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Alaska PRIDE wind/wave climatology
workshop Motivation, results
David E. Atkinson International Arctic Research
Center / Atmospheric Sciences Department Universit
y of Alaska Fairbanks James Partain National
Weather Service, Alaska Region Headquarters NOAA
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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Objective

• Improve operational capacity for emergency
  response

NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
3
Justifications for this work

• Alaska gets powerful storms understanding
  required
• Important link with Pacific region many are
  recurving tropical cyclones
• Drives wave/surge activity erosion
• Impact on coastal communities
• villages
• Economic importance of Anchorage for AK, US
• Impacts on natural systems, some critical
• ground thermal regime (ice)
• marine productivity
• Contribution of knowledge
• US positioning for international science efforts
• Increasing public awareness
• Increasing political interest/activity

NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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Justification Alaska gets strong storms

• Historically,
• Deepest recorded SLP 925 mb
• Strongest surface sustained winds 139mph
• October 2004 941 mb storm (another 946 mb storm
  1 week later)
• Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic (using only
  pressure)

NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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Bering Sea storm October 19, 2004
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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Bering Sea storm October 19, 2004
SLP
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Justification Alaska coastal communities are
impacted
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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Mechanisms for coastal impacts
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of
Alaska Fairbanks
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Impacts communities and infrastructure
David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of
Alaska Fairbanks
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Impacts Alaska - communities
The following communities in AK are threatened
Bluff and seawall defense at Homer, AK Picture
from High School project by Monica PetersNat
SeamanJoleena BaughKirsten Baltz 2003, Homer
High School
Homer (Katchemak Bay/Kenai) Newtok
(Kenai) Shishmaref (Seward) Point Hope (North
Slope /Lisburne Peninsula) Kivalina (North
Slope/Lisburne Peninsula) Barrow (North Slope)
David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of
Alaska Fairbanks
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Impacts Alaska - communities
Figure given to me by Tohru Saito, IARC
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Impacts Alaska - communities
Shishmaref bluff retreat
Photos by Julie Baltar , story in the Nome
Nugget Shishmaref, AK
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
- ecological systems threatened - way of life
threatened
David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of
Alaska Fairbanks
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NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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Justification Alaska storms are expensive

• Consider Bering Strait storm cost per capita
• Cost of Bering Strait storm - 30 M in damages
• 50,000 residents in w. Alaska
• 600 per capita
• Now contrast with a comparable eastern seaboard
  storm

NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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Hurricane Floyd, Sept. 1999 cat. 4 storm, c2 at
landfall
- similar central, similar path (along the
seaboard)
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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North Carolina 51 deaths 7000 homes destroyed
17,000 homes uninhabitable 56,000 homes damaged
most roads east of I-95 flooded Tar River crests
24 feet above flood stage over 1500 people
rescued from flooded areas over 500,000
customers without electricity at some point
10,000 people housed in temporary shelters much
of Duplin and Greene Counties under water severe
agricultural damage throughout eastern NC
"Nothing since the Civil War has been as
destructive to families here," says H. David
Bruton, the state's Secretary of Health and Human
Services...."The recovery process will be much
longer than the water-going-down process"
Wilmington reports new 24-hour station rainfall
record (128 year record) with 13.38 inches and
over 19 inches for the event. South Carolina 1
death over 1000 homes flooded Myrtle Beach
reports 24-hour rainfall of 14.00 inches.
Virginia 4 deaths over 280,000 customers
without electricity at some point 9-12 feet of
water in downtown Franklin 5000 homes damaged.
Maryland 1 death over 250,000 customers
without electricity at some point. Pennsylvania
8 deaths over 410,000 customers without
electricity at some point over 4000 homeless
2000 homes and businesses damaged. New Jersey 4
deaths over 650,000 customers without
electricity at some point. New York 2 deaths
over 80,000 customers without electricity at some
point. Delaware 2 deaths over 200,000
customers without electricity at some point. The
following states have reported one death each
Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts and
Vermont.
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• Hurricane Floyd
• 5 B in damages (not counting evacuating 2
  million people)
• 25 M residents in affected path
• 200 per capita
• several times less than the Bering Sea storm
• Thus AK storms can have more severe impact on the
  populace at a per capita/local level

NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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Justification Current/growing economic
importance of Anchorage

