Surviving The Information Avalanche

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SurvivingThe Information Avalanche

• Jim Gray
• Microsoft Research
• Talk _at_ Adobe Developers Conference
• 26 April 2004
• http//research.microsoft.com/gray/talks

2
Outline
Yotta Zetta Exa Peta Tera Giga Mega Kilo

• Historical trends imply that in 20 years
• we can store everything in cyberspace.The
  personal petabyte.
• computers will have natural interfacesspeech
  recognition/synthesisvision, object recognition
  beyond OCR
• Implications
• The information avalanche will only get worse.
• The user interface will change less typing,
  more writing, talking, gesturing, more seeing
  and hearing
• Organizing, summarizing, prioritizinginformation
  is a key technology.

We are here
3
Things Have Changed
1956

• IBM 305 RAMAC
• 10 MB disk
• 1M (y2004 )

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The Next 50 years will see MORE CHANGE ops/s/
Had Three Growth Curves 1890-1990
Combination of Hans Moravac Larry Roberts
Gordon Bell WordSizeops/s/sysprice

• 1890-1945
• Mechanical
• Relay
• 7-year doubling
• 1945-1985
• Tube, transistor,..
• 2.3 year doubling
• 1985-2004
• Microprocessor
• 1.0 year doubling

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Constant Cost or Constant Function?

• 100x improvement per decade
• Same function 100x cheaper
• 100x more function for same price

Mainframe
SMP
Constellation
Cluster
Constant Price
Mini
SMP
Constellation
Workstation
Graphics/storage
Lower Price New Category
PDA
Camera/browser
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Growth Comes From NEW Apps

• The 10M computer of 1980 costs 1k today
• If we were still doing the same things,IT would
  be a 0 B/y industry
• NEW things absorb the new capacity

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The Surprise-Free Futurein 20 years.

• 10,000x more power for same price
• Personal supercomputer
• Personal petabyte stores
• Same function for 10,000x less cost.
• Smart dust --the penny PC?
• The 10 peta-op computer (for 1,000).

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10,000x would change things

• Human computer interface
• Decent computer vision
• Decent computer speech recognition
• Decent computer speech synthesis
• Vast information stores
• Ability to search and abstract the stores.

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How Good is HCI Today?

• Surprisingly good.
• Demo of making faces
• http//research.microsoft.com/research/pubs/view.
  aspx?pubid290
• Demo of speech synthesis
• Daisy, Hal
• Synthetic voice
• Speech recognition is improving fast,
• Vision getting better
• Pen computing finally a reality.
• Displays improving fast (compared to last 30
  years)

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Outline
Yotta Zetta Exa Peta Tera Giga Mega Kilo

• Historical trends imply that in 20 years
• we can store everything in cyberspace.The
  personal petabyte.
• computers will have natural interfacesspeech
  recognition/synthesisvision, object recognition
  beyond OCR
• Implications
• The information avalanche will only get worse.
• The user interface will change less typing,
  more writing, talking, gesturing, more seeing
  and hearing
• Organizing, summarizing, prioritizinginformation
  is a key technology.

We are here
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How much information is there?
Yotta Zetta Exa Peta Tera Giga Mega Kilo

• Almost everything is recorded digitally.
• Most bytes are never seen by humans.
• Data summarization, trend detection anomaly
  detection are key technologies
• See Mike Lesk How much information is there
  http//www.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html
• See Lyman Varian
• How much information
• http//www.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how
  -much-info/

Everything! Recorded
All Books MultiMedia
All books (words)
.Movie
A Photo
A Book
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And 90 in Cyberspace Because
Low rent min /byte Shrinks time now or
later Shrinks space here or there Automate
processing knowbots
Point-to-Point OR Broadcast
Immediate OR Time Delayed
Locate Process Analyze Summarize
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MyLifeBits The guinea pig

• Gordon Bell is digitizing his life
• Has now scanned virtually all
• Books written (and read when possible)
• Personal documents (correspondence, memos,
  email, bills, legal,0)
• Photos
• Posters, paintings, photo of things (artifacts,
  medals, plaques)
• Home movies and videos
• CD collection
• And, of course, all PC files
• Recording phone, radio, TV, web pages
  conversations
• Paperless throughout 2002. 12 scanned, 12
  discarded.
• Only 30GB Excluding videos
• Video is 2 TB and growing fast

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Capture and encoding
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I mean everything
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25Kday life Personal Petabyte
1PB
Will anyone look at web pages in 2020?
Probably new modalities media will dominate
then.
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Challenges

• Capture Get the bits in
• Organize Index them
• Manage No worries about loss or space
• Curate/ Annotate atutomate where possible
• Privacy Keep safe from theft.
• Summarize Give thumbnail summaries
• Interface how ask/anticipate questions
• Present show it in understandable ways.

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MemexAs We May Think, Vannevar Bush, 1945

• A memex is a device in which an individual
  stores all his books, records, and
  communications, and which is mechanized so that
  it may be consulted with exceeding speed and
  flexibility
• yet if the user inserted 5000 pages of material
  a day it would take him hundreds of years to fill
  the repository, so that he can be profligate and
  enter material freely

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Too much storage?Try to fill a terabyte in a year
Petabyte volume has to be some form of video.
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How Will We Find Anything?

• Need Queries, Indexing, Pivoting, Scalability,
  Backup, Replication,Online update, Set-oriented
  access
• If you dont use a DBMS, you will implement one!
• Simple logical structure
• Blob and link is all that is inherent
• Additional properties (facets extra
  tables)and methods on those tables
  (encapsulation)
• More than a file system
• Unifies data and meta-data

SQL DBMS
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Photos
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Searching the most useful app?

