercensal Population Estimates Program

• Signe I. Wetrogan
• Assistant Chief for Population Estimates and
  Projections
• Presented to FSCPE/SDC Meeting
• Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• March 28, 2005

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Intercensal Population Estimates Program Vintage
2004 Products and Schedule

• Includes July 2004 and April 1, 2000
• Revisions for July 1, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003
• National and State total population
• Late December 2004 release
• Includes selected maps
• Puerto Rico total population
• Late December 2004 release

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Intercensal Population Estimates Program Vintage
2004 Products and Schedule

• State age 18 and over (total)
• Early January 2005 release
• Includes 2004 date only
• State age and sex
• Early March, 2005 release
• Includes 2004 and revisions for 2000 to 2003
• Popular tables includes broad age groups
• Downloadable file Includes resident and civilian
  population data
• Downloadable file includes single years of age
  data

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Intercensal Population Estimates Program Vintage
2004 Products and Schedule

• Puerto Rico age 18 and over (total)
• Early January 2005 release
• Includes 2004 date only
• Puerto Rico age and sex
• Early March 2005 release
• Includes 2004 and revisions for 2000 to 2003
• Popular tables includes broad age groups
• Downloadable file includes single years of age
  data

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Intercensal Population Estimates Program Vintage
2004 Products and Schedule

• Includes July 2004 and April 1, 2000
• Revisions for July 1, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003
• County total population
• Currently scheduled for week of April 11, 2005
• To include maps and tables
• To include downloadable file with components
• Metropolitan/Micropolitan aggregations
• Following County release

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Intercensal Population Estimates Program Vintage
2004 Products and Schedule

• Includes July 2004 and April 1, 2000
• Revisions for July 1, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003
• Puerto Rico Municipio total population
• Currently scheduled for week of April 11, 2005

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Intercensal Population Estimates Program Vintage
2004 Products and Schedule

• Includes July 2004 and April 1, 2000
• Revisions for July 1, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003
• National age, sex, race, Hispanic origin
• Early May 2005 release

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Intercensal Population Estimates Program
Vintage 2004 Products and Schedule

• Includes July 2004 and April 1, 2000
• Revisions for July 1, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003
• State age, sex,race, Hispanic origin
• Detailed age groups
• June/July 2005 release
• County age, sex, race, Hispanic origin
• June/July 2005 release
• No popular tables Only downloadable files
• Release combined with State characteristics

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Intercensal Population Estimates Program
Vintage 2004 Products and Schedule

• Includes July 2004 and April 1, 2000
• Revisions for July 1, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003
• Subcounty total population
• Includes boundary updates effective January 1,
  2004
• Early June 2005 release
• State and county housing unit estimates
• July 2005 release

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Intercensal Population Estimates Program Vintage
2004 Products and Schedule

• Interim National population projections
• Interim with age, sex, and limited race/Hispanic
  origin released March 17, 2004
• Detailed downloadable file with age/sex/limited
  race detail available on line
• Interim State population projections
• To be released week of April 4, 2005

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Intercensal Population Estimates Program and
American Community Survey

• Provide county population estimates (non-group
  quarters population) by age, sex, race, Hispanic
  origin to ACS Staff
• Use only most recent year
• No re-weighting of prior year ACS data for
  revisions to prior year population estimates
• 2004 ACS data weighted to vintage 2004 data 2003
  ACS data weighted to vintage 2003 data, etc.
• Data are non-group quarters population
• Weighting done at county and aggregate county
  level by age, sex, race, Hispanic Origin
• Sample cell size determines amount of county
  aggregation needed for weighting
• No weighting for subcounty population estimates

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Intercensal Population Estimates Program

• Develop a well-documented, repeatable population
  estimates and projections system that allows for
  the systematic introduction of methodological
  enhancements and development of new products
• Apply capability maturity model integration
  standards and principles to population estimates
  and projections system
• CMMI - Level II compliance a goal

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Intercensal Population Estimates ProgramCurrent
Production

• Streamline the estimates production process
• Created cross branch production teams
• Documentation of methodology and processes
• Created separate review team
• Created dissemination team

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Intercensal Population Estimates ProgramCurrent
Production

• Speed up dissemination
• Maintain current pre-release calls with FSCPE/SDC
  Steering Committees
• Increase use of maps and graphs in dissemination

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Intercensal Population Estimates
ProgramMethodological Enhancements

• International migration
• Internal migration
• Rebuild State/County characteristics system
• Integrate current age/sex model with age/sex/race
  characteristics model
• Improve integration of FSCPE and NCHS vital
  statistics
• Address inconsistencies between vital statistics
  and Census data

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Intercensal Population Estimates Program
Methodological Enhancements

• Improve housing unit estimates
• Examine consistency of MAF aggregates and housing
  unit estimates
• Improve subcounty population estimates
• Updates estimates of PPH and vacancy rates with
  ACS
• Improve estimates of population for school
  districts
• Improve constant school district to county ratio
  approach

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Intercensal Population Estimates Program
Methodological Enhancements

• Maintain close contact with FSCPE/SDC Steering
  Committee
• Work with Methods Subcommittee of FSCPE
• Enhancements introduced after testing and review
  of simulation results
• Phased in for vintage 2005 through vintage 2009
• Complete evaluation in 2011

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Intercensal Population Estimates Program New
Product Development

• Annual estimates of the population of Municipios
  in Puerto Rico by age, sex, and race
• To be available with vintage 2005 and used as
  controls for ACS