Food Security Analysis Unit Somalia

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Food Security Analysis Unit -Somalia
Post Deyr 08/09 Assessment Analysis January
30, 2009 Nairobi, Kenya
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Presentation Outline

• Post Deyr 08/09 Assessment
• Timeline, Process, Methods, Partners
• Review of Summary Results
• A. Sector Analysis
• Climate
• Civil Insecurity
• Markets
• Agriculture
• Livestock
• Nutrition
• B. Integrated Food Security Phase
  Classifications (IPC)
• Spatial Identification Map
• Affected Populations Estimates - Table
• Phase Classification, Evidence Risk Factors
  To Monitor
• 3. Implications for Response

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FSAU Post Deyr 08/09 AssessmentTimeline,
Process Partners

• Timeline Process
• FSAU/Partner NBI Planning Meetings Dec 10
• Regional Planning Meetings (where possible) Dec
  19-20 (where possible)
• Fieldwork Dec 21 - Jan 1
• Regional Analysis Meetings (where possible) Jan
  2-5
• All Team Analysis Workshop - Nairobi Jan 8 -14
• Finalization of Key Findings - Nairobi Jan
  19-23
• Vetting of Nutrition Results with partners Jan
  22
• Vetting of Integrated Results with partners Jan
  27
• Presentation of Key Findings to FSEDC Jan 30
• Press Release Feb 2
• Release of Exec. Brief of Key Findings Feb 6
• Release of Technical Series Report Feb 26

2. Participating Partners 8 Local Authorities, 9
Government Ministries, 14 Agencies/INGO/NGOs (31
partners, 56 of Gu 08) Local Authorities Gedo
Local Authority, Huddur Local Authority,
Dhusamareb Local Authority, Adado Local
Authority, Abudwak Local Authority, Eldher Local
Authority, Haradhere Local Authority, Elbur
Local Authority Government Ministries Ministry
of Livestock Somaliland, Ministry of Health and
Labour Somaliland, Ministry of Pastoral
Development and Environment Somaliland, NERAD
Somaliland, Ministry of Water and Mineral
Resources Somaliland, Ministry of Land and
Environment Puntland, Ministry of Planning
and International Coordination Puntland , HADMA,
PSAWEN Agencies/INGO/NGOs WFP, UNICEF, ACF, IMC,
MERCY USA, WVI, Concern, SRCS, Solidarites, ASEP,
AMA, NCA, FEWSNET, NAPAD, SADO, OCHA,
VETAID, CARE, HornRelief, CRO, HAVOYOCO
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FSAU Deyr 08/09 AssessmentAccess, Methods,
Tools Data

• Field Access and Sampling
• Normal Field Access
• Enumerators with FSAU Teleconferencing
• Partners and Key Informants
• Nutrition Surveys
• Rapid Food Security Field Assessment Methods
  Individual Interviews, Focus Group Interviews,
  Key Informants, Triangulation, Field Observations
  Surveys Crop Production, Pastoral, Conflict
  Impact, and Urban.
• FSAU Generated Monitoring Data 105 Nodes - Main
  Market Price Data, Somali Livelihoods Indicator
  Monitoring System Data (SLIMS data), Monthly Food
  Security Reports, Livelihood Baseline Data and
  Profiles
• Secondary Data and Information Satellite Imagery
  Data, Import and Export Data, Agency Regional
  Reports
• Nutrition data sources Nutrition surveys, Rapid
  assessments, H-Facilities, Selective feeding
  centers, Dietary studies, Disease Outbreak Data
• Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
  (IPC) Evidence Templates, Map, Population
  Tables

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Deyr 08/09 Assessment Access and Field
Monitoring Locations
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• Sector Analysis
• Summary Results

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Climate Performance of the Season 08/09