• Challenge What questions for useful results?
• Many ways to present answers

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(No Transcript)
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Detail view
25
Resource explorerAncestor (collections),
annotations, descendant preview panes turned on
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Synchronized timelines with histogram guide
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Value of media depends on annotations

• Its just bits until it is annotated

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System annotations provide base level of value

• Date 7/7/2000

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Tracking usage even better

• Date 7/7/2000. Opened 30 times, emailed to 10
  people (its valued by the user!)

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Get the user to say a little something is a big
jump

• Date 7/7/2000. Opened 30 times, emailed to 10
  people. BARC dim sum intern farewell Lunch

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Getting the user to tell a story is the ultimate
in media value

• A story is a layout in time and space
• Most valuable content (by selection, and by being
  well annotated)
• Stories must include links to any media they use
  (for future navigation/search transclusion).
• Cf MovieMaker Creative Memories PhotoAlbums

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Value of media depends on annotations
Its just bits until it is annotated

• Auto-annotate whenever possible e.g. GPS cameras
• Make manual annotation as easy as possible. XP
  photo capture, voice, photos with voice, etc
• Support gang annotation
• Make stories easy

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80 of data is personal / individual. But, what
about the other 20?

• Business
• Wall Mart online 1PB and growing.
• Paradox most transaction systems
• Have to go to image/data monitoring for big data
• Government
• Government is the biggest business.
• Science
• LOTS of data.

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Instruments CERN LHCPeta Bytes per Year

• Looking for the Higgs Particle
• Sensors 1000 GB/s (1TB/s 30 EB/y)
• Events 75 GB/s
• Filtered 5 GB/s
• Reduced 0.1 GB/s 2 PB/y
• Data pyramid 100GB 1TB 100TB 1PB 10PB

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Information Avalanche

• Both
• better observational instruments and
• Better simulations
• are producing a data avalanche
• Examples
• Turbulence 100 TB simulation then mine the
  Information
• BaBar Grows 1TB/day 2/3 simulation Information
  1/3 observational Information
• CERN LHC will generate 1GB/s 10 PB/y
• VLBA (NRAO) generates 1GB/s today
• NCBI only ½ TB but doubling each year, very
  rich dataset.
• Pixar 100 TB/Movie

Image courtesy of C. Meneveau A. Szalay _at_ JHU
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Q Where will the Data Come From?A Sensor
Applications

• Earth Observation
• 15 PB by 2007
• Medical Images Information Health Monitoring
• Potential 1 GB/patient/y ? 1 EB/y
• Video Monitoring
• 1E8 video cameras _at_ 1E5 MBps ? 10TB/s ? 100
  EB/y ? filtered???
• Airplane Engines
• 1 GB sensor data/flight,
• 100,000 engine hours/day
• 30PB/y
• Smart Dust ?? EB/y

http//robotics.eecs.berkeley.edu/pister/SmartDus
t/
http//www-bsac.eecs.berkeley.edu/shollar/macro_m
otes/macromotes.html
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The Big Picture
Experiments Instruments
facts
questions
?
facts
Other Archives
answers
facts
Literature
facts
Simulations
The Big Problems

• Data ingest
• Managing a petabyte
• Common schema
• How to organize it?
• How to reorganize it
• How to coexist with others

• Query and Vis tools
• Support/training
• Performance
• Execute queries in a minute
• Batch query scheduling

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FTP - GREP

• Download (FTP and GREP) are not adequate
• You can GREP 1 MB in a second
• You can GREP 1 GB in a minute
• You can GREP 1 TB in 2 days
• You can GREP 1 PB in 3 years.
• Oh!, and 1PB 3,000 disks
• At some point we need indices to limit
  search parallel data search and analysis
• This is where databases can help
• Next generation technique Data Exploration
• Bring the analysis to the data!

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The Speed Problem

• Many users want to search the whole DBad hoc
  queries, often combinatorial
• Want 1 minute response
• Brute force (parallel search)
• 1 disk 50MBps 1M disks/PB 300M/PB
• Indices (limit search, do column store)
• 1,000x less equipment 1M/PB
• Pre-compute answer
• No one knows how do it for all questions.

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Next-Generation Data Analysis

• Looking for
• Needles in haystacks the Higgs particle
• Haystacks Dark matter, Dark energy
• Needles are easier than haystacks
• Global statistics have poor scaling
• Correlation functions are N2, likelihood
  techniques N3
• As data and computers grow at same rate, we can
  only keep up with N logN
• A way out?
• Relax notion of optimal (data is fuzzy, answers
  are approximate)
• Dont assume infinite computational resources or
  memory
• Combination of statistics computer science

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Analysis and Databases

• Much statistical analysis deals with
• Creating uniform samples
• data filtering
• Assembling relevant subsets
• Estimating completeness
• censoring bad data
• Counting and building histograms
• Generating Monte-Carlo subsets
• Likelihood calculations
• Hypothesis testing
• Traditionally these are performed on files
• Most of these tasks are much better done inside a
  database
• Move Mohamed to the mountain, not the mountain to
  Mohamed.

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DataGrid Computing

• Store exabytes twice (for redundancy)
• Access them from anywhere
• Implies huge archive/data centers
• Supercomputer centers become super data centers
• Examples Google, Yahoo!, Hotmail,BaBar, CERN,
  Fermilab, SDSC,

43
Outline
Yotta Zetta Exa Peta Tera Giga Mega Kilo

• Historical trends imply that in 20 years
• we can store everything in cyberspace.The
  personal petabyte.
• computers will have natural interfacesspeech
  recognition/synthesisvision, object recognition
  beyond OCR
• Implications
• The information avalanche will only get worse.
• The user interface will change less typing,
  more writing, talking, gesturing, more seeing
  and hearing
• Organizing, summarizing, prioritizinginformation
  is a key technology.

We are here