Demographics and Population Policies

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Demographics and Population Policies

• Globally, population is increasing
• Understand current population patterns
• Evaluate factors that influence rate of change
• Analyze policies that result in changes in
  population size or density

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Ecological Population Models
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Types of Growth

• Geometric Growth
• Growth at constant rate
• of increase over time
• Arithmetic Growth
• Growth at constant
• amount per time

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Human Population History
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Global Population, by Region
Billions
Less Developed Countries
More Developed Countries
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World Population Growth, in Billions
Number of years to add each billion (year)
All of Human History
(1800)
123 yrs (1930)
33 yrs (1960)
14 yrs (1974)
13 yrs (1987)
12 yrs (1999)
14 yrs (2013)
15 yrs (2028)
26 yrs (2054)
Sources First and second billion Population
Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion
United Nations, World Population in 2300 (medium
scenario), 2003.
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Population Growth Rate

• Population Growth Rate
• Crude Birth Rate
• Crude Death Rate
• ( Immigration)
• (- Emigration)

Doubling Time 70 / Population Growth Rate
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Estimated Doubling Times

• Birth Death Growth
  Doubling
• Rate Rate Rate Time
• Global 23 10 1.3 54 yrs
• US 16 9 0.7 100 yrs
• Kenya 43 10 3.3 21 yrs
• Philippines 30 7 2.3 30 yrs
• Denmark 12.5 12 0.05 1,400
  yrs

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Population Cohorts
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Age Structure
Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005
Millions
Less Developed Regions
More Developed Regions
Age
80 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49
40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 17-19 10-16 5-9 0-4
Male
Female
Male
Female
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Demographic Momentum
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Factors that Impact Key Demographic Variables
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Life Expectancy (Understanding Death Rates)
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Regional Variation in Life Expectancy
Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years
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(No Transcript)
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Reaching Replacement Fertility
Average number of children per woman
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Variation in Replacement Level Birth Rates
Decline or Growth, 2002-2025 Percent
Country (average number of children per woman)
China (1.8)
South Korea (1.4)
Trinidad Tobago (1.6)
Italy (1.2)
Russia (1.1)
Bulgaria (1.1)
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Global Birth and Death Rates
Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per
1,000 population
Natural Increase
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Trends in Population Growth Worldwide
Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year
Periods
Percent increase per year
Millions
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2002 Revision (medium scenario),
2003.
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Demographic Transition
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Factors That Result in Lower Fertility Rates

• Status of women
• General education
• Employment opportunities, economic security
• Health and nutritional status (including pre- and
  post-natal care)
• Urbanization
• Family planning methods
• Access to family planning options
• Affordability of family planning
• Comfort with family planning methods
• Age at first birth
• Spacing between children

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Fertility by Female Literacy

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Education for Girls and Women
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Employment Opportunities and Economic Security
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Child Mortality as a Function of Moms Literacy
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Health Care and Reduced Infant Mortality
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Trends in Urbanization, by Region
Urban Population Percent
Source United Nations, World Urbanization
Prospects The 2003 Revision (medium scenario),
2004.
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Contraceptive Availability and Affordability
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Contraceptive Availability and Affordability
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Contraceptive Availability is Not Enough
A study done in the 1990s compared fertility
rates in a number of African and Caribbean
countries with similar access to contraceptives
(Handwerker, W.P. 1991. Women's power and
fertility transition the cases of Africa and the
West Indies. Population and Environment
13(1)55-78).
Caribbean
Africa

• Dominican Republic TFR 2.8
• Jamaica TFR 2.5
• Trinidad and Tobago 1.7

• Benin TFR 6.1
• Chad TFR 6.7
• Mali TFR 7.0

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Age at Marriage, Sub-Saharan African Countries
Median Age at First Marriage, Women 20 to 24 at
Time of Survey Years
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Demographic Window

• One generation window of economic growth at
  stages III and IV
• Investments in human capital during this window
  create economic boon

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Human Capital

• Human capital is result of
• Investments in education and in health
• Increases in human capital result in
• Increased life expectancy
• Decreased morbidity
• Increased productivity at work
• Changed behaviors at home

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Cairo ICPD 1994Consensus Goals

• gender equity
• ? consumption patterns
• embed population policy w/in economic development
• ? access to educationesp girls
• ? health of infants and children
• ? access to family planning, reproductive health
  care
• ? paternal role in child-rearing, family planning

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Primary Goal of Population Policy Speed Up
Demographic Transition
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Different Approaches to Population Policy

• Top-Down, Technocratic Approach
• emphasizes contraceptive availability, monetary
  incentives for reduced fertility
• often based on national, regional targets for
  reduced birth rates
• Bottom-Up or Holistic Approach
• Emphasizes CONTEXT within which women, couples
  make decisions re family size
• Works to change conditions that encourage high
  birth rates and create conditions where couples
  WANT to adopt family planning practices

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Evaluating Success of Population Policies

• Growth Fertility
• Country Rate Rate
• 2002 (1980) 2002 (1970)
• China 0.8 (1.4) 1.8 (5.7)
• Thailand 0.8 (1.8) 1.8 (6.4)
• India 1.7 (2.1) 3.2 (5.3)

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Population and Environment

• Human carrying capacity
• Have we exceeded it?
• How will we know?
• Effective measures of carrying capacity?