• Airport important international air cargo hub
• 1 Hong Kong Intl
• 2 Memphis Intl
• 3 Tokyo Narita
• 4 Anchorage Ted Stevens International
• 5 Seoul Incheon
• (source Air Cargo News, 2005)
• Port of Anchorage beginning a large re-fit
• plus new (hoped for) rail link into Canada
• will make Anchorage competitive with LA, Seattle

NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
20
Justification Other impacts of AK storms
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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Impact on ground thermal regime
Temperature C
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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Impact on marine productivity - EOS article
about Isabel and mixing - Arctic waters very
productive, often stratified potential large
effect
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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Justification Interfacing with large projects
(science oriented)
This work will better position the US to
integrate with large projects such as LOICZ
(Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone)
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
24
Justification Increasing general public
awareness (public oriented) - Better
positioned to respond to public requests for
information/products

• Example
• Discover article that mentions AK village
  problems
• (readership gt 1M 800K for Scientific American)

NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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Justification Increasing political awareness and
scientific activity at home and internationally
policy development
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of
Alaska Fairbanks
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Justification Increasing political awareness and
scientific activity at home and internationally
Year
Report/project/proposal call
Agency
Focus region
Senate bill S-50 Tsunami mitigation and
preparedness act
Circum-arctic / Alaska
Synthesis of Arctic System Science
NSF OPP
2005
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
27
Coastal Dynamics as a Function of Environmental
Forcing and Coastal Geology/Geocryology
Environmental Sustainability Workshop UA
Anchorage, January 7, 2005
Figure by Volker Rachold, Alfred Wegener
Institute, Potsdam, Germany
David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of
Alaska Fairbanks
IASC Council Meeting at ASSW 2003 (Kiruna, Sweden)
28
PRIDE Alaska Towards an operational wind/wave
climatology
Work completed towards FY05 as James showed us
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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(No Transcript)
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Work underway by O. Francis-Chythlook

• Literature search and review for AK (and
  elsewhere) material relevant to this project
• Identification of wave/ice models
• Preparation of North American Regional
  Reanalysis (NARR) data to begin climatology work

NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
etc. 35 identified Current version of chart
posted
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Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop
Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005
Essential goal Assess capacity available to
bring to bear on this project

• Expert solicitation
• Across discipline boundaries
• Across organizational boundaries
• secondary requirement avoid duplication

NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
32
Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop
Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005

• Organizations, disciplines represented
• NOAA management, ops HI/AK, sea ice, data, wave
  modeling, coastal
• CIFAR, JIMAR
• USACE wave modeling, coastal engineering
• Navy ocean modeling
• USGS coastal geology
• MMS current modeling
• UH UA Fairbanks, Anchorage NCSU atmospheric,
  oceanographic, engineering
• State of AK Transport, planning, emergency
  preparedness
• AOOS, Arctic Coastal Dynamics project, Kachemak
  Bay Research Reserve, Arctic Research Commission,
  Private consultants scientific, permafrost,
  erosion modeling, ecosystem, observing networks

NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
33
Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop
Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005
NOAA Climate Office
NWS Alaska, Pacific regions NCEP EMC, CPC
NOS Coastal Services Center Pacific Services
Center
NESDIS/ NCDC
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
34
(No Transcript)
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Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop
Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005
wave modeling
NOAA Marine Modeling and Applications Branch
USACE Coastal Hydraulics Lab
Navy Naval Research Labs
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
36
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop
Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005
Data issues
challenges
Gaps terrestrial, marine
Storage/ Management
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
38
122 Coastal Sea Storm Threatened Communities
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
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Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop
Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005
Science issues
Wave model selection, integration
Permafrost
Sea ice
Coastal classification
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
40
ACD Coastal Classification
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• (C) Coastal Data
• Shoreline Segments (Polygons)
• (ACD data)

V. Rachold -Arctic Coastal Dynamcis (ACD) Alaskan
Coastal Climatologies Wind and Wave Hindcast
Workshop 2-3 August 2005, Anchorage
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• (C) Coastal Data
• Backshore Elevation (m)
• (ACD data)

V. Rachold -Arctic Coastal Dynamcis (ACD) Alaskan
Coastal Climatologies Wind and Wave Hindcast
Workshop 2-3 August 2005, Anchorage
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• (C) Coastal Data
• Coastal ChangeRate (m)
• (ACD data)

