M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Sch

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M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C.
Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter
The CAFE baseline scenarios Emission projections
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Approach for baseline emission projections

• Match RAINS estimates with nationally reported
  emission inventories for 2000
• Use projections on emission generating activities
  (energy, transport, agriculture)
• EU-wide scenarios and national projections
• Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures
  up to 2020
• Taking account of international and national
  legislation

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Preparation of RAINS databases
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Bilateral consultations (1)
Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments received Comments PRIMES Energy scenario Agr. scen
Denmark - - 16 Jan 04 - Y Y
Latvia - - 08 Oct 03 - - Y
EUROPIA 2-3 Oct 03 2 05 Dec 03 23 Mar 04 -
EURELECTRIC 30-31 Oct 03 4 - -
Hungary 14 Nov 03 1 - - - -
Germany 20-21 Nov 03 4 19 Dec 03 - 23 Mar 04 Y - -
Czech Republic 25 Nov 03 3 19 Dec - 27 Feb, 07Apr 04 Y Y Y
ACEA 12 Dec 03 10 - -
Italy 15-16 Dec 03 2 19 Jan, 15 Feb - 02 Apr 04 Y Y -
France 8-9 Jan 04 5 31 Mar 04 - 2-15 Apr 04 Y Y -
Sweden 22-23 Jan 04 3 29 Jan, 09 Mar - 04 Apr 04 Y Y Y
UK 26-28 Jan 04 8 19 Feb, 03 Mar - 15 Mar, 06 Apr 04 Y Y Y
Spain 4-5 Feb 04 5 30 Mar 04 - 13 Apr 04 Y - -
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Bilateral consultations (2)
Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments received Comments PRIMES Energy scenario Agr. . scen
Portugal 12-13 Feb 04 5 27 Feb, 03,05 Mar - 08 Apr 04 Y Y Y
Belgium 16-17 Feb 04 7 08 Mar - 2-13 Apr, 06 Apr 04 Y Y -
Austria 23 Feb 04 11 24 Feb - 18,19 Mar, 19 Apr 04 - - Y
Ireland 4-5/19 Mar 04 2 12,19 Mar 04 Y - Y
ESVOC 8 Mar 04 7 - - -
Finland 8-9 Mar 04 3 19, 25 Mar 04 - 19 Apr 04 Y Y -
Lithuania 10 Mar 04 2 24 Mar 04 Y - -
Estonia 12 Mar 04 2 17 Mar 04 - - -
Slovakia 15 Mar 04 3 22 Mar 04 Y - -
Poland 17-18 Mar 04 2 17,18 Mar 04 - 07 Apr 04 - - -
Slovenia 22 Mar 04 2 24,29 Mar 04 - 01, 08 Apr 04 - Y Y
Netherlands 25-26 Mar 04 4 16 Mar 04 - 02,08,18 Apr 04 Y - Y
19 4 101 21 14 10 10
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RAINS emission estimates vs. national
inventories, 2000
SO2
NOx
VOC
NH3
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Economic drivers for emission projections
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Projections of economic activitiesused for the
CAFE baseline scenarios

• Energy
• Revised PRIMES projection for all 25 EU
  countries, with climate measures (carbon price
  12-20 /t CO2)
• Including national comments received after April
• DG-TREN Energy Outlook to 2030 (PRIMES
  calculations for all 25 EU countries, without
  further climate measures)
• National projections (10 countries) - with
  climate measures?
• Agriculture
• DG-AGRI projection for all 25 EU countries,
  pre-CAP reform
• National projections (10 countries)

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Economic driversassumed for the PRIMES energy
projections
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CO2 emissionsof the PRIMES projections Mt
Withclimate measures
No furtherclimatemeasures
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National projectionsconsidered for the CAFE
baseline

• Energy
• Belgium
• Czech Republic
• Denmark
• Finland
• France
• Italy
• Portugal
• Slovenia
• Sweden
• UK

• Agriculture
• Austria
• Denmark
• France
• Ireland
• Italy
• Latvia
• Netherlands
• Portugal
• Slovenia
• UK

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CO2 emissions 2015relative to 2000
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SO2 emissions
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SO2 emissions by sectorWith climate measures
scenario kt
NewMemberStates
EU-15
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SO2 emissions projected for 2010compared to NEC
emission ceilings
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Range of SO2 emission projectionskt
----- EU-15 ----- New Member States
---- Sea regions
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SO2 emissionsWith climate measures scenario
kt
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NOx emissions
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NOx emissions by sectorWith climate measures
scenario kt
New MemberStates
EU-15
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NOx emissions With climate measures scenario,
EU-25
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NOx emissions projected for 2010compared to NEC
emission ceilings
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Range of NOx emission projectionskt
----- EU-15 ----- New Member States
---- Sea regions
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NOx emissionsWith climate measures scenario
kt
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VOC emissions
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VOC emissionsWith climate measures scenario
kt
New Member States
EU-15
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VOC emissions projected for 2010compared to NEC
emission ceilings
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NH3 emissions
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NH3 emissions Pre-CAP reform scenario kt
NewMemberStates
EU-15
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NH3 emissions projected for 2010compared to NEC
emission ceilings
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Primary PM emissions
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RAINS PM emission estimates vs. national
inventories, 2000
PM10
PM2.5
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PM2.5 emissions by sector With climate
measures scenario kt
NewMemberStates
EU-15
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Contribution to primary PM2.5 emissions With
climate measures scenario, EU-15
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Black carbon emissions With climate measures
scenario kt
New Member States
EU-15
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Conclusions

• While accounting for continued economic growth
• National emissions of air pollutants will
  decrease up to 2020 SO2 -65, NOx-50,
  VOC -45, NH3 -4, PM2.5 -45
• Due to structural changes and emission control
  legislation
• Relevance of sectors for further measures will
  change.
• Small combustion sources!
• Industrial processes, solvents!
• Off-road vehicles and machinery!
• Emissions from maritime activities will surpass
  land-based emissions of EU-25

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The baseline scenario on the Web

• All country- and sector-specific results of the
  baseline scenarios are available at
• www.iiasa.ac.at/rains