Human Population Demography and Related Issues

1
Human Population Demography and Related Issues

• APES Chapter 11
• January 2005

2
Key Concepts

• Factors affecting population size
• Human population trends problems
• Managing population problems
• Achieving sustainable populations

3
Is the World Overpopulated?

• 8-9 billion people by 2050
• Limited resources
• Environmental impacts
• Some say no
• Economic growth
• Religion and population growth
• Freedom and population growth
• Poverty
• Ecological footprint

4
The Population Debate

• Can the world provide an adequate standard of
  living for 3 billion more people without causing
  widespread environmental damage?
• Is the earth already overpopulated?
• What measures should be taken to slow growth?
• Instead of asking what is the carrying capacity,
  some believe we should be asking what the optimum
  sustainable population of the earth might be
• Should people be allowed to have as many children
  as they want?
• What is your opinion on this issue?
• See page 232 for details of the debate

5
How Did the Human Population Increase So Rapidly?

• Human intelligence and adaptation
• Agriculture (The Green Revolution)
• Medical technologies and sanitation
• Improved life expectancy and reduced infant
  mortality

6
Factors Affecting Human Population Size

• Population change equation
• Population change
• (Births Immigration) (Deaths Emigration)
• Crude birth rate
• Crude death rate

7
Crude Birth and Death Rates

• Demographers use the crude birth rate
• ( of live births per 1000 people per year)
• Crude death rate
• ( of deaths per 1000 per year)
• Birth and death rates are coming down worldwide
  but death rates have fallen more sharply than
  birth rates
• 216K people added every day (mostly where?)

8
Ave Crude Birth and Death Rates
9
Animation
Current and projected population sizes by region.
10
Rate of Population Change

• Annual rate of change
• Birth rate-Death rate TIMES 100
• 1,000 persons
• Or (Birth rate-Death rate)/10
• N(t) N(0) x ert
• where N(t) is the size of a quantity after t
  intervals have elapsed, N(0) is the initial value
  of the quantity, e is the base of the natural
  logarithm, r is the average growth rate over the
  interval in question, and t is the number of
  intervals.
• Doubling time
• Rule of 70

11
Key Trends in Population Growth

• Old people now outnumber young people
• Not uniform around globe 11 of least dev.
  Countries have 50 of population aged 23 or
  younger (most in Africa)
• Urban now outnumber rural people
• World Population growth rate has slowed from a
  peak of 2.1/yr (1965) to 1.1 today
• Never before the 20th century has a fall in the
  global population growth rate been voluntary
• During the same period, the size of the worlds
  pop increased by 97 from 3.2B to 6.4B (still
  adding 74M people every year!)
• Enormous demographic shift occurring
• The vast majority of growth happening in
  developing countries
• In 1950, less developed had twice the population,
  by 2050, the ratio will exceed 6 to 1
• Immigration the real wild card

12
Urbanization Issues

• We will not cover this much in class
• You are responsible for taking notes on the key
  concepts and points for pages 238-251
• These pages are fair game for tests...
• But only a few questions might be asked
• VIDEO CLIP
• MEGACITIES (14-22 8 minutes)

13
Increasing Populations in Developing Countries
14
Major Population Growth In

• Half the global increase will be accounted for
  by
• India
• Pakistan
• Nigeria
• Dem. Republic of Congo
• Bangladesh
• Uganda
• USA (can you guess why?)
• Ethiopia
• China
• Germany, Japan, Italy, Russia will all lose
  population

15
Annual Population Growth Ratestop big
16
Effects of Population Declinestop small

• 40 nations have stable or declining populations
• Rapid declines can create severe social and
  economic problems
• Labor and social security problems
• Social and economic impacts of AIDS

17
Describing Population Changes

• Replacement-level fertility (RLF)
• Total fertility rate (TFR)
• Projecting global populations

18
Fertility Rates

• Replacement Level Fertility (RLF)
• of children a couple must bear to replace
  themselves
• Slightly higher than 2 per couple (2.1 in
  developed and 2.5 in developing) WHY?
• Does reaching RLF mean an immediate halt in pop
  growth?
• No b/c ______________________
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
• An estimate of the average of children a woman
  will have during child bearing years
• Assumes that, between the ages of 15 and 49, she
  bears children at the same rate as women did this
  year

19
Changes in Global Fertility Rates

• In 2003
• Ave global TFR was 2.8 children per woman
• 1.5 in developed (down from 2.5 in 1950)
• 3.1 in developing (down from 6.5 in 1950)
• Still far above global replacement level!
• UN population projections to 2050 vary depending
  upon worlds projected average TFR

20
Decline in Total Fertility Rates
Fig 11-5
21
Figure 11-6
22
Projected Population as of 2050
TFR HighRemain constant with 2005 Med2.1
Assumes same downward trend Low1.7
23
Fertility Rates and Poverty

• 97 of the future population growth is expected
  to take place in developing countries
• Acute poverty is a way of life for 1.4 B
• Between 2003 and 2050, the population of
  developing countries is projected to increase to
  8 billion from 5.2 billion
• Why would poor women have more children???????????
  ?????????