V. Rachold -Arctic Coastal Dynamcis (ACD) Alaskan
Coastal Climatologies Wind and Wave Hindcast
Workshop 2-3 August 2005, Anchorage
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V. Rachold -Arctic Coastal Dynamcis (ACD) Alaskan
Coastal Climatologies Wind and Wave Hindcast
Workshop 2-3 August 2005, Anchorage
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Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop
Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005
Discovered opportunities
Links to HI data management expertise
Interim Low hanging fruit
NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting East-West Center,
Honolulu, August 8-9, 2005
46
Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop
Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005
Stakeholders
Short-term reactive Days - flood, critical
systems
Projection (IPCC) decades - community tenable?
Mid-term proactive weeks-months - lay in suppies
Long term planning years - line on a map
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Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop
Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005

• Upshot
• gt Sense of momentum, agency commitment
• gt Solid links w Pacific region identified
• broader application of coastal dynamics
  framework export and import
• John Marra, partner with Pacific data management
  and potential PRIDE product team
• Draw guidance from established PRiMO risk
  management template (e.g. cultural
  context/sensitivity, exporting templates)
• Plugged into IOOS network
• improvement of Pacific obs network (IPRC) will
  assist AK storm warning
• gt Objectives, results at various time frames
  identified
• - Student opportunities
• gt Tangible products emerging
• gt Getting IPRCs sister organization, IARC, on
  board

48
Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop
Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005
gt Forward FY06 define stakeholder needs,
model selection, data analysis for hindcast work,
implementation site prioritizing gt Develop data
management proposal with PSC/IPRC gt FY07 and
beyond based on hindcast work develop a
demonstration operational product implement in
the IPY continue filling out products, sites,
transfer coastal system to HI, Guam, AF
territories
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This project Longer time frame
50
Beyond FY06

• FY 07-08
• Test results of the hind-cast modeling for
  potential use in near shore wind/wave
• modeling and forecasting.
• Design/conduct demonstration project for
  selected study region (s).
• Deliver prototype data and user tailored
  applications/information.
• Identify other decision support products and
  services.
• Complete development and produce AK coastal
  wind/wave climatologies
• maps to include sea level, near shore sea ice,
  and permafrost conditions.
• Provide user web-based access to AK
  climatologies and associated maps.
• FY 09 and Beyond
• Expand routine operational processes for use in
  future AK Coastal Climatologies.
• Monitor current conditions and improve
  predictions and projections
• for use by policy makers and developing
  mitigation plans.

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Fin
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Some needs

• Establish definition of storm
• Strong winds? Flooding potential? Erosion
  potential?

• Establish scales and scale boundaries
• Deep ocean vs near shore
• Defines types of models that can be considered

• Determine pilot project locations
• Economic/ecological impacts
• Sea ice considerations
• Data considerations

• Data

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What is PRIDE?

• Pacific Regional Integrated Data Enterprise
• Improve capacity and delivery of
  socially-relevant products
• Better integrative use of data
• Focus on Pacific region, esp. AK, HI, AF

54
Workshop deliverables
Example of a user-oriented hindcast
AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel
Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005
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Bathymetry data USACE/Navy partner, NOAA test
AK PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop Hotel
Captain Cook, Anchorage, August 2-3, 2005
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(No Transcript)
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Workshop deliverables
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Coastal erosion

• Alteration of the coastal regime
• gt usually involves removal of material
• gt can include reworking shifting bars or spits
• gt coastline dynamics and morphodynamics
• gt can include flooding

• Implications
• gt Mineral sediments and carbon moved to ocean
• gt Terrestrial, marine ecology impacted
• gt Human habitation, infrastructure, way of life
  disrupted

