Janusz Cofala and Zbigniew Klimont

1
Janusz Cofala and Zbigniew Klimont
Assessment of emissions from transport
sector Overview of IIASAs experience
2
RAINS approach

• Calculate transport emissions at (sub) national
  level based on
• Energy consumption and veh-km by source category
• Emission factors for each vehicle type
• Efficiencies of emission control technologies
• Implementation of controls

3
Coverage (1)

• Estimate global emissions by country, world
  region
• Pollutants SO2, NOx, CO, BC, OC, NMVOC
• Period 1990 2030
• Not included
• International shipping and aviation

4
Coverage (2)

• OECD 90
• Europe (20 countries)
• Pacific OECD (3 countries)
• North America (3 countries)
• Non-OECD
• Eastern Europe (12 countries)
• Russia and NIS (12 countries, Russia on province
  level)
• Centrally Planned Asia (6 countries, China on
  province level)
• South Asia (6 countries, India on province level)
• Other Pacific Asia (9 countries, some on
  sub-regional level)
• Middle East
• Africa
• Latin America

5
Mobile source categories

• Road sector
• Cars and light-duty trucks
• Heavy-duty trucks and buses
• Motorcycles and mopeds 2-stroke, 4-stroke
  engines
• Off-road sector
• Forestry and agricultural tractors and machines
• Mobile machines in construction and industry
• Inland waterways and national sea shipping
• Railways
• Small 2-stroke engines (hand-held tools,
  gardening equipment etc.)
• Other (e.g., military)

6
Mobile source control technologies

• Fuel quality improvement (sulfur, lead content,
  RVP, cetane number)
• Road Euro I Euro V (VI) and US/ Japanese
  equivalents
• Non-road up to five stages (as in European
  legislation)
• National shipping combustion modification, SCR
• Control more than one pollutant (NOx, CO, NMVOC,
  PM)
• Emissions of some pollutants may increase (e.g.,
  NH3)!!

7
Emission control scenarios

• Current legislation
• Enforcement of emission standards for road and
  off-road sector (Auto-Oil, US and Japanese
  legislation, Walsh, CAI Asia, Africa, Latin
  America)
• Maximum feasible reduction (MFR)
• Euro 5/6 standards and off-road equivalents for
  all vehicle types

8
Legislation on cars in Asia
Source CAI-Asia, 2005
9
Legislation on mobile sources - world
Source Bertelsen and Walsh, 2000
10
Data sources

• Activity projections
• National scenarios for OECED countries, other
  Europe, Asia, Russia
• Other countries/regions
• 1990 2000 international statistics (IEA, motor
  vehicle statistics)
• Projections till 2030 trends from Message SRES
  B2 scenario scaled down to the regional/country
  level

11
World NOx emissions by sector, million tons
12
EDGAR-RAINS comparison NOx, million tons, year
2000
13
Conclusions

• Framework for constructing bottom-up emission
  scenarios available
• Enforcement of current legislation emission
  standards on mobile sources has an important
  effect on emissions
• Implementation of BAT offers potential for
  further reduction
• Large uncertainties related to
• National activity scenarios (off-road, special
  types of vehicles - rikshas, tuk-tuks etc.)
• Country/region specific emission factors
• Enforcement of legislation (maintenance level,
  fuel quality)
• Further work needed, participation of national
  experts essential

14
Issues to be discussed

• Where are the largest weakness/uncertainties?
• How can we improve the quality of assessment?
• Possible data sources on
• Activity forecasts
• Emission factors
• Control technologies (to what extent
  country-specific factors need to be taken into
  account?)
• Pollution control legislation - current and
  planned, enforcement
• Contributions of individual teams
• Organization of the work (how to exchange data)

15
Emissions of NOx, million tons