Security in Iraq

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Security in Iraq

• FAO Association Monterey Brown-bag luncheon
• Abbas Kadhim
• Assistant Professor
• Dept. of National Security Affairs
• Naval Postgraduate School
• akkadhim_at_nps.edu

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What is the Insurgency?

• An organized, protracted politico-military
  struggle designed to weaken government control
  and legitimacy while increasing insurgent
  control.
• US Army Counterinsurgency Handbook
• Goals
• Overthrow current political order, or Break away
  and create autonomous area

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Insurgency before 2003

• Islamic Resistance
• Dawa party since 1958
• Marsh Groups
• Islamists
• Army Deserters (1980 1988)
• Kurdish Insurgency (1921 2003)

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Insurgency After 2003

• Causes of the Insurgency
• Local
• mistrust among communities
• legacy of the past
• competition for opportunities

Executions
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Insurgency After 2003

• Causes of the Insurgency
• Us-Related
• tolerating looting and lawlessness
• "Freedom's untidy, and free people are free to
  make mistakes and commit crimes and do bad
  things," Rumsfeld said.
• calling a liberation an occupation
• Noting the letter of 8 May 2003 from the
  Permanent Representatives of the United States of
  America and the United Kingdom of Great Britain
  and Northern Ireland to the President of the
  Security Council (S/2003/538) and recognizing the
  specific authorities, responsibilities, and
  obligations under applicable international law
  of these states as occupying powers under unified
  command (the Authority),
• UNSC 1483 (2003)
• dismantling the state
• CPA Order No. 2.

"Stuff happens," Rumsfeld said
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What is the Iraqi Insurgency?

• It is not a single insurgency
• The many insurgencies
• The Baath Party and elements of the old regime
• Disenchanted Iraqis
• Foreign Fighters
• Common Criminals
• Goals?!

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The Tipping PointThe Surge

• Sons of Iraq and Sahwa Groups
• Sahwa of Anbar
• Imitators and Motives
• Possible Long-Term Problems
• Short term solution and long term conflicts
• Government Awakening
• Basra Campaign (March 08)
• Diyala Campaign
• Musol the Unfinished
• Business

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Non-Violent Counterinsurgency

• Employment
• It may make financial incentives for
  participating in insurgent or sectarian violence
  more appealing to military-age males, According
  to one Pentagon assessment.
• Reconstruction
• government investigators have described the
  U.S. reconstruction effort in Iraq as a failure
  that wasted billions. The Washington Post
  12/15/08
• Services
• The lack of essential services has replaced
  security as the major concern in Iraq, pointing
  to the progress the country has been making,
  according to a recent Defense Department report.
  1/14/09

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Non-Violent Counterinsurgency

• Anti-Corruption Measures
• Corruption is the second insurgency
• 4 billion a year
• Iraq is 2nd most corrupt country on earth!
• Types of Corruption
• political, financial, and administrative
• Deterrence
• Building a strong, professional security
  forces
• Supporting the independence of the judiciary

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Questions?