Identifying key technologies in the context of RIS

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Identifying key technologies in the context of
RIS

• Karel Klusacek
• Technology Centre AS CR

IRE Workshop on Regional Foresight Ljubljana, 3-4
March 2003
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What are the key technologies?

• Key technologies (critical technologies)
• Assumed to have the strongest impact on
  sustainable economic development and quality of
  life in the region in a reasonable time horizon
  (10-15 years)
• Assumed to have the potential to create new
  products and industries with big markets
• Result of technology trends (technology
  scenarios) a complex product of socio-economic
  and technological development in the region
• Technologies that are or become key (critical)
  for regional industries
• The knowledge of key technologies is important
  both to regional authorities and companies

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Why should we know the key technologies?

• Because they should play a key role in designed
  regional innovation strategy - RIS project)
• Because their development and market penetration
  deserves to be supported from public resources

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How to identify key technologies?

• There is no universal (the only valid) recipe
  how to identify key technology trends and key
  technologies
• Combination of suitable approaches for particular
  region (industrial, high-tech, rural,
  metropolitan area, ...)
• Technology trends and lists of key technologies
  should be countinuously updated
• Working with alternative development scenarios
  shaping the future - FORESIGHT

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An universal list of key technologies?

• Several attempts to prepare a list of key
  technologies
• US - seven categories that will have a major
  influence on America's economy and national
  security in the coming decades
• Energy
• Environmental Quality
• Information and Communication
• Living Systems
• Manufacturing
• Materials
• Transportation

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Example US list of key technologies

• Only the upper (general) level may perhaps be
  considered universal for most of countries (not
  speaking about regions)
• For instance Living Systems include 13
  sub-themes that are further structured

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Regional dimension (RIS projects)

• Each region has specific needs as of the regional
  development strategy
• Critical (key) technologies and main technology
  trends will differ depending on the type of
  region (industrial, rural, high-tech, ...)
• No universal recipe but some general rules and
  common steps
• Backround mapping of existing regional situation
• Estimation of future scenarios and development
  trends in economic structure
• Identification of technologies that become
  critical in the next 5-10 years

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Regional foresight

• Fully-fledged foresight is time-demanding and
  expensive exercise
• Unlikely to be conducted in ongoing RIS projects
  due to time constraints and budget limitation
• However, regional foresight should be considered
  as a powerful tool beyond the framework of the
  RIS projects regional authorities should
  implement foresight into their permanent
  strategic thinking
• If there is any previous (ongoing) foresight
  exercise in the region the results are
  potentially useful for the RIS projects
• Some elements of foresight may be employed even
  during the RIS projects (following slides)

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Key technologies background mapping

• Looking for answers to the following questions
• What is the current economic structure in the
  region what is the strength of individual
  sectors (contribution to GDP, job creation,
  export share)?
• What are the most important markets?
• What resources do we have technology, research,
  existing businesses, infrastructure?
• What are the regional strong and weak points?
• What are the key (critical) technologies in our
  region now?
• What opportunities and threads are likely in time
  horizon 5-10 years?

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Key technologies future scenarios and
development trends

• Looking for answers to the following questions
• What were the major changes in regional economic
  structure in the last 5-10 years?
• What changes are likely to continue?
• What new changes may be expected?
• What products are likely to change (to emerge)?
• What opportunities and threads are likely in our
  region in time horizon 5-10 years?
• What does that mean for regional economy?
• What are the likely scenarios in the regional
  economic structure (favourable and unfavourable)?
• What could be a list of key (critical)
  technologies in our region in next 5-10 years?

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Where can we get the answers? (1)

• Sources of information
• Literature, Internet useful data but mostly
  quite general, not targeted to individual regions
  otherwise only through paid services
• Existing regional strategic documents if
  available then one of the best sources of
  information, free of charge
• National Statistical Offices data on economic
  structure, major trends in the PAST (delay 2
  years), data are usually provided free of charge
• Investment agencies and consultancy firms
  sectoral analyses, development trends, emerging
  technologies, basic data available usually free
  of charge, detailed data may be costly
• Universities and research institutes (economy)
  data usually free of charge (research
  publications) but sometimes not targeted to
  business

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Where can we get the answers? (2)

• Sources of information
• Foresight exercises sometimes a very broad form
  with general recommendations to policy and
  infrastructure measures, mostly on the national
  level so far, regional foresights are still
  waiting for their moment of glory
• NGOs networking potential is usually strong,
  information capacity is usually limited
• Experts very important and qualified source of
  information commissioned studies, SWOT
  analyses, quality means higher cost, needed good
  job description and monitoring

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Key technologies the Czech example
National technology foresight exercise
(simplified scheme)
Interviews (demand side)
Desk research (strat docs, economy, RD)
Sectoral SWOT analyses
Panels development scenarios, first list of key
technologies, first prioritization procedure,
shortlist of key technologies
Working group second prioritization procedure,
final list of key technologies
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Conclusions

• Foresight is a complex tool that could provide
  essential data to design (and update) the
  Regional Innovation Strategies (RIS)
• If time and budget constraints do not permit to
  perform a fully-fledged regional foresight at
  least some of the foresight components could be
  used in the RIS project
• Regional authorities responsible for the regional
  development should include foresight into their
  strategic activities
• Contact klusacek_at_tc.cas.cz