• Deyr Seasonal Rains (Oct Dec.)
• Start of Season started on time but ended early
• Temporal and Spatial Distribution Mixed,
• 2nd 3rd decades Nov. dry, Dec. dry
• Near normal rains Most of Bay, Bakool, parts of
  Lower Shabelle, parts of Juba, most of Northwest
  and Northeast (50mm to 100mm)
• Poor rains part of Gedo, Middle Juba, Middle
  Shabelle, central and, parts of Hiran regions.
• Northwest Karan Rain (July Oct.)
• Near average (especially in Gebiley district), to
  below average in some areas in northwest (Hawd of
  Hargeisa, Golis Guban, Agro-pastoral)
• Northwest Hais Rains Northwest (Dec. Feb.)
• Near normal so far in Golis Guban
  (Awdal/Galbeed)
• Floods or Unusual Rains
• Creating opportunities for Off Season Crops
• Unusual Heavy Hagai Rains June-August, L M
  Juba and L. Shabelle,
• Flooding (deliberate natural) early-Nov. , L
  M Juba

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Climate Deyr Season Rainfall
Deyr 08/09 Percent of Normal (Oct 1st - Dec.
30th 08)
Deyr 08/09 Cumulative Rainfall mm (Oct 1st -
Dec. 30th 08)
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Spot NVDI anomaly 3rd dekad Oct., 08
Climate NDVI Anomaly
Spot NDVI anomaly 3rd dekad of Dec. 08
Due to strong dry spell, during the peak of the
season (Nov.), vegetation and crop condition
(NDVI) are largely below normal in the lead up to
the Jilaal season
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NDVI Trends Bakool (Rainfed Crops) and Gedo (El
Barde Pastoral)
Climate
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Climate
Trends in Rain Guage Data Deyr 08/09 compared
to Deyr 07/08 and the LTM
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Civil Insecurity

• Current insecurity is acknowledged to be the
  worst since 1991-1992 Civil War
•  Civil insecurity continues to escalate, in terms
  of increased
• incidents of abductions, killings, armed conflict
  between religious groups
• 183 incidents targeting aid workers and assets
  occurred in the last year 34 killed, 26
  kidnapped and 16 are still in captivity
• Increased military activities and political
  tension assassinations and abductions of
  humanitarian aid workers in Mogadishu, Gedo,
  Galg-adud, and Bay Juba and Shebelle regions
• Difficult access in Hiran, Jubba, parts of Gedo,
  shabelle , Bay and Bakool for increased threat
• In contrast, reduction and complete elimination
  in some areas of illegal checkpoints and easy
  access of travelers and trades
• Economic Impacts
• Disruptions in economic activities, trade,
  market access and transportation networks.
• Variability and unpredictability in commodity and
  market supplies
• Shrinking humanitarian space - many agencies
  have reduced activities or suspended operations.

Source FSAU Protection Cluster
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Civil Insecurity Most Likely Scenario (January -
June. 09)

• Main areas of Risk South Central, with high
  impact areas in Shabelle and Central (see Map
  Risk Areas)
• Direct Impacts urban areas and transportation
  routes in conflict areas, with more limited
  direct impact on rural populations
• Indirect Impact both urban and rural
  populations
• Disruption of trade within the country and across
  regional borders
• Restriction of livestock migration between clans
  boundaries in Central/Hiran, increasing resource
  based conflicts (water, pasture and grazing)
• Continuation of localized short-term displacement
• Further restriction of humanitarian space
• Decline of the social support between livelihoods
  and between wealth groups

• Increased Likelihood of Further Confrontation
  (Clans Religious)
• Increased localized civil insecurity and clan
  tensions
• Resource based conflicts, banditry and marine
  piracy
• Kenyan border closure affecting IDP population
  movement and cross border trade

UN Staff Levels Jan. - Dec. 2008
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Agriculture Deyr 08/09 Cereal Production
Estimates

• Deyr 08/09 cereal production is below PWA
  (1995-07)
• Roughly 44,000 59,000 MT
• 45 - 60 of Deyr -PWA (95-07), 5-year Average
  (03-07) and 07/08
• Most of production is sorghum Sorghum 61 and
  Maize is 39
• Sorghum Production 53 of Deyr PWA (95-07)
  and 43 of 5-year average Deyr (03-07)
• Maize Production 50 of Deyr maize PWA
  (1995-2007) and 67 of Deyr 5-year average
• Other Production Another 30,150 MT of Cereal
• Rice (Jowhar) - 2,500MT
• Off-season Gu Maize (Juba and Shabelle) 20,150MT
  (Sept. Nov. 08)
• Projected Off-season maize (Juba) 7,500MT
  (projected Mar April)
• Regional Differences
• Less than 40 of PWA L/Juba 20, M/Juba 30,
  L/Shabelle 36 and Gedo 37
• Maize production in Lower Middle Shabelle
  combined is 42 of PWA.
• Two areas of relatively good production Bakool
  153 PWA and in Hiran 67 PWA
• Northwest 90 PWA and is 70 07 and 5-year
  average (gt 80 Gabiley)