24
What factors affect TFR?

• Importance of children in labor force
• Cost of raising and educating children
• Availability of public/private pension
• Urbanization
• Access to birth control
• Educational/employment opportunities for women
• Infant mortality rate
• Ave age at which women start having children
• Availability of birth control and legal abortions
• Cultural and religious practices

25
What factors affect death rates?

• REMEMBERRapid increase in worlds pop due
  mostly to decline in crude death rates (not
  births)
• More people started living longer b/c
• Increased food supplies and distribution
• Better nutrition
• Improved public heath (immunizations etc)
• Improved sanitation and hygiene
• Safer water supplies
• AIDS and other diseases

26
Two Indicators of Overall Health of People in a
Country

• Life Expectancy
• Ave of years an infant can expect to live
• Global LE increased from 48 to 67 (76 in
  developed 65 in developing) 1955-2003
• In worlds poorest 55 yrs or less
• Infant Mortality Rate
• of babies out of 1000 that die before 1yr
• Usually indicates lack of food, poor nutrition,
  poor health care, and high incidence of disease
• From 1965 to 2003, IMR dropped from 20 to 7 in
  developed and 118 to 61 in developing
• Still means 8M infants die of preventable causes
  each year (22,000 per day)

27
Population Age Structures

• Even if global RLF level were magically lowered
  to 2.1, the population would continue to grow for
  at least 50 yrs because there are so many who
  have yet to reach child bearing years
• Population age structure diagrams help
  demographers understand future trends
• Any country with many people below age 15 has a
  powerful built in momentum to increase
• In 2003, 30 of the people were aged 15 or less!!
• Study the population pyramids!

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Population Age Structures
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Expanding Rapidly Guatamala Nigeria Saudi Arabia
Expanding Slowly United States Australia Canada
Stable Spain Austria Greece
Declining Germany Bulgaria Italy
Prereproductive ages 0-14
Reproductive ages 15-44
Postreproductive ages 45-85
Fig. 7-8, p. 135
29
Population Pyramid of The World
30
US Trends

• From 1946 to 1964, the US pop increased by 79
  million (baby boom) (figs 11-7 to 11-9)
• Baby boomers now make up 50 of all adult
  Americans
• Dominate demand for goods/services
• Important political group
• Baby Bust Generation (Gen X)
• People born between 1965 and 1976
• Retired baby boomers will likely use their
  political clout to force the Gen Xers to pay
  higher income, health care, and social security
  taxes
• Holy Intergenerational Warfare Batman!
• Echo-Boom (born 1977 to 2003)

31
Tracking the US Baby Boom Generation
32
Demographic Transition Model

• DTM is a hypothesis (that has shown to be true in
  many instances) involving population changes in a
  given country over time
• As countries become more industrialized, first
  their death rates and then their birth rates
  decline
• According to the hypothesis, this transition
  occurs over 4 phases

33
Demographic Transition

• 1st
• Preindustrial Phase
• Little pop growth b/c harsh living conditions
  lead to high birth and high death rate
• 2nd
• Transitional Phase
• Industrialization begins, food supply increases,
  and health care improves
• Death rate drops and birth rate stays high
• Pop grows dramatically

• 3rd
• Industrial Stage
• Birth rate drops and approaches death rate
• Industrialization and modernization become
  widespread
• Pop growth slows
• 4th Postindustrial
• BRDR (ZPG)
• 38 countries accounting for 13 are in this stage

34
Demographic Transition
35
Animation
Demographic transition model interaction.
36
Role of Family Planning

• See Fig 11-10--list of methods/effectiveness
• FP has been responsible for at least half of the
  drop in TFRs in developing countries
• Reduces the number of legal and illegal abortions
  each year
• Decreased risk of death from pregnancy
• Developing Countries 10 use in 1960s to 51 use
  today
• But, still 250-350M women want access but dont
  yet have it
• UN says it would cost 17B/yr (8 days of military
  expenditures) (about 5 per person) to do this!

37
Issues About Access to Birth Controlstop big

• Medical infrastructure
• Financial issues
• Cultural/societal taboo issues
• Education Issues
• Dont know its available or how to use it
  properly
• Lack of access results in thousands of medically
  unsafe/sanitary abortions
• See VIDEO Clips
• Desperate Decisions in Ethiopia (22-29 7min)
• No choice in La Paz Bolivia (69-75 6min)

38
Role of the Status of Women

• Studies show that women tend to have fewer and
  healthier children and live longer when they have
  access to education and to paying jobs and live
  in societies where they are not oppressed
• Make up 50 of population but
• Do almost all domestic and child rearing
• 60-80 of work growing food, getting H2O
• 66 of all hours worked 10 of worlds income
• Own less than 1 of worlds land
• Many do not have right to own land, inherit
  estates, or borrow money

39
Economic Rewards and Penalties

• Some believe we need to go beyond family planning
  and offer economic rewards and penalties to help
  slow population growth
• for those who are sterilized or use
  contraceptives
• Usually only those done having a family will do
  this!
• China penalizes couples who have more than one or
  two via taxes, fees, etc
• Some coercion has been used in the past (India)

40
VIDEO Clips on India/China

• SEE VIDEO CLIPS
• Son Mania (37-44 7min)
• Family Planning Abuse in India (54-60 6min)
• One child policy of China (132-139 7min)

41
Solutions Influencing Population Size

• Family planning
• Improve health care
• Empowering women
• Developing national population policies
• Improve education, especially for women
• Increase involvement of men in parenting
• Reduce poverty
• Reduce unsustainable consumption

42
YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR

• Know the stuff presented about China and India
  (sec 11-4 these two countries are the poster
  children of these issues)
• You are responsible for taking notes on the key
  concepts and points for pages 238-251
• I will not cover these in class but they are fair
  game for tests...

43
Case Study Family Planning in China

• Economic incentives
• Free medical care for participants
• Preferential treatment for participants
• Very coercive and intrusive
• Human rights violations
• See video!
• http//www.care2.com/channels/ecoinfo/population