North Korea prospects for peace

1
North Korea - prospects for peace

• Tim Beal
• Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
• United Nations Association, Wellington
• Thurs 12 July 2007

2
Setting the scene

• Thanks
• Title
• Why not US Prospects for Peace?
• A brace of characters

3
This (real) gentleman
4
Met a fictitious one in 1757

• The occasion?
• Admiral John Byngs execution
• Fictitious one Voltaires Candide

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John Byng and Candide

• Byng is executed
• in this country, it is wise to kill an admiral
  from time to time to encourage the others
• Byng was not close enough to the French fleet,
  but Candide asked
• Werent the French as far from the English, as
  the English from the French?

6
US - NK US

• Just as NK is as far from US as US is from NK, so
  negotiation has two sides
• Media exclusively focuses on denuclearisation of
  NK
• What does NK think?
• Two aspects

7
NK on denuclearisation

• Not just NK but SK and other countries (i.e. US)
  in respect of Korean peninsula
• US nuclear weapons in SK land and waters, and
  long-range weapons elsewhere
• Nuclear programme to
• Deter US from attack
• Force US to drop hostility

8
Hostility

• NK wants US to accept peaceful coexistence
• Lift sanctions
• Large responsibly for devastation of economy
• Hundreds of thousands of deaths
• Malnutrition
• Barrier to rehabilitation and development
• In effect, adhere to UN charter
• Let us ask Candidian awkward questions

9
The importance of questions

• Often it is the asking of questions that is
  important
• The answer falls into place
• Similar to the little boy observing that the
  emperor was naked
• Power does not like questions

10
The portrayal of things

• Events and issues are often portrayed as if the
  received interpretation is unquestionable
• Vital to ask naive questions
• Such as?

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Examples

• Which country threatens peace, NK or US?
• Which country threatens the other, NK or US?
• Does US have a moral right to nuclear weapons
  denied to NK?
• If we are concerned about nuclear weapons, should
  we not look at the country which has 10,000
  rather than the country which has none?

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In this spirit let us examine some issues

• NK, US and the UN
• NK Missile tests July 2006
• NK Nuclear test October 2006
• US allegations about UNDP in NK January 2007
• BDA affair
• Agreement of 13 February 2007
• Prospects for peace

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Forthcoming article

• December issue of NZ Journal of Asian Studies

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Tests gtresolutions

• Both sets of tests led to unanimous
  condemnatory resolutions, imposing sanctions
• Unanimous is misleading
• Opposition from China and Russia but veto is out
  of fashion
• Water down and then often ignore

15
South Korea

• Also opposed but
• Does not have a veto
• Cannot openly defy US
• Caught in dilemma and does contradictory things
• Eg suspends aid but continues Kaesong Industrial
  Complex

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Missile tests

• July 2006 gtgtJapanese sponsored resolution 1695

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Candide would be bemused

• Reaffirming that proliferation of nuclear,
  chemical and biological weapons, as well as their
  means of delivery, constitutes a threat to
  international peace and security,
• Why proliferation rather than possession
• Once you ask the question you know the answer
• US possesses, US enemies proliferate

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Why concern at NK ballistic missiles?

• Expressing grave concern at the launch of
  ballistic missiles by the Democratic Peoples
  Republic of Korea (DPRK), given the potential of
  such systems to be used as a means to deliver
  nuclear, chemical or biological payloads,

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Candides questions

• Dont all missiles (even US ones) have this
  potential?
• Why specify ballistic missiles rather than
  missiles?
• NK missiles are ballistic, US tends to employ
  non-ballistic (i.e. cruise) missiles
• Britain alone has up to 2000 Storm Shadow and
  unknown number of Tomahawks

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Moratorium

• Registering profound concern at the DPRKs
  breaking of its pledge to maintain its moratorium
  on missile launching,
• Wasnt this moratorium (Clinton 1999)
  self-imposed and contingent on US negotiations on
  issue continuing?
• Bush had broken off negotiations

22
Missile tests

• Not illegal
• Very common
• For instance in period June-November 2006 many
  countries conducted tests of long range missiles
• Minor tests and exercises not reported
• Unless NK

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Tests

• France
• India
• Pakistan
• Russia
• US
• 3 tests of Minuteman missiles across Pacific
• UK
• No major tests but decided to replace Trident

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October nuclear test

• UN condemnation replicated double standards of
  July
• US currently does not conduct physical tests but
  may return to it
• Developing new generation of nuclear weapons and
  delivery systems
• Policy of first use
• And the track record

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Purpose of NK tests

• Force US back into negotiations
• In abeyance because of BDA affair
• Combined with other factors was successful
• Middle East
• Mid-term elections
• Negotiations were resumed and this led to
  Agreement of 13 February 2007

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BDA and UNDP affairs

• This agreement was to implement the initial
  stages of the Joint Statement of 19 September
  2005
• JS had been suspended by the Banco Delta Asia
  (BDA) affair
• In Sept 2005 US Treasury designated BDA as a
  primary money laundering concern under Section
  311 of the USA Patriot Act

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BDA charges

• Treasury claimed that BDA was laundering
  hundreds of millions of dollars for NK
• Drugs, counterfeit cigarettes, counterfeit
  currency
• Produced no evidence, even in private to SK or
  China
• Audit by Ernst Young cleared BDA