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Gu07 Cereal Prodction Estimates in Southern
Somalia
Agriculture
Cereal Production in Southern Somalia
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Gu07 Cereal Prodction Estimates in Southern
Somalia
Agriculture
Off-Season Cereal Estimates in Southern Somalia
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AgricultureTrends in Cereal Production, Southern
Somalia
Deyr Cereal Production Trends (1995 2008)
Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 2008)
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Agriculture Regional Cereal Contributions
Maize Production Deyr 08/09 Regional
Contribution
Regional Contribution Deyr 08/09 Cereal
Production

Sorghum Production Deyr 08/09 Regional
Contribution
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Agriculture Northwest Cereal Production
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1. Dolow, Gedo, Sorghum Crop Failure, Dec.
082. Jowhar, Middle Shabelle, Poor Maize
Cobs, Dec. 083. Waranyay Village, Tieglo,
Bakool, Maize crop failure, Jan. 09
Agriculture Deyr 08/09 Poor Crops
1
2
3
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Agriculture Off Season and Deyr 08/09 Good Crops

1. Ceel Wareegaw, Marka, Lower ShabelleGood
Off-season Maize Crop, Oct. 08 2. Iyowkoyow
Village, Hudur, Bakool Good Maize Crop, Jan.
09 3. Galooley Village, Gabiley, Galbeed Good
Sorghum Harvest, Dec. 08
1
2
3
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Deyr 08/09 Local and Food Aid Cereal Flow Map
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Agriculture Commercial Cereal Import Trends
(2005-2008)

• MT 2008
• 329,000 MT
• 80 of 5-year average

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AgricultureUpdated Annual Cereal Balance Sheet
June 2008 to May 2009
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Agriculture

• Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Terms of Trade

• Regional Trend in
• Cereal Prices (SoSh/SLSH)

Regional Trend in Terms of Trade Cereal to Labor
(kg of cereal/daily wage)
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Livestock
Somalia Rangeland Conditions and Livestock
Migration January 09
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Livestock SectorTrends in Livestock Holdings and
Milk Production
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Livestock SectorTrends in Livestock Holdings and
Milk Production
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Livestock Water Availability
Jariban/Mudug contaminated water in Berkads for
human and livestock consumption Dec. 08
Bari Good Pasture and water, Dec. 08
Galgadud/Adado district Empty Berkads in Hawd
LZ, after four successive seasonal rain failure
Dec. 08
Galgadud Empty Communal Damn, Abudwak, Dec. 08
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Livestock Rangeland and Livestock Conditions
West Golis/Guban Poor browsing conditions on
ground, Dec 08
Galgadud, Dhusamareb Poor rangelands, Dec 08
Central Nugal valley Good Pasture, Dec 08
Coastal area of Galgadud Poor cattle body
conditions, Dec. 08
Togdheer Good camel body conditions, Dec. 08
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Livestock
Trends in Local Goat Cattle Prices
Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality
Goat (SoShSLSh)
Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality
Cattle (SoSh/SLSh)
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Regional Trend in Terms of Trade Cereal to Goat
Livestock
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BerberaBossaso Livestock Exports (Heads) and
Export Quality Goat Prices (US)
Livestock
Trends in Livestock Exports Berbera Bossaso
Total Livestock Exports Compared to 5 year Average
BerberaBossaso Trend in Livestock Exports
(Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US)
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Trends in Exchange Rates
Markets

• Factors Affecting
• Depreciation Since Jan. 07 to Sept 08
• Excessive printing of SoSh
• High demand of USD
• Low remittance
• Lack of confidence in Somali Shilling
• Speculation and expectations
• Appreciation - Short Period (Oct-Dec. 08)
• Significant increase in USD
• Piracy
• Proceeds from livestock sales
• Cessation SOSH printing
• Slowdown of business activities and exports

