OConnor

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OConnor Sabato, Chapter 10 Public Opinion
News Media

• Presentation 10.1 The Early
• Media Political Socialization

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Key Topics

• Introduction
• The early media efforts to influence and measure
  public opinion
  
• Political socialization and the factors that
  influence opinion formation

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Introduction War as Reality TV

• Gulf War IIs impact on the news cycle
• A 20 spike in viewership
• The role of the media in covering warfare
  chroniclers or propagandists?

Journalists taking pictures of a dust storm
in Iraq as a soldier looks on. Picture
courtesy www.abcnews.go.com.
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1i. Introduction cont. The Embeds

• The role of embedded journalists in covering the
  war
  
• Were the embedded reporters able to see the
  big picture

One of the primary criticisms of
embedded reporters is that they
were incapable of objectivity.
Embedded journalist Ted Koppel
w/ the 3rd Infantry Division. Picture
courtesy www.abcnews.com.
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1ii. Introduction cont.The Role of the Media in
a Democracy

• Widespread confusion and cynicism among the
  public regarding the media
  
• The jaded public theory Americans are
  subjected to so many polls that the accuracy of
  polls must be questioned
  
• Is the media seeking merely to identify public
  opinion, or shape it?

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1iii. What is Public Opinion?

• What the public thinks about a particular issue
  at a particular point in time
  
• The snapshot quality of any particular public
  opinion survey
  
• Public opinion as a reification
• There is no single Public Opinion on
  controversial issues (e.g. abortion or gun
  control).

To regard something abstract as a material or
concrete thing.
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2. The Early Media

• The link between democracy and public opinion
• The term public opinion came into vogue in the
  early 19th century
  
• Politicians need to reliably gauge public
  sentiment

The negative image of politicians relying on
polling and keeping their fingers in the air (e
.g. measuring public opinion) is an expression of
elected officials wishes to be responsive to th
eir constituencies.
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2i. Public Opinion World War I

• President Wilson and the creation of the
  Committee on Public Information (CPI)
  
• Begin in 1914 to shift public opinion in support
  of US entrance on the side of the Allies
  
• CPIs efforts as the first American public
  relations campaign

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2ii. The Genesis of Public Opinion Polling

• Systematic polling was not created until the
  1930s
  
• The alliance of social science and statistics
• Began as a business tool, but innovative data
  gathering and interpreting techniques led to
  wider applications

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2a. Early Election Forecasting

• Attempts by newspaper to forecast the outcomes of
  elections
  
• 1824 PN newspaper attempted to predict the winner
  of the presidential election
  
• 1833 Boston Globe conducted one of the first
  exit surveys to predict the results of key
  elections
  
• The Literary Digests use of comprehensive
  surveys to predict presidential election outcomes
  between 1920-1932

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2ai. The Literary Digest

• Along with Vanity Fair, was one of the more
  influential political and cultural magazines of
  the early 20th century
  
• Famous for its election predictions

Picture courtesy www.antiqnet.com.
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2aii. Straw Polls

• Unscientific surveys used to gauge public opinion
  on issues and election outcomes
  
• The Literary Digests polls were viewed
  state-of-the-art
  
• However, it incorrectly predicted that Alf Landon
  would defeat FDR by 57-43 of the popular vote
  (FDR won by a 62-38)

What went wrong?
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2b. What Went Wrong?

• The Digests poll included potential respondents
  without establishing a representative sample
  
• Three fatal errors
• 1st Drawn from telephone directories
  automobile owners lists (over sampling the
  wealthy)
  
• 2nd Timing questionnaires mailed in early
  September
  
• 3rd Self selection only highly motivated
  individuals sent back cards (only 22 of those
  surveyed responded)

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2bi. One Pollster who got the 1936 Election Right

• Social scientist who wrote his doctoral
  dissertation on measurement of newspaper
  readership
  
• Emphasized random sampling

George Gallup (1901-1984). Picture
courtesy www.ciadvertising.org.
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2bii. 1948 Another Black Eye for the Pollsters

• Everyone including Gallup predicted that GOP
  Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman
  
• Truman won by appealing to new constituencies

Truman with a newspaper announcing his defeat. P
icture
courtesy Encarta.
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2biii. How Accurate are Polls?

