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Unit IIIClimate Change Adaptation

• 3.1 Climate change Concept, scenario, risk and
  vulnerability
• 3.2 Cultural theory Cultural Risk Theory (CRT)
  on climate change adaptation
• 3.3 Behavioral theory Prospect Theory,
  mitigation and adaptation to climate change
• 3.4 Global and national efforts on climate change
  adaptation

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3.1 Climate change Concept, scenario, risk and
vulnerability

• Our climate is changing.
• Climate Change has been undoubtedly the most
  illustrious environmental issue since late 20
  century.
• Climate change refers to any changes in climate
  over time, whether due to natural variability or
  as a result of human activity.

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Weather vs. Climate

• Weather Atmospheric conditions (temperature,
  rainfall/precipitation, etc) at a specific
  point of time.
• Climate Atmospheric conditions (temperature,
  rainfall/precipitation, etc) of a region over a
  long period of time.

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• History of Climate Change discourse reveals that
  from a purely scientific concern it has turned
  into a public agenda that is nowadays more
  inclined to be development problem.
• Transformations have brought about a completely
  new paradigm every time.

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• The climate change phenomenon refers to seasonal
  changes over a long period with respect to the
  growing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the
  atmosphere.

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• The effects of anthropogenic human-caused
  climate change range from more frequent and
  severe droughts to snowstorms and extreme winter
  weather
• Reliable temperature records began in 1850 and
  our world is now about one degree Celsius hotter
  than it was in the period between 1850 and 1900
  commonly referred to as the "pre-industrial"
  average.

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• The change is even more visible over a shorter
  time period compared to average temperatures
  between 1961 and 1990, 2017 was 0.68 degrees
  warmer, while 2016 was 0.8 degrees warmer.

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• Recent studies have shown that human activities
  since the beginning of the industrial revolution
  manifested in fossil fuel consumption for power
  generation, land deforestation for agriculture,
  and urban expansion have contributed to an
  increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide
  in the atmosphere by as much as 40,

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• UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on
  Climate Change) defined Climate Change as "a
  change of climate which is attributed directly or
  indirectly to human activity that alters the
  composition of the global atmosphere and which is
  in addition to natural climate variability
  observed over comparable time periods.

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• However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
  Change(IPCC) definition of Climate Change
  includes change due to natural variability
  alongside human activity.
• IPCC has described anthropogenic climate change
  as inevitable in view of the numerous changes
  observed in the temperature of the atmosphere,
  oceans, and sea ice, in addition to some
  extensive changes in the climate cycle over the
  course of the 20th century.

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• Australian Government, in its website, described
  Climate Change- our climate is changing, largely
  due to the observed increases in human produced
  greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases absorb heat
  from the sun in the atmosphere and reduce the
  amount of heat escaping into space. This extra
  heat has been found to be the primary cause of
  observed changes in the climate system over the
  20th century.

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Thus, in the environmental discourse different
stakeholders have characterized Climate Change as
mainly the change in modern climate augmented by
human activities.

• Climate change is a change in the statistical
  distribution of weather patterns when that change
  lasts for an extended period of time (i.e.,
  decades to millions of years).
• Climate change may refer to a change in average
  weather conditions, or in the time variation of
  weather within the context of longer-term average
  conditions.

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Aspects of Climate Change and perceived
implications.
Climatic Features Climatic Features Implication of change
Global warming GHG concentration Emission of green house gases through industrialization, travelling etc is increasing the GHG concentration in the atmosphere.
Global warming Change in world temperature GHG concentration along with some other issues leads to warming the world. Earth has warmed since 1880, most of this warming occurred since 1970s
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Being central to the issue predominantly, Global
warming brings about change in following
different features of human environment.
Climatic Features Implication of Change
Ozone layer depletion A slow, steady decline of about 4 per decade in the total volume of ozone in Earth's stratosphere (the ozone layer) since the late 1970s is estimated which is likely to bring health implications (different cancerous diseases), augmenting extreme weather events (desertification, drought) through opening the curtain that was protecting earth from hazardous sun rays