Monthly Exchange Rates - SoSh and SlSh to USD
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Markets
Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange
Rates
Shabelle Region Trend in Imported Commodity
Prices compared to Exchange Rate

• Factors affecting Commercial Import Prices
• Devaluation of SoSh (Imports expensive)
• Increased Global Prices
• High Importation Costs (Piracy/Fuel/Taxes)
• High Transportation Costs
• Low Supply
• Disrupted Market Activities
• Reduced Trade Flows
• Low Substitute Commodity
• Trade Collusion
• Tariffs and Taxations
• Increased Roadblocks

Central Imported Commodity Prices compared to
Exchange Rate
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Comparison of Rice Price in Mogadishu and
International Asia Markets January 2007 -
December 2008
Markets
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Urban Poor Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB)
Markets
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Markets
Zonal Trends Urban Poor Consumer Price Index
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Nutrition Overview
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Nutrition Information Sources Deyr 08/09 (Oct
Dec)

• Nutrition Surveys
• 17 detailed nutrition surveys conducted (All FSAU
  includes, 13 SMART, 2 LQAS, 2 exhaustive)
• 10 focused on repeating livelihood level surveys
  from 6 and 12 months ago for South Central
• 2 focused on concerning areas in northwest from
  Gu rapid assessments
• 4 focused on IDP populations (Garowe, Bossasso,
  Afgooye Merka)
• 1 focused on vulnerable urban populations
  (Bossasso)
• Rapid Assessments using MUAC (110 sites 10,703
  children 6-59months)
• Predominantly, NW. NE, Hiran, Bay Bakool
• Conducted in 15 urban centres (n1500)
• Conducted in 95 rural settlements (n9205)
• Health Centre Monitoring
• Collected from 100 health centres from all
  regions (irregular in places e.g. Bakool)
• Related Selective Feeding Centre Data
• Information from partners Central, Hiran,
  Bakool, Bay, Juba and Mogadishu more limited
  compared to Gu, due to reduced programming e.g.
  IMC, ACF

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Summary of Key Findings
Northwest Confirmation of deterioration in
Golis Guban from Gu to Very Critical. (Oct),
Improvement in Sool Plateau Hawd, mixed picture
in Nugal, still concerns in protracted IDP and
urban poor
Central Deterioration to Very Critical in Hawd
and Sustained Critical in Addun. Cow pea belt
estimate Serious Hiran insufficient data but
remains likely to be Critical in all livelihoods,
with risk to deteriorate in riverine populations
Northeast Improvement in Kakar and from Serious
to Alert from Gu. Other livelihoods remain stable
from Gu. Concerning sustained Very Critical in
IDP pops.
Bay/ Bakool Insufficient data for both but
existing data (MCH RA SFP) indicating likely
no change from Very Critical in Bakool and
Critical in Bay with risk to deteriorate.
Shabelles Improvement in IDPs and Agropastoral
from Critical to Serious and stable in Riverine
at Serious livelihoods. Likely Very Critical in
Mogadishu.
Gedo Nutrition surveys indicate sustained Very
Critical in Pastoral and Riverine and
deterioration to Very Critical from Critical in
Agropastoral
Juba Survey indicate sustained Serious situation
in Pastoral, improvement from critical to Serious
in Agropastoral and Critical in Riverine. IDP
Kismayo also remain Critical
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Deyr Nutrition Surveys Overview
Crude Mortality Rates Elevated (1-2/10,000/day)
in Golis/Guban, Bossasso IDP, Hawd, Shabelle
Riverine, Juba Riverine Juba Agropastoral
Under 5yrs Mortality Rates Elevated
(2-3-/10,000/day) in Bossasso IDP, Shabelle
Riverine, Juba Riverine Juba Agropastoral
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DeyrGu Nutrition Surveys Comparison
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Summary

• Northwest/ IDP populations
• Overall mixed picture with MUAC data indicating
  very concerning numbers of acutely malnourished
  children in some rural areas, urban and
  protracted IDP populations
• Golis Guban area needs further understanding as
  to why nutrition situation so poor though with
  ongoing response and improving food security
  indicators, likely to improve
• Recovery in Sool and Hawd from Gu
• Nugal mixed picture
• IDP population continue to be most nutritionally
  vulnerable
• More capacity for response with MoHL and local
  NGO present