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Reasons for BDA action

• Derail Joint Statement/ Six Party Talks
• Warning or test against China
• Exercise of extraterritoriality against Chinese
  bank on Chinese territory
• Practice at using Patriot Act against other
  enemies eg Iran

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Effect of BDA

• Froze 25m NK money in BDA accounts
• More important, expelled NK from international
  banking system
• financial sanctions

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Treasury/State conflict

• From late 2006 to date there has been a battle
  between Treasury and State
• Rice apparently got Bushs agreement to negotiate
  with NK and lift financial sanctions
• Talks in Berlin January 2007gtgtAgreement of 13
  February
• Financial sanctions to be lifted in 30 days

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Treasury down but not out

• Treasury forced to unfreeze accounts but barred
  BDA from US banking system
• Ensuring sanctions remained
• Four months struggle by State to lift sanctions
  so Agreement could go ahead
• Successful?
• For the moment yes

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Meanwhile, UNDP affair

• January 2007 Deputy U.S. Ambassador to UN Mark
  Wallace alleged that NK was diverting hundreds of
  millions of dollars from UNDP operations there
• Also complained that UNDP was paying local staff
  in hard currency
• Wallace
• Protégé of John Bolton

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UNDP rebuts charges

• If it paid in won it would need to buy that with
  hard currency, so effect would be the same
• It was only spending a few million in NK each year

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Ban Ki-moon

• Ban widely seen as Americas man immediately
  order external audits on UN operation in NK
• 1 June Ban announces audit clears UNDP
• US returns to attack with fresh charges

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Charges flimsy

• One was NK had spent money on embassy property
  abroad at same time as UNDP had been spending
  money in NK
• But currency is fungible
• To Mr. Wallaces charge that the program had
  transferred 7 million to its counterpart agency
  in the North Korean government, the program said
  that the amount actually had been 175,000 and
  that most of it had gone for workshops on
  vegetable growing and seed processing

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Even ridiculous

• Most risible was complaint that UNDP had funded a
  project on arms control and disarmament, and
  supplied books
• The one the Americans singled out was

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End of Western civilization?

• Jacques E. C. Hymans
• Smith College, Massachusetts
• Cambridge University Press
• 17.99

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Prospects for peace

• Positions of governments
• Power of governments
• Rogue elements

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Japan

• Wants crisis to continue in order to facilitate
  remilitarisation (and perhaps nuclearisation)
• Uses abduction issue
• NK wants Japan out of Six Party Talks
• SK, (Russia, China) and even Rice have expressed
  annoyance at Japanese

42
China and Russia

• Want peaceful resolution
• Want NK to survive and thrive

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SK

• Wants peaceful resolution
• Wants NK to survive, develop and eventually unify
  with SK
• Even opposition GNP softening its line on NK

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NK

• Peaceful coexistence with US
• Removal of US military threat
• Lifting of sanctions and barriers to economic
  development

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US

• Much more difficult to pin down
• Ambivalent, incoherent, fluctuating
• Depends on who has bushs ear at any particular
  time

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Power of governments

• Unlikely that there are rogue elements to
  disrupt policy
• China, Russia (for war)
• Japan (for peace)
• However Abe unpopular and Upper House election 29
  July
• The Koreas?

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NK

• No doubt some/many in military would prefer
  present situation to continue or are worried
  about danger of détente
• Giving up nuclear deterrent is no easy thing
• Cf discussion in Britain
• No sign of effective opposition to Kim Jong Il

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Kim Jong Il

• How long will he continue?
• 65
• Reports of bad health - diabetes, heart disease,
  operations
• However, photo of meeting with Chinese FM on 3
  July indicates he is well, and has lost weight

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Kim and Chinese FM Yang Jiechi
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South Korea

• Military is strong but western observers discount
  possibility of coup
• Incidents may be another matter
• Defusing of tension will disadvantage right in
  forthcoming Presidential elections
• Roh keep to have a summit with Kim
• Rumour that Kim will soon visit Kaesong

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United States

• Bush and Strategic incoherence
• Who speaks for US government
• State or Treasury?
• Bush, Cheney, Rice.?

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mixed signals on Terrorism List

• In Feb Agreement US agreed to remove NK from
  terrorism list
• 27 April press conference with Abe Shinzo Bush
  said that dependent on Japanese satisfaction on
  abductee issue
• Ie never
• However Rice told Abe that abductions no bar to
  delisting

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Prospects for peace

• Mainly depends on US
• Washington is unpredictable
• Depends on who has the ear of the president
• There are also two landmines
• Financial sanctions
• Heavy enriched uranium

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Financial sanctions

• No certain that they have really been removed
• Treasury is still powerful
• NK has hinted that it is watching progress, but
  is for the moment giving Hill the benefit of the
  doubt

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HEU

• Ostensible reason for Bush tearing up Agreed
  Framework that Clinton had signed
• Claimed NK had clandestine uranium weapons
  programme
• Hill has backtracked somewhat but difficult to
  see how NK (or Hill) can satisfy US right
• Kumchangri solution?

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Process is underway

• Six Party Talks due to reconvene in Beijing on 18
  July
• NK has reacted quickly to the settlement of BDA
  issue
• IAEA visited Pyongyang following day
• Considering accelerating suspension of nuclear
  programme
• NK has issued a warning

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Prospects

• Bush - Unstable, lame duck administration, beset
  with difficulties
• Washington full of important people, in and out
  of office, who oppose settlement with NK
• And then there are the landmines
• Prospects are problematic

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