MEASURING MILITARY CAPABILITIES

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MEASURING MILITARY CAPABILITIES

• MILITARY EXPENDITURE ARMS ACQUISITIONS
• AND THEIR RELATION TO MILITARY CAPABILITIES

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Global Military Expenditure1996-2005 in constant
USD billions
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OAS Military ExpenditureShares 2001-2005
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OAS Military Expenditure1996-2005 in constant
USD billions
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Global Arms Imports1996-2005 in SIPRI TIV
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OAS Arms Imports1996-2005 in SIPRI TIV
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OAS Arms ImportsShares 2001-2005
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What is wrong with the previous pictures?

• They do NOT give good indications of military
  capability
• Bean Counting
• Military expenditure and arms acquisitions do NOT
  make military capability - they are ONLY two of
  many indicators
• They are very weak indicators - certainly when
  not disaggregated

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How then to measure military capability?

• Military capability is in the end only really
  measurable on the battlefield
• Second (and preferred) option is using different
  quantitative and qualitative data

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What data are needed?

• Quantity
• What is there? Holdings existing inventory
  acquisition modernization - deletion)
• Quality
• How good is it? Technical parameters age
• How is it used? How good are the users?
• What logistic support is there? How long will the
  platforms last?
• What is the balance of equipment?

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Equipment data needed

• Numbers
• Platforms
• Types (detailed)
• Age and modernizations
• Consumption goods
• Ammunition
• Spares

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Context data needed

• Military context
• Basing
• Doctrine
• Training
• Network or integration of forces
• Policy context
• Defence and foreign policy
• Culture - national will to use military force

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Where to get data?

• Numbers
• Registers (UNROCA, OAS - with as much detail as
  possible)
• Budgets (disaggregated)
• Background
• Policy statements (white papers) and policy
  practice
• Training and operation manuals
• Observation (exchanges)
• Joint exercises and operations

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How relevant is measuring of military
capabilities?

• A must in areas of tension
• Of much less relevance for international
  relations in peaceful environments
• But relevant for internal use (measuring of own
  military capabilities)
• Synchronizing defence with foreign policy

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Where does that leave UN MILEX mechanism?

• Good - disaggregated data
• Good - standardization
• Bad - voluntary
• Bad - very few report
• Never meant really to be used for measuring
  military capabilities, recognizing threats and
  early warning

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Where does that leave UNROCA?

• Good - numbers and types
• Good - possibility for background info and data
• Bad - only imports
• Bad - only traditional aggressive weapons
• Bad - voluntary
• Bad - important importers do not report

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Where does that leave OSCE exchange of
information?

• Good - mandatory
• Good - numbers and types
• Good - including some support/force multiplier
  systems
• Good - verification
• Good - reporting on planned acquisition
• Good - acquisitions and holdings
• Good - info on doctrine and policy
• But not in region in much need of it

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Where does that leave OAS Convention?

• Good - mandatory
• Good - numbers and types
• Good - includes all acquisitions
• Bad - no holdings
• Bad - only traditional aggressive weapons
• Bad - no background info
• Bad? - very few report
• But not in a region in much need of it