• South Central
• Overall mixed picture, still high levels of
  nutritional vulnerability but also some
  improvement e.g. Shabelles and stable in other
  area e.g. Juba
• Concern over areas with lack of surveys, Bay
  Bakool Hiran for confirmation of status
• Improvement in parts likely linked to
  humanitarian interventions populations still
  vulnerable
• However significant decreasing humanitarian
  space for agencies to meet to provide programmes,
  fewer partners risk factor for further
  deterioration e.g. Central Bakool

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RISK FACTORS
Poor child feeding care practices are a chronic
problem throughout Somalia, these are exacerbated
when populations are displaced

• Social Care Environment Care practices non
  exclusive breastfeeding, poor complementary
  feeding practices, mother ability to care for
  children, health seeking behaviour exposure to
  disease, inadequate nutritious food intake
• Public Health Environment Unprotected Water and
  poor sanitation facilities, low immunisation
  coverage, poor access to health services
  unmanaged outbreak (displacement)
• Food Insecurity reduced dietary diversity,
  reduced meal frequency

Such as the case in Central Bossasso, AWD
outbreak had direct impact on increased SAM and
mortality
Improving food security indicators in Juba and
Shabelle has shown an impact on improving
nutrition
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Nutrition Situation Estimates - Maps
Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2008
Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2009
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Caseload of Acutely Malnourished Children
Overall numbers of acutely malnourished at
200,000 with 60,000 severe (WHOGS) but still
concentrated in areas of high population density,
such as Shabelles (35) and Central (18)
(200,000 represents 83 of the lt5yrs in Somalia)
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B. Current Food Livelihood Security
Phase ClassificationsSummary Results
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Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase
Classification
Rural IPC Populations July December 2008
Rural IPC Populations January June 2009
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Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase
Classification
Urban and IDP IPC Populations July December 2008
Urban and IDP IPC Populations January June 2009
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Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase
Classification
Rural, Urban and IDP Combined IPC
Populations July December 2008
Rural, Urban and IDP Combined IPC
Populations January June 2009
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Somalia IPC Table Rural, Urban IDP Populations
in Crisis, January - June 2009
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Trends in IPC Populations By Population Group in
Crisis
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IPC Populations (January June 09) Livelihood
and Regional Distributions Rural Populations in
AFLC and HE
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IPC Populations (January June
09) Socio-Economic and Regional Distributions
Urban Populations in AFLC and HE
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Implications for Actions

• Humanitarian Access
• Actions to increase humanitarian space and safety
  to ensure that growing number of populations in
  need, receive assistance
• Emergency Humanitarian Assistance to Save Lives
• Targeted to areas livelihood groups identified
  in HE
• Targeted to areas livelihood groups identified
  in Critical Very Critical Nutrition
• Increased attention to areas where past/current
  needs exceed response
• Scale-up in areas continuing to deteriorate
  (Central, South M. Shabelle, Hiran, N. Gedo)
• IDP and Urban populations identified in HE and
  with high rates of malnutrition
• Emergency Livelihood Support
• Priority both in areas livelihood groups in
  AFLC and HE
• Scale-up of emergency livelihood support to
  enhance capacity of people to cope and to protect
  and prevent the total loss of livelihood assets
• Poor and most vulnerable urban populations that
  are not able to cope with skyrocketing food
  prices and declining purchasing power
• Newly developing areas and livelihood groups in
  AFLC - Golis/Guban pastoral in north

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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary Central
Pastoral
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary
Central Agro-pastoral
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary
Hiiraan Pastoral
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary Hiiraan
Agro-pastoral
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Hiiraan Summary
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary
M.Shabelle Agro-pastoral
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary
M.Shabelle Riverine
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary
L.Shabelle Riverine
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary L.
Shabelle Agro-pastoral
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary
M.Shabelle Agro-pastoral
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary
M.Shabelle Riverine
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary
L.Shabelle Riverine
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary L.
Shabelle Agro-pastoral
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary Gedo
Agrp-pastoral
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary Gedo
Riverine
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary Gedo
Riverine
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary Juba
Agro-pastoral
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Step 1 - Evidence Based Template Summary Juba
Riverine