Lamb supply and demand trends

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Lamb supply anddemand trends

Mark Topliff Beef and Sheep Sector Economist
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GB Finished Lamb Prices
p per kg carcase
Weeks
Source AHDBMS (Economics)
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UK Lamb Slaughterings
Average weekly kill (000 head)
2009/08 YTD -11
Source Defra
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UK Breeding flock trends
million head
Source Defra Dec Survey
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UK lamb slaughterings
million head
2007/2000 -15.1 2008/2007 6
Source MAFF/Defra AHDBMS
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Currency trends - against
GBP/EUR
In 4th quarter of 2008 Sterling weaken
considerably against the Euro. Currently is
around 9 weaker than year ago.
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UK sheep meat exports
000 tonnes
Source Defra/GTIS
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UK sheep meat imports
000 tonnes carcase weight

Source Defra/GTIS
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GB retail lamb sales - volume
Estimated volume sales in GB (moving annual total)
2006 up 3 2007 up 9.5 2008 down
4.4
52 weeks ending
Source TNS
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GB retail mince lamb sales
Estimated volume sales in GB (moving annual total)
Volume up 20 in 2008 10 of lamb sales in 2008
52 weeks ending
Source TNS
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UK sheep meat consumption
000 tonnes
2008 6 kg per capita
-5
-5
-2
Source MLC/AHDB MS
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UK sheep meat supply balance
Figures may not add to totals due to rounding
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Global trends Breeding ewe numbers
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EU supplies still falling
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New Zealand Output in decline

• 2008/09 Lamb crop - 15 / 4.7m hd
• drought, lower lambing percentages
• Lamb Slaughterings to fall by 23
• strong start to year, higher weights
• Lamb production 20 lower
• sharp tightening as year progresses
• Producer prices improving
• prices up NZ30 per lamb

NZ Australia account for over 80 of world
trade, so inevitable price effects but demand
levels will be key
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Thank you for your attention
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Marketing Support for the Simply Lamb Campaign

• Laura Bishop
• Trade Marketing Executive

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• Research tells us that some consumers have
  negative connotations of lamb, including
• - Price
• - Plate waste
• - Appearance / Fat levels
• - Value

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• Lamb is simple to cook and can provide many
  alternative meal solutions.
• It is a unique, tasty and succulent product which
  needs communicating to the consumer.
• Simple to cook Simply delicious

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• Three promotional packages for the supply chain
  (Independent Retail, Foodservice Multiple
  Retail), have been developed to help drive sales
  of lamb during the summer months and autumn.

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Independent Retailers

• A promotional point of sale kit will be made
  available to
• independent butchers
• Cabinet Highlighters to promote new products
  and recipe promotions
• Posters large, impactful posters for retail
  customers to be inspired
• Consumer Leaflets recipes and information for
  consumers focusing on new products, new recipes,
  healthy options

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Foodservice Sector

• A broad sector with differing markets, including
• Pubs, Contract Caterers, Fast Food, School Meals,
  Restaurants and Hotel chains.
• Our message remains the same
• Lamb is simple to cook, good value, versatile
  and.
• Simply Delicious

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Foodservice Sector

• Information for catering butcher and chef
• Specification manual, showcasing all cuts
  demonstrated today
• Sales folder
• Caterer presenter cuts and recipe suggestions
• Meal solutions on our website
  www.eblexfoodservice.co.uk

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Foodservice Sector

• For pubs and pub chain suppliers there is a
  consumer
• support kit, highlighting lamb and encouraging
  consumers to
• try the new lamb specials on menus.
• Blackboard
• Consumer leaflet
• Table talkers

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Multiple Retailers

• All multiple retailers who are Quality Standard
  scheme
• members will be asked to participate in the
  promotion.
• On pack labels - to raise awareness of lamb and
  highlight the meal versatility of the product
• Consumer leaflets - containing recipe
  information, positioning lamb as modern and
  healthy
• Shelf barker cards - on the counter shelf will
  emphasise the campaign and encourage sales of
  lamb

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A comprehensive umbrella campaign to help lamb
sales and position lamb as good value, simple to
cook and versatile, no matter what the meal
occasionSimply Lamb. Simply Delicious