Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

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Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia
Post Gu 09 Assessment Analysis Central
Regions August 2009
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
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Gu 09 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field
Access and Field Data Locations
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Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and
Income

• Livelihood Groups Main Sources of Food and
  Income
• 4 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd Plateau, Addun,
  Coastal Deeh and Southern Inland Pastoralists
• Primary sources of income of poor sale of
  livestock livestock products
• Primary sources of food of poor purchase
• Primary livelihood asset of poor camel,
  sheep/goat, with cattle being less dominant

Livelihood Zones

• Central Agro-pastoral Livelihood Cowpea, Sheep
  Goats, Camel, Cattle (South Mudug, Galgaduud and
  Middle Shabelle). Farm size is 3-4 Ha and mostly
  reserved for fodder use for own livestock. Cowpea
  Agro-pastoral are more pastoral than
  agriculturalists. Main sources of income sale of
  livestock livestock products, crop sales and
  bush product sales Main source of food
  purchase

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Climate Performance of the Gu 09 Season

• Gu Seasonal Rains (April- June)
• Start of Season started late
• Temporal and Spatial Distribution Ended early,
  erratic, patchy and localized
• Dry in all parts of the regions April(1st 2nd
  dekad), May (2nd 3rd dekad) June (1st , 2nd
  3rd dekad)
• Extremely poor rains Hawd, Addun, Coastal deeh
  and Southern Inland Pastoralists of Galgaduud and
  Mudug Central Agro-pastoral (40-60mm)
• Near Normal rains Localized areas of Cowpea belt
  Livelihood Zone of Elder district

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Climate Vegetation Condition
NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district land cover
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Civil Insecurity

• Civil Security Situation
• Resource based conflict in Xaradheere district
  (August 09) but under control by the elders and
  local authorities.
• Clashes between the Local Militia and Al-shabab
  erupted in Elder district and likely to escalate
  further
• Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security
  Nutrition
• Medium Impact Short-term restrictions on
  movement and trade in Xaradheere following land
  dispute
• High impact and long-term restrictions on
  movements and trade in Elder and Increasing IDP
  due to civil insecurity

Source FSAU Protection Cluster
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Agriculture
Gu 09 Crops complete cowpea crop failure due
to lack of rains
Cowpea crop affected by pests in Elder, July 09

• Agro-pastoralists have experienced successive
  seasons of crop failure due to the following
  reasons
• No rainfall in most of the Cowpea Belt areas
• High pests attack in localized areas of Elder,
  which received near normal rains
• High winds at early stage level wilting the crop
• Sand dunes covering both crops and shallow wells

Crop failure due poor rains in Haradere, July 09
Green Crop affected by worm in Elder, July 09
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Agriculture
Gu 09 Commercial Cereal Flow July 09
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Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices
Terms of Trade

• Regional Trend in
• Cereal Prices
• (Sorghum)

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Labor (sorghum kg /daily wage)
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Agriculture

• Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Terms of Trade

Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Rice)
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Labor ( rice kg /daily wage)
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Livestock
Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration July
09

• Extremely poor performance of Gu 09 season
• Tremendous deterioration of both rangeland and
  water conditions
• Resulting in very poor livestock body
  conditions/production
• Leading to over-stressed and forced abnormal
  migration within the regions

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Livestock Sector
Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
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Livestock
Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices Terms of
Trade
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Goat (rice kg/head)
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Livestock Livestock Body, Water and Pasture
Conditions
Poor camel and pasture in Dhusamareb, , July 09
Emaciated camel body condition in Dhusamareb ,
July 09
Poor cattle body condition in Elder district, ,
July 09
Empty Berked in Abudwak, July 09
Poor pasture and early migration in the coastal
of Hobyo, July 09
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Markets
Imported Commodity Prices, Labour
Rates/Availability

• Factors Affecting Commercial Import Price
  Declines (last six months)
• Declining global prices
• Increased commercial imports
• Appreciated/ Stable SoSh
• Factors Affecting Wage Labor Availability
• Low brokerage activities in livestock marketing
• Increased trade activities

Shabelle Region Trend in Imported Commodity
Prices compared to Exchange Rate
LABOUR WAGE BY MARKET
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Summary of Nutrition Findings
Nutrition
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Nutrition
Nutrition Situation Estimates
Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2009
Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2009
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IPC Analysis Templates
Overall Statements
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IPC Analysis Templates
Overall Statements
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IPCSummary Progression of Rural IPC Situation

• Key IPC Reference Outcomes (HE Hawd 100 Poor
  and 50 Middle Agro-pastoral 100 Poor, 75
  Middle Southern Inland pastoral 100 Poor, 25
  Middle Coastal Deeh 100 Poor, 75 Middle)
• Acute malnutrition Critical in Hawd and Addun
  Pastoral but Serious in Coastal Deeh and Central
  agro-pastoral and increasing
• Food Access Severe entitlement gap, unable to
  meet 2,100 Kcal ppp day
• Water Access Average of 6.6 ltrs ppp day ( human
  usage only)
• Destitution/Displacement Concentration,
  increasing (e.g. Galgaduud and south Mudug)
• Coping Distress strategies and increasing
• Livelihood Assets Near complete irreversible
  depletion or loss of assets
• Main Causes
• 5 Consecutive seasons of rain failure leading to
• consecutive seasons of crop failures
• limited livestock production reproduction and
  high livestock off-take
• High food and non-food prices, high water prices
  and depletion of pasture
• Significant decline of household income

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IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC HE
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IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC HE
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IPCEstimated Urban Population in AFLC HE
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Destitute Pastoral IDPs in Guricel town of
Galgadud region, this photo is taken by FSNAU FA
in May 09
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