Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

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Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia
Post Gu 09 Assessment Analysis Northwest
Regions August 2009
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
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Gu 09 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field
Access and Field Data Locations
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Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and
Income

• Livelihood Groups Main Sources of Food and
  Income
• 4 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Sool Plateau, Nugal
  Valley, and Golis/Guban Pastoralists)
• Primary sources of income of poor sale of
  livestock livestock products
• Primary sources of food of poor purchase
• Primary livelihood asset of poor camel,
  sheep/goat

• 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Togdheer and
  Northwest Agro-pastoral)
• Togdheer Agro-Pastoral are more pastoral than
  agriculturalists. Main sources of income sale
  of livestock livestock products,
  self-employment (fodder sales, 600 USD per
  truckload 6 MT) main source of food purchase
• Northwest Agro-pastoral are more agriculturists
  than pastoralists. Main sources of income sale
  of crops, livestock products and labour main
  sources of food own crop production and
  purchase.

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Climate Performance of the Gu 09 Season

• Gu Seasonal Rains (April- June)
• Start of Season started on time but intermittent
  
• Temporal and Spatial Distribution Ended early,
  erratic, patchy and localized
• Dry in eastern regions April(2nd 3rd dekad),
  May (1st 3rd dekad), June
• (1st 2nd dekad)
• Dry in western regions April (3rd dekad), May
  (1st 3rd dekad)
• Near normal rains Western Golis-Guban of Awdal
  and W/galbeed, Borama town (63mm) and Hargeisa
  town (101mm)
• Poor rains Hawd, Nugal valley, Sool plateau,
  Agro-pastoral and east Golis livelihood zones
• Karan Rain (July Sept09.)
• Start of Season late and ongoing
• Temporal and Spatial Distribution limited to
  west agro-pastoral areas of W/galbeed and Awdal
  regions
• Near normal rains still ongoing and too early to
  predict
• Poor rains not yet started in western part of
  Togdheer agro-pastoral

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Climate Vegetation Conditions
NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district land cover
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Civil Insecurity

• Civil Security Situation
• Land dispute between Baki and Gabiley (June
  09), but under control by the elders and local
  authorities.
• Elections scheduled for 27 Sept. 2009 tensions
  and security unpredictable
• Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security
  Nutrition
• Low Impact
• Short-term restrictions on movement and trade in
  Baki Geibeley following land dispute
• Increasing IDP due to drought and civil
  insecurity

Source FSAU Protection Cluster
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Agriculture Gu Karan 09 Crop Establishment
Estimates
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Agriculture Gu Karan 09 Crop Establishment
Trends
Gu Karan 09 Crop Establishment Regional
Distribution
Long Term Trends in Gu Karan Crop Production
(1996-2009)
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Agriculture Gu/Karan 09 Cereal Crop
Establishment Condition
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Agriculture
Gu 09 Commercial Cereal Flow July 09
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Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices
Terms of Trade

• Regional Trend in
• Cereal Prices
• (Sorghum)

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Labor (Sorghum kg /daily wage)
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Agriculture

• Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Terms of Trade

• Regional Trend in
• Cereal Prices
• (Rice)

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Labor (kg of rice/daily wage)
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Livestock
Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration July
09

• Poor performance of Gu 09 season
• Negatively affected both rangeland and water
  conditions
• Resulting in poor livestock body conditions,
  production
• Leading to stressed and abnormal migration

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Livestock Livestock Body Conditions Trends in
Production
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Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade
Livestock
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Goat ( rice kg/head)
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Livestock
Trends in Livestock Exports and Export Quality
Goat Prices
BerberaTotal Annual Livestock Exports Compared
to 5-Year Average
Berbera Livestock Exports (Heads) and
Export Quality Goat Prices (US)
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Overall statement of livestock
Poor performance of Gu 09 season negatively
affected both rangeland as well as water
conditions resulting poor livestock body
condition and production.
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Markets
Imported Commodity Prices, Labour
Rates/Availability

• Factors Affecting Commercial Import Price
  Declines (last six months)
• Declining global prices
• Increased commercial imports
• Appreciated/ Stable SoSh
• Factors affecting Wage Labour Availability
• Limited farming activities
• Lower investments in construction activities
• Low brokerage activities in livestock marketing.

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NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings
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NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings
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NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings
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Nutrition Situation Estimates - Regional Maps
Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2009
Nutrition Situation Estimates, July 2009
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IPC Analysis Templates Overall Statements
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IPC Analysis Templates
Overall Statements
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Summary Progression of Rural IPC Situation

• Key IPC Reference Outcomes
• High Risk to HE (75 of Poor in Togdheer
  Agro-pastoral LZ and Sool-Sanag Plateau)
• Acute malnutrition greater than usual and
  increasing
• Food Access severe entitlement gap, unable to
  meet 2100 kcal ppp day
• Water Access accessed via livelihood asset
  striping
• Destitution/Displacement emerging, diffuse (e.g.
  Sool, Togdheer , Sanaag)
• Coping distress strategies and increasing
• Livelihood Assets accelerated and critical
  depletion
• Main Causes
• 3-4 consecutive seasons of poor rainfall leading
  to
• consecutive seasons of crop failures
• limited livestock production and high livestock
  off-take
• High food and non-food prices, high water and
  fodder prices
• Reduced household income

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Summary Progression of Rural IPC Situation

• Key IPC Reference Outcomes
• AFLC (100 of Poor in North-West Agro-pastoral
  LZ, Hawd, Nugal valey 75 in Golis Guban)
• Acute malnutrition serious to critical
• Food Access lack of entitlement, 2100 kcal ppp
  day via livelihood asset striping
• Water Access accessed via livelihood asset
  striping
• Destitution/Displacement emerging, diffuse
• Coping crisis strategies and increasing
• Livelihood Assets accelerated and critical
  depletion
• Main Causes
• 2 consecutive seasons of poor rainfall leading
  to
• consecutive seasons of crop failures
• limited livestock production and high livestock
  off-take
• High food and non-food prices, high water and
  fodder prices
• Reduced household income

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IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC HE
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IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC HE
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IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC HE
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• THANK YOU