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Shrinking ice sheets Greenland lost 150 km3 to 250 km3 of ice per year between 2002 and 2006 and Antarctica lost about 152 km3 of ice between 2002 and 2005. This on the other hand contributing to the next problem sea level rise
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Rise in Sea Level Global sea level rose about 17 cm (6.7 in) in the last century. Continual increase is very likely to inundate many island states, low-lying delta regions leaving their population having no land to Inhabit
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Ocean Acidification Since 1750 the CO content of the Earths oceans has been increasing and it is currently increasing about 2 billion tons per year which has increased ocean acidity by about 30
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Warming Oceans With the top 700 m (about 2300 ft) of ocean showing warming of 0.16?C since 1969 due to absorbed increased heat of the Earth. These two changes are likely to bring massive change/destruction in ocean habitations
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• Factors Affecting Climate Change

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Factors affecting climate change

• Climate change is caused by both natural as well
  as human activities factors such as biotic
  processes, variations in solar radiation received
  by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions

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Human Activities

• Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, including
  water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, and
  nitrous oxide, absorb heat energy and emit it in
  all directions (including downwards), keeping
  Earths surface and lower atmosphere warm. Adding
  more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere enhances
  the effect, making Earths surface and lower
  atmosphere even warmer

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The consequences of changing the natural
atmospheric greenhouse are difficult to predict,
but certain effects seem likely

• On average, Earth will become warmer. Some
  regions may welcome warmer temperatures, but
  others may not.
• Warmer conditions will probably lead to more
  evaporation and precipitation overall, but
  individual regions will vary, some becoming
  wetter and others dryer.

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• A stronger greenhouse effect will warm the oceans
  and partially melt glaciers and other ice,
  increasing sea level. Ocean water also will
  expand if it warms, contributing further to sea
  level rise
• Meanwhile, some crops and other plants may
  respond favorably to increased atmospheric CO2,
  growing more vigorously and using water more
  efficiently. At the same time, higher
  temperatures and shifting climate patterns may
  change the areas where crops grow best and affect
  the makeup of natural plant communities

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• The carbon cycle includes the movement of carbon
  dioxide
• into and out of our atmosphere
• between the atmosphere, plants and other living
  organisms through photosynthesis, respiration and
  decay
• between the atmosphere and the top of the oceans.
• chemical weathering and limestone and fossil fuel
  formation decrease atmospheric carbon dioxide
  levels, whereas volcanoes return carbon to the
  atmosphere

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The two main human impacts on the carbon cycle
are

• Burning of fossil fuels.
• Land use and land cover change (e.g.
  deforestation)

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• When the quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere
  increases, the temperature of the Earth rises.
• This in turn would contribute to a warming of the
  oceans. Warm oceans are less able to absorb CO2
  than cold ones, so as the temperature rises, the
  oceans release more CO2 into the atmosphere,
  which in turn causes the temperature to rise
  again.

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What are the consequences of too much carbon
cycling?

• When there is too much carbon available, the
  Earths processes are no longer in balance.
  Increased carbon in the atmosphere increases the
  amount of heat that is kept from escaping into
  space. This results in a change in global climate
  patterns. When there is too much carbon in the
  oceans, ocean acidification occurs, meaning that
  the pH of the ocean becomes more acidic. Living
  organisms cannot tolerate the more acidic water
  their shells dissolve and cannot be rebuilt.

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Plate tectonics and volcanic eruptions

• Over time, plate tectonic processes cause
  continents to move to different positions on the
  globe.
• The movement of the plates also causes volcanoes
  and mountains to form and these too can
  contribute to a change in climate.
• Movement of plate tectonics causes a change in
  the ocean currents and in turn generates more
  heat. Shifting of these tectonic plates result in
  the creation of the volcanic eruptions increases
  the degree of carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulphur
  dioxide (SO2) in the atmosphere that also leads
  to a rise in the temperature levels.

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Climate Change Impacts

• climate change can alter rainfall, influence crop
  yields, affect human health, cause changes to
  forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our
  energy supply. Climate-related impacts are
  occurring across the country and over many
  sectors of our economy.

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Impacts by sector

• Agriculture
• Coast
• Ecosystem
• Energy
• Forests
• Human health
• Society
• Transportation
• Water resources

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Climate change scenario Impacts of climate
change in Nepal

• Current and Near term Impacts
• Glaciers and mountain snow are melting more
  rapidly which are the continuous source of
  drinking and irrigational water for downstream.
• Many parts of the region have suffered a
  reduction in food production due to reduced water
  availability, increases in temperature and a
  reduction in rain fall.
• Biodiversity has been decreasing with emergence
  of alien species and expected to continue in
  greater pace in days to come.

