Global Weather Prediction -Possible developments in the next decades-

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Global Weather Prediction-Possible developments
in the next decades-

• Professor Lennart Bengtsson
• ESSC, University of Reading
• MPI for Meteorology, Hamburg

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Global Weather Prediction-Possible developments
in the next decades-

• Introduction (some personal remarks)
• Predictive skill in NWP
• The future of NWP
• Concluding remarks

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The First Operational NWP

• October 1954, Dalamanövern
• Meteorological Institute, Stockholm
• and the Swedish Airforce

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The First Operational NWP
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The First Operational NWP
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The First Operational NWP
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Predictive skill and Predictability Northern
hemisphere 500hPa height Winter
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Predicting super hurricane Floyd at ECMWF
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The future of NWP

• Modeling and data-assimilation
• Extended predictions
• Computational possibilities
• Provisions of forecast information to users

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L.F. Richardson, 1922Imagine a large hall like
a theatre, except that the circles and the
galleries go rightround through the space
usually occupied by the stage. The walls of this
chamber are painted to form a map of the globe.
The ceiling represents the north polar regions,
the tropics in the upper circle, and the
antarctic in the pit. A myriad computers are at
work upon the weather of the part of the map
where each sits, but each computer attends only
to one equation or part of an equation. The work
of each region is co-ordinated by an official of
higher rank. Numerous little night signs
display the instantaneous values so that
neighbouring computers can read them. From the
floor of the pit a tall pillar rises to half the
height of the hall. It carries a large pulpit on
its top. In this sits the man in charge of the
whole theatre. One of his duties is to maintain a
uniform speed of progress in all parts of the
globe. In this respect he is like the conductor
of an orchestra in which the instruments are
slide-rules and calculating machines. But instead
of waving a baton he turns a beam of rosy light
upon any region that is running ahead of the
rest, and a beam of blue light upon those who are
behindhand.Four senior clerks at the central
pulpit are collecting the future weather as its
is being computed, and despatching it by
pneumatic carrier to a quiet room. There it will
be coded and telephoned to the radio transmitting
stations
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Richardsons dream
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Modeling and data-assimilation

• Ensemble prediction
• Non-hydrostatic models
• Resolution issues
• Physical parameterization
• Data-assimilation

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Ensemble prediction
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• Predictability of weather

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1 Feb 1953 00UTCSurface Pressure Gusts
Analysis
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Surface Pressure 1 Feb 1953 00UTC Analysis
Forecast 1 Day
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Surface Pressure 1 Feb 1953 00UTC Analysis
Forecast 1.5 Day
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Surface Pressure 1 Feb 1953 00UTC Analysis
Forecast 2 Day
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10 m Gusts 1 Feb 1953 00UTC
Analysis Forecast 1 Day
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10 m Gusts 1 Feb 1953 00UTC
Analysis Forecast 1.5 Day
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10 m Gusts 1 Feb 1953 00UTC
Analysis Forecast 2 Day
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Ensemble Forecasts D3.5
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Ensemble Forecasts D4.5
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Data assimilation

• The physical aspects of data-assimilation
  
• ( What are the key observations?)
  
• Coupled atmosphere - ocean models

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Extended predictionWhere are the limits?
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Predictive skill and Predictability Northern
hemisphere 500hPa height Winter
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An example of potential super-predictability

• Simulation of QBO
• Giorgetta et al., 2003
• ECHAM 5 T42/L90

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Supercomputer performance

• 1970s Mega flops
• 1990s Giga flops
• 2000s Tera flops
• 2010s Peta flops
• 2020s Exa flops?

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Weather on InternetICM Warsaw

• 48hr forecasts four times a day
• (http//weather.icm.edu.pl/english/weathfrcst/weat
  herforecast.html)
• Meteogrammes
• (http//weather.icm.edu.pl/index2eng.php?ver)

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meteorogram number x 4, y 17
19.05.2004 , start t0 000 GMT
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Concluding remarksNWP in the future

• Non-hydrostatic models and advanced
  data-assimilation
• Increased skill in predicting extreme events
• Ensemble prediction for all time-scales
• Major improvements in extended prediction
• Very powerful computers and communication systems
  will change the way NWP is being done today
• Major changes in the global structure of NWP
• Many users will be making their own forecasts

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END