M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Sch

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M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C.
Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter
The CAFE baseline scenarios Air quality and
impacts
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Air quality impactsanalyzed for the CAFE
baseline scenario

• Health
• Loss in life expectancy attributable to PM2.5
• Premature deaths attributable to ozone
• Vegetation
• Ozone damage to forests (AOT40)
• Excess acid deposition to forests
• Excess acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems
• Excess acid deposition to lakes
• Excess nitrogen deposition
• All impacts shown for no further climate
  measures scenario, average results of 1997,
  1999, 2000 2003 meteorological conditions

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Inter-annual meteorological variabilityfor PM2.5

1999
1997
Rural concentrations,annual mean µg/m3 from
known anthropog. sources excluding sec. org.
aerosols. Calculations with emissions for the
year 2000

2000
2003


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Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5

2000 2010
2020
Rural concentrations, annual mean µg/m3 from
known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org.
aerosols Average of calculations for 1997, 1999,
2000 2003 meteorologies
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Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.52020
Rural concentrations, annual mean µg/m3 from
known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org.
aerosols Average of calculations for 1997, 1999,
2000 2003 meteorologies
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Loss in life expectancyattributable to
anthropogenic PM2.5 months


2000 2010
2020
Loss in average statistical life expectancy due
to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Average of
calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 2003
meteorologies
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Loss in life expectancy 2020attributable to
anthropogenic PM2.5 months
Loss in average statistical life expectancy due
to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Average of
calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 2003
meteorologies
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Loss in life expectancy attributable to
anthropogenic PM2.5 months
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Premature mortality attributable to ozonerelated
to excess of daily max. 8 hour means gt 35 ppb
(SOMO35)
Applied relative risk factor 1.003 / 10 µg/m3
increase in daily max 8 h mean
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Health-relevant ozone concentrationsSOMO35,
ppb.days
2000 2010
2020
Rural concentrations Average of calculations for
1997, 1999, 2000 2003 meteorologies
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Premature deaths attributable to
ozonecases/year
Provisional calculations with 5050 km resolution
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Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrationsAOT40
ppm.hoursm

2000 2010
2020
Critical level for forests 5 ppm.hours Average
of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 2003
meteorologies
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Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations
2020AOT40 ppm.hours
Critical level for forests 5 ppm.hours Average
of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 2003
meteorologies
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Acid deposition to forests
2000 2010
2020
Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition
above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific
deposition, Average of calculations for 1997,
1999, 2000 2003 meteorologies
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Acid deposition to forests2020
Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition
above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific
deposition, Average of calculations for 1997,
1999, 2000 2003 meteorologies
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Percent of forest area with acid deposition
above critical loads
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Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems
including HABITAT areas

2000 2010
2020
Percentage of area of semi-natural
ecosystemswith acid deposition above critical
loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition.
Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000
2003 meteorologies
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Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems
including HABITAT areas, 2020
Percentage of area of semi-natural
ecosystemswith acid deposition above critical
loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition.
Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000
2003 meteorologies
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Semi-natural ecosystemswith acid deposition
above critical loads km2
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Acid deposition to freshwater bodies
2000 2010
2020
Percentage of catchments area with acid
deposition above critical loads, using
ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of
calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 2003
meteorologies
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Acid deposition to freshwater bodies2020
Percentage of catchments area with acid
deposition above critical loads, using
ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of
calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 2003
meteorologies
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Percent of lake catchments area with acid
deposition above critical loads
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Excess of critical loads for eutrophication

2000 2010
2020
Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen
deposition above critical loads, using
grid-average deposition. Average of calculations
for 1997, 1999, 2000 2003 meteorologies
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Excess of critical loads for eutrophication 2020
Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen
deposition above critical loads, using
grid-average deposition. Average of calculations
for 1997, 1999, 2000 2003 meteorologies
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Percent of ecosystems area with nitrogen
deposition above critical loads for eutrophication
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Conclusions

• With decreasing pollution, also impacts are
  expected to decline in the future.
• However, problems will not be entirely resolved
• PM remains serious (5 months life expectancy
  loss in 2020)
• Ozone
• Remains a significant cause for premature deaths
  (Several 1000 cases in 2020)
• Vegetation damage Wide-spread violations of
  AOT40 critical level will prevail
• Acidification Will not disappear, mainly due to
  NH3
• Eutrophication remains unresolved