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• The incidence of diarrheal diseases and other
  infectious disease such cholera, hepatitis,
  malaria and dengue fever is increasing due to
  severe floods, rainfall and droughts in
  combination.
• Livelihood of the poor depending upon nature for
  their subsistence are ill affected due to
  drought, flash floods and unprecedented natural
  disasters.

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• Long term Impacts
• Agriculture and food security 34.7 GDP of Nepal
  is from Agriculture (DOA 2011). Overall crop
  yield (wheat, maize and rice) could decrease in
  Nepal by up to 30 by the end of this century.
• Water resources Projections for Nepal suggest a
  20 loss of snow and glaciated area with 1 degree
  Celsius increase in temperature increasing
  likelihood glacial lake outburst flooding (GLOF).

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• Ecosystem and biodiversity Tropical wet forest
  and warm temperate rain forest will disappear,
  and cool temperate vegetation will turn into warm
  temperate vegetation. Currently, there is no rain
  forest in tropical and subtropical regions in the
  Nepal, but a doubling in carbon dioxide would see
  an emergence of rain forest in these regions.

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• Human health and migration Increasing
  temperatures and floods combined are likely to
  yield a spread in pathogen and insect borne
  disease and exposure of communities to diseased
  that they have no experience of or immunity to.
  Human casualties and migration following extreme
  weather events is also to be anticipated.
• Source IPCC

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• What is extreme events?
• there are various ways to characterize extreme
  events. A widely used concept is return
  period. This is the frequency at which the event
  occur. In IPCC report, an event occurring once in
  20 years has been designated an extreme event.

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Climate change and extreme events

• Extreme events are unusual and/or unexpected
  nature of extreme weather that makes these events
  significance to society.
• Extreme events are generally a physical
  phenomenon.
• Many available information shows that the
  occurrence of extreme weather events has
  increased in terms of frequency, intensity and
  duration.

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Some Extreme phenomena are

• Extreme warm and cold days
• Hottest days
• Heat waves
• Heavy precipitation
• Tropical cyclone and storms activity
• Droughts
• Extreme coastal high waters
• Patterns of natural variability (unpredictability)

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Expected impacts of Climate Change in South Asia

• Due to its topography, location and climate,
  South Asia is extremely exposed to natural
  hazards such cyclones, floods, droughts and
  landslides.
• According to the World Bank report, South Asia
  Shared Views on Development and Climate Change,
  over 50 percent of South Asians more than 750
  million people have been affected by at least
  one natural disaster in the past 20 years.
• They are least able to cope with disasters, live
  in areas most at risk to hazards and generally
  have the least information, knowledge and
  resources to reduce their risk most vulnerable

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Effects on Human Health

• Climate change affects the social and
  environmental determinants of health clean air,
  safe drinking water, sufficient food and secure
  shelter.
• Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected
  to cause approximately 250 000 additional death
  per year, from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea
  and heat stress.
• Areas with weak health infrastructure mostly in
  developing countries will be the least able to
  cope without assistance to prepare and respond.

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• Asthma, respiratory allergies and airway disease
• Cancer
• Cardiovascular disease and stroke
• Foodborne disease and nutrition
• Heat-related morbidity (illness) and mortality
  (death)
• Mental health and stress-related disorders
• Vector borne (malaria)
• Water borne disease

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Gender and Climate Change

• Impacts of climate change, such as drought,
  floods, extreme weather events and reduced food
  and water security affects women and men
  differently with the poorest being more
  vulnerable.
• 70 percent of the worlds poor are women and are
  more affected
• Women play crucial role in climate change
  adaptation and mitigation actions

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Effects on Human settlement and Infrastructure

• The insurance business is the first in line to
  be affected by climate change it could
  bankrupt the industry.
• Franklin Nutter,
• President of the Reinsurance Association of
  America

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Human Settlements

• According to most scenarios, climate change will
  place added demands on urban infrastructures
  Accelerate urbanization (migration).
• Inhabitants will need to migrate to mainland
  interior areas to escape flooding migrating
  populations would create infrastructure problems
  for regions suddenly facing so large numbers of
  climate change-immigrants.
• Additional infrastructure more housing, medical
  facilities, other essential urban services.