Environmental Sustainability Workshop UA
Anchorage, January 7, 2005
David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of
Alaska Fairbanks
59
Coastal Dynamics as a Function of Environmental
Forcing and Coastal Geology/Geocryology
Environmental Sustainability Workshop UA
Anchorage, January 7, 2005
Figure by Volker Rachold, Alfred Wegener
Institute, Potsdam, Germany
David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of
Alaska Fairbanks
IASC Council Meeting at ASSW 2003 (Kiruna, Sweden)
60
Coastal erosion - mechanisms
gt waves gt currents gt normal thermal stress on
frozen environments - sediment collapse - ice
wedge/thaw planes gt sea ice - ice shoves -
freezing entrains sediments gt surges - water
level - water level waves
Environmental Sustainability Workshop UA
Anchorage, January 7, 2005
David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of
Alaska Fairbanks
61
Notice taken at highest levels
Environmental Sustainability Workshop UA
Anchorage, January 7, 2005
David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of
Alaska Fairbanks
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Coastal erosion - forcings
High winds gt storms gt stalled events Ice
marine and terrestrial and threats to it gt
effects on sediments gt sea ice - distance from
coast - open water season length Warming
temperatures (ice)
Environmental Sustainability Workshop UA
Anchorage, January 7, 2005
David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of
Alaska Fairbanks
63
Sea walls at Homer, Shishmaref
Moving a village is a very expensive option

• perhaps can work with and within the existing
  environmental context
• potential at Shishmaref ?

64
In summary

• Coastal erosion potential is increasing
• Problem isnt going to go away
• But instead of the more heavy handed
  (traditional?) engineering solutions, perhaps
  work more with the context
• requires greater understanding of how the arctic
  coastal system functions
• inputs from TK and from research

65
The Bering Sea Storm Oct 18-20, 2004

• Greatest short-term weather impacts of climate
  change are for coastal storms and attendant
  erosion
• Later freeze-up, less extent and thinner sea-ice,
  combined with loss of coastal permafrost, is a
  recipe for erosion from normal Fall storms
• Impacts magnified by greater wave size due to
  increased open-water fetch
• Dozens of Alaskan coastal communities currently
  experiencing significant erosion7 communities
  are critical, and 3 are in imminent peril of
  being washed away (Shishmaref, Newtok, Kivilina).

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The Bering Sea Storm Oct 18-20, 2004

• Most important contributions from NWS are
  Accuracy and Lead Time
• The bomb of October 18-20, 2004, illustrates
  the potential of our contributions
• An ex-tropical cyclone rapidly deepened over a
  period of several days to 940mb
• Such storms normally handled very poorly by the
  models, even in the short-term
• In this case, GFS had large-scale details,
  including amplification and track, predicted at
  5-days lead time
• More importantly, run-to-run consistency was key
  to forecaster confidence in forecast/warning
  issuances.

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The Bering Sea Storm Oct 18-20, 2004

• Lead-time from WFO Fairbanks with first products
  was 60-hrs
• Emergency managers were in continuous contact
  with WFO Fairbanks and the WSOs in Nome and
  Kotzebue before, during and after the event
• MDLs storm surge guidance also quite accurate
  and useful both to NWS staff and EMs
• Evacuations took place and physical mitigations
  were put in place for structure protectionno
  loss of life or significant injuries resulted.

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The Bering Sea Storm Oct 18-20, 2004

• Stillmuch erosion and property damage occurred
• 30M damage in Nome alone
• 50 feet of shoreline lost in Shishmarefthey
  will not survive another such storm
• Congress is looking at relocating imperiled
  villagesan extremely expensive proposition
• This storm showed
• The value of accurate, consistent objective
  guidance in improving forecaster confidence in a
  developing storm
• The value of lead time
• The value of NWS information to emergency
  planners for disaster mitigation.

69
Questions for James, JAJ

• When should theme team members be identified?
• I could see this as taking a lot of time defer
  to later recruit during FY06 proposal
  preparation some incentive within the proposal
  to participate (how does this work with Federal?
  Can people simply be tasked to do something?)
• How will FY06 and beyond proposal preparation
  work? Who is lead? What monies are available?

70
Project goals

• Tom Karl basic objectives, motivation
• Agency level, long-term goal implement the
  following (hindcast, op capacity etc)
• (who are the relevant agencies?)
• gt FY05 level, short-term goal - workshop with
  follow up work establish a blueprint for
  implementation

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Workshop goals

• Essential goals
• Assess agency (federal, state, NGO) needs
• Blueprint for implementation
• Assess present capacity

1) Assess agency (federal, state, NGO) needs
Ø      regarding wind/wave climatologies for AK,
and Ø      forecasts of the same. Ø     
Coordination with Hawaii needs/efforts   2)
Assess present capacity Ø      coastal wind/wave
data availability, existing and planned Ø     
integration Ø      modeling capability   3)
Identify target capacity to meet objective 1