One Country Two Systems: Below Replacement Fertility

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One Country Two Systems Below Replacement
Fertility Rural-urban Migration in China

• Dr. Xin YUAN 
• Institute of Population Development
• Nankai University, Tianjin ,China
• Dr. Zhongwei ZHAO
• Department Sociology Program
• The Australian National University, Australia

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1. Data and concepts? Data

• Chinas population censuses in 2000, 1990, 1982
  and 1964
• Each year population statistic data from the SBB
  of China during 1950 and 2002
• 1 per thousand national fertility survey dada in
  1982 and 2 per thousand national fertility
  survey data in 1988 by SFPC

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? Concepts

• Permanent migrants migrants who have obtained
  permanent household registration statue (hukou)
  at their place of destination
• Temporary migrants (floating population)
  migrants who migrate from their original hukou
  registered areas, but their hukou do NOT changed
  with the migration.
• Inter-province floating population who migrate
  across the border of province with a long
  distance.

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• In 2000 census, floating population include
• ----who do not have permanent registered
  hukou at their destination province and have
  stayed there at least six months
• ---- who live in the destination province
  less than six months but have left their hukou
  province more than six months
• ----who have hukou from other provinces and
  are still waiting for transferring their hukou to
  the province where they are living

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2.Two difference fertility regimes

• TFR decline in whole of China. The government
  launched its nationwide family planning program
  in the early 1970s. TFR dropped from
  approximately 6 to less than 3 in the first
  decade, from 2.6 to the level of replacement in
  the second decade, and further decreased to 1.8
  or lower in the third decade.

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• difference fertility regimes between rural and
  urban areas

Proportion of population by variant birth control
policies--2000
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• Current FP policy (general items)
• Han one in urban and one half in rural, meet
  one of 6-7 stipulated conditions, can get one
  more.
• Ethnics a. 2 in urban and 2-3 in rural for most
  ethnics b. free for ethnics that population is
  less than 50 thousand c)free for Tibetan
• Interval at least 3 or 4 year
• Only one child married each other, can get two.
  Even only one child married with non-one child in
  rural areas, can get two in 7 provinces.

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• Demographic transition. Dramatic demographic
  transition in China fast and short term.
  However, the urban began the transition before
  implementation of family planning policies and
  has completed it now, but the rural started the
  transition after FPP and is still in the
  processing of the transition.

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Early 1970s Late Longer less
mid-1970s 3 ok 2 not less
1984 One half children
End-1970s 2 ok 1 not less
1980 One child
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Changes of TFRs in Urban and Rural Areas in China
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Changes of TFR in China, BJ, SH TJ
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Rural and Urban Demographic Transition in China
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• Long-term low fertility in large cities have
  caused rapid population aging and shortage of
  labor force, or even total population,but there
  are a lot of surplus working age population in
  the rural.

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3. Rural-urban migration its implications on
urban population

• A great number of rural-urban temporary migrants
  in the last 25 years.
• Typical labor temporary migrants
• Slow down and reduce the population aging in the
  big cities.
• Lighten the elderly dependent ratio and total
  dependence ratio in the cities.
• Increase the size and proportion of labor force
  in the total population in the cities.

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Increase of size of temporary migrants in China
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147,000,000
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Percentage of floating and hukou population
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Age structure of floating population
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Living time of floating population in SH in 2000

• 2006 survey in Beijing
• 1/5 of total households is floatings
• 51.4 floatings have lived in BJ more than five
  years
• 41.2 floatings are whole family floating

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Age pattern of Shanghai, 1964 2000
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Age Pattern in Beijing, 1964 2000
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Age patterns of total,hukou floating
populationShanghai - 2000
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Age patterns of total,hukou floating
populationBeijing - 2000
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Age patterns of total,hukou floating
populationTianjin - 2000
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Dependent ratios Total population, hukou
population temporary migrants in Beijing,
Shanghai Tianjin in 2000
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Age structure of total population, hukou and
floating population
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5. Conclusion

• Population transition started earlier in the
  urban than the rural and China as a whole.
• No evidence shows the low fertility would bound
  up in the urban, esp. in the large cities, even
  the family planning policy is more relaxed than
  before.
• Syndrome of low fertility has been appeared in
  the urban.
• Rural-urban temporary migrations are the
  indispensable force of urban development.
• Must attention demographic effects of both sides
  of rural and urban

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Thanks
yuanxin_at_nankai.edu.cn