Delphi

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Delphi

• AED 615
• Q. Molina

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Objectives

• Become familiar with the social science research
  method known as Delphi.

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Prerequisite Tools

• There are no Prerequisite tools required for the
  Delphi Research Method

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Purpose

• Delphi is a group process for eliciting,
  collating, and generally directing informed
  (expert) judgment towards a consensus on a
  particular topic.

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Uses

• Establishing goals and priorities
• Identifying the dimensions and the attributes of
  a problem
• Providing forecasts
• Clarifying positions and delineating differences
  between group members
• Gathering information from a group whose members
  do not meet fact-to-face and wish to retain their
  anonymity

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Description

• Delphi is a method in which individuals focus on
  and debate issues anonymously.
• Typically conducted by mail or e-mail utilizing
  several rounds of questionnaires.
• Results of each round are collected, collated and
  analyzed by a design team.
• Questions for the next round are based on the
  analysis process.
• Generally provides convergence of opinions, but
  may provide the basis for disagreement.

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Advantages within Delphi

• Anonymity
• More accurate representation of an individuals
  feelings
• No group meetings are required.
• A large heterogeneous group may participate on an
  equal basis.
• Allows participants to be geographically
  scattered.

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Limitations within Delphi

• Time may eliminate Delphi as a possibility.
• Is not useful for individuals who have
  difficulties reading or writing.
• High participant interest and commitment is
  assumed or the quantity and quality of responses
  will decrease with each round.
• By design Delphi does not allow for instant
  communication or intellectual stimulation.

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Required Resources

• Level of Effort design team requirements
• Skill Level questionnaire written free of bias.
• Time Required six weeks to complete 4 rounds.

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Inputs

• Respondents should
• Have special experience or knowledge to share.
• Represent a cross-section of opinions.
• Be motivated to participate.
• Questionnaire should
• Be as short as possible
• Be adapted to the language most familiar to the
  participants area of expertise
• Elicit useful responses at the level of
  abstraction required

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Tool Output

• Is generally a convergence of opinion.
• Frequency distribution
• Ranking of responses to a particular question.

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Schedule for Delphi
Delbecq, et al. (1975)
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The Recipe

• Develop the basis for a Delphi
• Design Questionnaire 1
• Solicit responses for questionnaire 1
• Analyze questionnaire 1
• Design questionnaire 2
• Solicit responses for questionnaire 2
• Analyze questionnaire 2
• Design questionnaire 3
• Solicit responses for questionnaire 3
• Analyze questionnaire 3
• Design questionnaire 4
• Solicit responses for questionnaire 4
• Analyze questionnaire 4
• Closure

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Design Team Size

• Large 12 or more people.
• Medium 2 12 people.
• Individual

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Audience Size

• Large 30 or more people.
• Medium 10 to 30 people.
• Small Under 10 people.

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Theory

• Arguments have been made to support the claim
  that the Delphi method is superior to
  conventional uses of groups in problem solving or
  forecasting. (Gordon and Helmer 1964)

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Journal Article

• Journal of Agricultural Education Article
  Utilizing the Delphi Method

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Bibliography

• Dalkey, N. An Experimental Study of Group
  Opinion. Futures 1 (June 1969)
  282-288.
• Delbecq, Andre van de Ven, Andrew and
  Gustafson, David. Group Techniques for Program
  Planning A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi.
  Chicago, Ill. Scott Foresman, 1975
• Gordon, Theodore J., and Helmer, Olaf. Report on
  a Long-Range Forecasting Study. Rand Paper
  P-2982. Santa Monica, CA. Rand Corporation,
  September 1964
• http//www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/wcmn203.nsf/LinkView
  /D7B9E063A2B4FFAFCA25707E00248822EBB2EB2F9035229BC
  A257091000BF7A6

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A Little Short of 25 30 Minutes