Building Early Warning Systems

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Building Early Warning Systems
Tennessees Graduation Success Summit March 18,
2009 Presenter Terry Grobe, Jobs for the Future
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What Do We Know?

• We can predict over half of dropouts by 6th grade
  and nearly 80 by 9th grade based on a few school
  related factors
• Districts are doing studies to determine their
  strongest predictors and in what grades these
  first become predictive
• Schools are using this data to flag youth when
  they first start to struggle/fall off-track and
  provide intervention
• Best interventions tend to be tiered-utilizing
  whole school, targeted and intensive supports
  (youth with consistent and multiple indicators)

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8th Grade Signals(Philadelphia research)

• Three factors gave students at least a
• 75 probability of dropping out
• 1. Failing math in 8th grade
• 2. Failing English in 8th grade
• 3. Attending less than 80 of the time
• Many students showed distress signals by 6th
  grade
• (Balfanz Herzog)

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Big 4 in 6th Grade

• Failing Math
• Failing English
• Attendance lt80
• At least one poor behavior mark
• (Balfanz and Herzog)

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9th Grade Signals

• Three factors gave students at least a
• 75 probability of dropping out
• 1. Earning fewer than 2 credits
• 2. Not being promoted to 10th grade
• 3. Attending less than 70 of the time
• (Balfanz Herzog)

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Chicago Consortium
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Chicago Consortium
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Chicago Consortium
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Chicago Consortium
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What Tools Help Schools Build Early Warning
Systems

• Results of district and school-based
  retrospective studies
• State/local data systems that help flag
  struggling and off-track youth using predictive
  indicators
• Data sheets that help school personnel track and
  report interventions and outcomes for these youth
  (eg BPEs composite learning index)

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Informational Sources

• What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating
  in Chicago Public Schools (Consortium on Chicago
  School Research U Chicago)
• Identifying Potential Dropouts Key Lessons for
  Building an Early Warning System (Craig Jerald,
  for JFF and Achieve, Inc.)
• Developing Early Warning Systems to Identify
  Potential High School Dropouts (National High
  School Center)
• What Your Community Can Do to End its Dropout
  Crisis (Bob Balfanz, CSOS Johns Hopkins)
• Boston Plan for Excellence