• The problem with the 2000 elections too close to
  call
  
• Surveys can predict outcomes with a significant
  margin of victory otherwise, they are no better
  than straw polls in close elections
  
• Politics Now section on p. 331 what was wrong
  with Gallups poll of Muslims?

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3. Political Socialization

• Many political attitudes come from values
  systems
  
• Political socialization The process through
  which an individual acquires particular political
  orientations
  
• The learning process by which people acquire
  their political beliefs and values

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3a. Major Factors Affecting Opinion Formation

• Earliest memories of politics can have a lifelong
  impact
  
• The importance of parental guidance into the
  world of politics
  
• If parents discuss political issues in the
  presence of their children, the child is more
  likely to develop political attitudes

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3b. The Family

• The importance of communication and receptivity
• Children raised in partisan households are more
  likely to become partisans themselves

In 1988, 58 of children in GOP households ident
ified
themselves as Republicans.
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3c. School and Peers

• The role of schools in teaching respect
  patriotism
  
• The role of the schools in cultivating civic
  virtues
  
• The relationship between education and voting

Educators cant make ideas safe for students, but
they
can make students safe for ideas
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3ci. Schools cont.

• In higher education, students learn important
  critical skills
  
• College and the liberalizing effect
• Uneven evidence that more education makes you
  liberal
  
• More young people tend to self-identify as
  liberal than conservative (28-21)

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3d. Religion

• The importance of religion for many Americans
• The rising number of secular Americans
• The secular/spiritual divide in American politics

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3di. The Religious Divide 2000 Data
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3dii. The Impact of Religion

• Religious perspectives affect peoples political
  views and affiliations
  
• Catholics and Jews were historically marginalized
  groups who have supported the Democratic Party
  
• The shift of Baptists from the Democratic to
  Republican Party

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3e. Gender

• Women hold distinctive political views
• More likely to hold negative views of military
  intervention positive views on social welfare
  education

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3ei. The Gender Gap

• Women are also on average more likely to support
  environmental protection and oppose capital
  punishment
  
• Are many womens more liberal orientations
  explained by a maternal nature
  
• Research does not indicate such a link

Why are women, on average, more likely to
self-identify as liberal and support the Democrat
ic Party?
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3eii. Gender Differences on Political IssuesData
from a recent Gallop-Washington Post Survey
What was the impact of 9/11 on the Gender Gap?
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3f. Race and Ethnicity

• The importance of cultural differences between
  whites and racial and ethnic groups
  
• The problem of alienation among African-Americans

How did the O.J. Simpson trial affect your percep
tions of race relations?
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3fi. Race cont.

• Racial and ethnic minorities are more likely to
  view government with suspicion and support
  affirmative action programs
  
• Hispanics as a whole are more likely to
  self-identify as liberal
  
• Cuban-Americans are more likely to be conservative

While 56 of Americans believed that Elian
Gonzolez should be returned to his father in Cuba
, 90 of the Cuban community believed he should
stay in the U.S.
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3g. Age

• The social and political consequences of the
  graying of America
  
• The effect of age on people view of the proper
  role of government

Older people are much more likely to vote than th
e young.
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3h. Region

• The role of immigration in creating distinctive
  regional politics
  
• Scandinavians in Minnesota, Irish, Italians, and
  Jews in NE cities
  
• The politics of the South
• More religious
• More likely to support a strong national defense
• Southerners accounted for 41 of the troops in
  the Persian Gulf war (comprise 28 of the general
  population)

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3i. The Impact of Events

• Events can have a lasting impact on peoples
  political attitudes
  
• The Great Depression, WWII, the Vietnam Conflict,
  JFKs assassination, Watergate, OK City Bombing,
  9/11 etc.
  
• Events can spark greater commitment from the
  public or widen mistrust and cynicism

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3j. The Mass Media

• A persons media habits can affect their
  perspective
  
• Media can enlighten voters or encourage turnout
• The growing number of Americans who get their
  information online (22 of Internet users
  researched candidates through the Internet)

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3k. Political Ideology and Public Opinion About
Government

• Americans attachment to strong ideological
  positions has varied over time
  
• Most Americans believe that they hold a coherent
  ideology
  
• However, 37 of Americans identify themselves as
  middle of the road or moderate

34 of Americans polled by the Roper Study
identified
themselves as conservative.