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Impact on Mountain Area

• Rising temperature disturb the balance of snow,
  ice and water, threatening millions of mountain
  people unpredictability.
• Melting glaciers
• Frequency of avalanches
• Risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF)
• Soot (black carbon)

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Infrastructure Transportation

• The relative impact of climate change on human
  infrastructure will vary by region
• Climate change will require additional
  investments in transportation from highways to
  rail links.
• Increase in precipitation landslides and road
  erosion higher maintenance costs.
• Threatening of long distance power and pipelines
  due to landslides and slope instability
• Melting of ice or snow

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Infrastructure Industry

• Shortage of water resources adversely impact
  different industries.
• Agro-industry in developing countries requires
  large amount of power and is sensitive to the
  supply and cost of energy
• Many less developed countries heavily dependent
  on subsistence food and fiber production, are
  particularly vulnerable to climate change.
• Tourism, important to the economies of many
  countries will be impacted by climate change
  more frequent periods of heat, cold and
  precipitation.

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Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability

• The terms VULNERABILITY and RISK are often used
  to describe the potential (adverse) effects of
  climate change on ecosystems, infrastructure,
  economic sectors, social groups, communities and
  regions.
• Vulnerability and risk has no universally
  accepted definition, and there is no single
  correct or best conceptualization that would
  suite all assessment context (i.e. each community
  has its own definitions). It is therefore
  necessary to specify clearly which terms are used
  in a specific context.

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• Risk is used here to designate the potential of
  shocks and stresses to affect, in different ways,
  the state of systems, communities, households or
  individuals.
• Probability, uncertainty (when probabilities of
  occurrence or even nature of impacts are
  unknown), severity, economic scale, time scales
  and direct and indirect costs should be taken
  into account.

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• Vulnerability is the propensity or
  predisposition to be adversely affected (IPCC,
  2012).
• It is a dynamic concept, varying across temporal
  and spatial scales and depends on economic,
  social, geographic, demographic, cultural,
  institutional, governance and environmental
  factors.
• Measuring vulnerability is complex as it needs
  to be considered across various dimensions.

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• The impact of a risk depends on the shock itself
  and on the system to which it is applied.
• Depending on its vulnerability, the system will
  be more or less affected by the same shock.
• Vulnerability to climate change is a complex and
  dynamic phenomenon involving both social and
  physical/environmental aspects.

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• VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) is the
  degree to which a system is susceptible to, and
  unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate
  change, including climate variability and
  extremes.
• Vulnerability is a function of the character,
  magnitude and rate of climate change and
  variation to which a system is EXPOSED, its
  SENSITIVITY, and its ADAPTIVE CAPACITY.

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• VULNERABILITY function exposure ()
  sensitivity () adaptive capacity (-)
• VULNERABILITY potential impact (sensitivity x
  exposure) adaptive capacity

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• EXPOSURE (IPCC) the presence of people,
  livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental
  functions, services, and resources,
  infrastructure, or economic, social or cultural
  assets in places and settings that could be
  adversely affected.
• SENSITIVITY (IPCC) the degree to which a system
  or species is affected, either adversely or
  beneficially, by climate variability or change.
  The effect may be direct (e.g. a change in crop
  beneficially, by climate variability or change.
  The effect may be direct (e.g. a change in crop
  yield in response to a change in the mean, range
  or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g.
  damages caused by an increase in the frequency of
  coastal flooding due to sea level rise).

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• POTENTIAL IMPACT (IPCC) impacts of climate
  change are the effects of climate change on
  nature (e.g. water resources, biodiversity, soil,
  etc) and human systems (e.g. agriculture, health,
  tourism, etc). Potential impacts are all impacts
  that may occur given a projected change in
  climate, without considering adaptation.
• ADAPTIVE CAPACITY (IPCC) the ability of a system
  to adjust to climate change (including climate
  variability and extremes) to moderate potential
  damages, to take advantages of opportunities, or
  to cope with the consequences.

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• Adaptive capacity, the capacity of a system to
  adapt in order to be less vulnerable, is a
  dynamic notion. It is shaped by the interaction
  of environmental, social, cultural, political and
  economic forces that determine vulnerability
  through exposures and sensitivities, and the way
  the systems components are internally reacting
  to shocks.
• In fact, it has two dimensions adaptive capacity
  to shocks (coping ability) and adaptive capacity
  to change. The first dimension is related to the
  coping ability (absorption of the shock), the
  second dimension is related to time
  (adaptability, management capacity).